Barring any unforeseen circumstances, three political parties would likely emerge frontrunners in the 2027 election as the deadline for parties to submit their membership lists to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ends.

Deadline for political parties to submit their membership registers to the electoral umpire ended by midnight yesterday, May 10.

The All Progressives Congress (APC), the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the New Democratic Congress (NDC) may emerge front runners and the same presidential candidates who went head-to-head in 2023 may again slug it out but on different platforms.

The 2023 presidential election was a three-horse race with President Bola Tinubu as the APC candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi as candidate of the Labour Party (LP).

Four years on, the PDP and the LP, two of the three main opposition parties in 2023, have both been engulfed in internal crises such that their key figures have been compelled to seek new political platforms. Atiku has defected to the ADC while Obi has moved to the NDC.

Obi has publicly insisted that he must be on the ballot in 2027, and has further indicated his intention to serve a single term if elected and with the decision of the NDC to zone its presidential position to the South, his emergence as the NDC’s presidential candidate is all but certain. Under this arrangement, the NDC said the ticket will be rotated to the north in 2031, and this has been accepted by former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who is believed will emerge as Obi’s running mate.

Three aspirants have indicated interest to contest the presidential election on the platform of the ADC and they are Atiku, former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi and Mohamed Hayatu-Deen and the party has not made it clear if it will zone its ticket.

For the PDP, the possibility of the former ruling party which has been fractured by a protracted leadership crisis of fielding a presidential candidate appears uncertain as the deadline for parties to submit their membership list to the electoral commission elapsed on May 10.

The PDP is split into two factions. One is associated with the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister and former Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and the other is aligned with the Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde. Both factions have been engaged in a protracted tug of war over who constitutes the authentic national leadership of the party.

In the most recent Supreme Court judgement, a Certified True Copy (CTC) of the judgment indicated that the court upheld the suspension of Wike’s ally, Sam Anyanwu as national secretary but as of Sunday, May 10, 2026, the electoral commission’s official website still lists Abdul Rahman Mohamed as national chairman and Anyanwu as national secretary of the PDP. Both of these figures are aligned with the Wike faction, and their continued listing on the INEC portal suggests that the commission has yet to effect any court order that might alter the recognised leadership of the party.

INEC’s decision to continue listing Wike’s allies as chairman and secretary respectively, stands in contrast to its swift delisting of former Senate President David Mark and former Minister for Interior, Rauf Aregbesola as the national chairman and secretary of the ADC.

When the Supreme Court ruled that the ADC’s leadership should revert to the status quo, INEC acted swiftly and interpreted the ruling to mean that Mark and Aregbesola have been removed. Both leaders were immediately delisted from INEC’s website.

A PDP source told Daily Sun that the fact that INEC has not effected any corresponding change in the party’s leadership despite the Supreme Court’s ruling is being interpreted as a sign that the commission is waiting for more clarity (The Sun)