Months before she became Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi said she’d been invited to meet US President Donald Trump.

It was November, just after his election victory and several figures close to Trump had urged her to visit Washington, she posted on her official X account.

But she declined, insisting then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba should be the first Japanese lawmaker to meet the new US leader.

“However, I aim to work hard toward holding a position that would allow me to meet him in a dignified manner someday,” she wrote.

That “someday” has arrived.

Takaichi’s first major test on the global stage comes as she heads to the ASEAN summit in Malaysia and the APEC meeting in South Korea, trips that will reveal how much of her trademark conservative rhetoric she brings into office. But the most closely watched moment will come between those summits, when Trump visits Tokyo to meet Emperor Naruhito and sits down with Takaichi for the first time on Tuesday.

Aboard Air Force One on his way to Asia, Trump spoke highly of Takaichi.

The pair spoke on the phone Saturday, in what Trump called a “very good” phone call. “She great, beautiful … She’s very friendly,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One following the call.

For Japan’s new leader, the stakes are high. Though the US-Japan alliance is one of the world’s strongest, Takaichi’s limited diplomatic experience and Trump’s unpredictability make their first meeting a critical test.

Their talks are expected to cover tariffs, regional security and Japan’s defense spending, all points of tension in recent months. Within Japan’s conservative ruling party, some worry Washington’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific is fading, as it demands more from allies.

At home, Takaichi faces her own challenges. Her Liberal Democratic Party is still recovering from corruption scandals, and her performance abroad could shape both her political future and her party’s recovery. Her approval rating sits at a strong 71%, a number her team will be keen to preserve.

Possible bumps in the road

Defense will top the agenda.

Under former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. Takaichi now wants to accelerate that timeline to March 2026, calling for Japan to “proactively advance the fundamental strengthening of its defense capabilities” at her first address in Japan’s parliament. But how the buildup will be financed remains unclear. With the yen weakening and Takaichi pushing tax cuts, she may struggle to fund her ambitions.

Trade could prove equally thorny. Since returning to office, Trump has reignited his tariff wars, targeting even longtime allies. After months of talks, tariffs on Japanese goods dropped from 25% to 15%, while Tokyo agreed to invest $550 billion in US industries. But many details remain vague, and Takaichi is expected to seek more clarity.

She’s also brought in veterans to help her navigate Washington. Her new cabinet includes negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who led recent tariff talks, and several former aides from the administration of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, figures who built a strong rapport with Trump.

“It’s a clear message to both domestic and international audiences that she’s trying to carry on Abe’s line of thinking, rather than Kishida’s or Ishiba’s,” said Rintaro Nishimura, a Tokyo-based senior associate at The Asia Group, a consulting firm.

Energy is also expected to surface. Japan still imports about 10% of its liquefied natural gas from Russia, a dependency Washington wants to curb. Tokyo has pledged to reduce the reliance, but says an abrupt cutoff could threaten its energy security.

Regional tensions

Takaichi’s handling of regional relations will also shape her success with Trump.

She’s long been known for her hardline views: criticizing China’s growing military presence in the region and adopting a conservative and nationalist tone on past issues with South Korea, where Japan’s history of colonialism and wartime sexual slavery still impacts relations to this day. Her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which its nearest neighbors see as an homage to Japan’s past wartime aggressions, have also angered both of those nations.

Yet since taking office, she’s hinted at a softer approach.

At her inaugural news conference as prime minister, she sought to alleviate worries of an anti-South Korea stance, lauding some of its most renowned exports.

“It seems there are various concerns, but I love Korean nori seaweed. I also use Korean cosmetics and watch Korean dramas,” she said. Maintaining positive ties with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung would continue the lattice-like foreign policy encouraged by Washington, one that favors multilateral cooperation among like-minded nations over bilateral dependence.

“There’s a growing understanding that Japan-South Korea cooperation is a necessity in this uncertain world,” Nishimura said. “If these two US allies deepen their defense ties, it helps reduce America’s burden in the region.”

Takaichi’s toughest balancing act may be China.

“Japan is walking a tightrope between the US and China,” said Misako Iwamoto, a Mie University emeritus professor, who specializes in politics and women’s studies.

China remains Japan’s largest trading partner. Past leaders, such as Yukio Hatoyama in 2009, leaned closer to Beijing, sparking pushback from Washington.

“But unlike Hatoyama, Takaichi is seen as firmly right-wing,” Iwamoto said. “If she manages to improve ties with China in a way that doesn’t appear anti-American, it might not cause too much friction.”

Both Trump and Takaichi take a hawkish stance on Beijing, particularly over Taiwan. Earlier this year, Takaichi visited the island and called for “cooperation with Taiwan to jointly address defense challenges.” Beijing condemned the trip as a “dangerous provocation,” warning that Japan was “at a crossroads” under her leadership.

Even before her election, tensions were rising between the two neighbors. Chinese vessels have stepped up activity around the disputed Senkaku Islands – known as the Diaoyus in China – while Japan’s 2022 defense paper officially labeled China its “greatest security threat” for the first time.

At her first press conference as prime minister, Takaichi vowed to take US-Japan relations to “new heights,” calling the alliance “the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign and security policy.” She ended her speech with a pointed line: “There is no time to stand still.”

She’s right. Takaichi is diving into a sea of challenges, from restoring trust at home to finding Japan’s balance between Washington and Beijing. How she steers through them will not only define her premiership but could subtly shape the tone and depth of the US-Japan partnership in the years ahead. (CNN)