The resignation of four ministers from the Federal Executive Council (FEC), and no fewer than four heads of agencies in President Bola Tinubu’s administration to pursue their 2027 political ambitions, has altered permutations for the governorship and National Assembly races in many states.

The affected states include Kano, Abia, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi and Adamawa, as feud looms between the presidency and some governors over potential ticket bearers in the All Progressives Congress (APC). With the decision of some cabinet members to run on the platform of opposition parties, the races promise to be keener in states such as Kano, as the aspirants face tough hurdles and dicey contests.

Those who quit their appointments between March 30 and 31, as directed by President Tinubu, include Minister of Labour and Productivity, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, who is eyeing a return to the National Assembly from Abia State; and Minister of Transportation, Sa’idu Alkali, who wants to contest the governorship election in Kano. Foreign Affairs Minister, Yusuf Tuggar, inked his resignation to pursue his Bauchi State governorship aspiration. The fourth minister who exited the cabinet over 2027 is Kebbi-born Yusuf Sununu, Minister of State for Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction. Sununu once represented Ngaski/Shanga/Yauri federal constituency of Kebbi in the House of Representatives. Appointees who quit their posts in parastatals include Abdulrazak Namdas, who resigned as board member of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), representing the North-East, to vie for Adamawa State governorship election. Ahmed Aminu resigned as executive secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) to pursue Adamawa State governorship on the platform of the APC.

Former Deputy Governor of Kano State, Nasiru Gawuna, resigned as chairman of the Governing Board of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) to contest the governorship election in Kano on the plank of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). In like manner, Rauf Okaniyan, also a former Deputy Governor in Oyo State, quit his chairmanship of the Governing Council of the Federal College of Education (Technical) to vie for Oyo governorship on the platform of the APC. The announcements of the aspirants to enter into the races in the affected states are likely to force incumbent APC governors to either change their preferred candidates or make compromises they did not envisage to ensure peace and party cohesion leading to next year’s poll.

Royal battle in Bauchi

In Bauchi, the resignation of Tuggar to contest the governorship of the state under the APC is likely to push some of the aspirants out of the race or force them to seek other parties to fulfil their ambition, should the former minister become the APC candidate. The state, according to findings, is replete with what many referred to as “APC heavyweights” who have been lining up to join the race even before Tuggar resigned last week from the federal cabinet. Besides Tuggar, other governorship aspirants include a former NNPC top official, Bala Wunti, who had already signified his interest under the ruling party and has even unleashed his posters, and Senator Umar Shehu Buba, who is known to have been financing the APC in the state and enjoying enormous grassroots support, even though he does not have active support from Abuja.

Apart from the aspirants under the APC platform, the 2023 governorship candidate of the APC, Air Marshal Sadiq Abubakar, has now moved over to ADC with a view to prosecuting his guber ambition. In the same vein, Senator Dauda Halim Jika is also plotting to advance his ambition through the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). What has further complicated the political situation in Bauchi, with the entry of Tuggar, is that the incumbent governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, is in dilemma as to who to support and in which party to do so in order to produce a successor. Findings showed that the governor is yet to decide which party to use to advance even his own senatorial ambition, having fallen out with the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, who now controls the levers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), through which he won election twice as Bauchi governor in 2015 and 2023. Sources said with the uncertainty over the party platform he would use to actualise his next political move, it would be difficult for the incumbent governor to decisively influence the governorship race in his state.

Having decided to quit PDP, Bala Mohammed is yet to land in ADC or APC after meeting with top leaders of both parties last week. He was expected to join the ADC last Thursday, but sources said the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s de-recognition of the Senator David Mark-led national exco and the Nafiu Gombe faction paused his move. Before APC leaders met with him in Bauchi, the governor said the ADC remained his preferred option. Regarding Tuggar, political observers in the state said it would be extremely difficult for the former minister to secure the ticket of the APC in Bauchi over claims that he is seen more as an outsider and more of an Abuja politician.

Findings also showed that Tuggar, who is from Bauchi North, may not be able to upstage any candidate produced by Bauchi South, which has been producing all the governors of the state since 1999 due to its large population. One of the sources in the state expressed concerns about Tuggar, saying the former minister may be popular in Abuja but does not enjoy grassroots support in Bauchi and the APC because he did not support the process through which the new state exco recently emerged. Given the way the party controls everything, they may just gang up and decide through consensus who their governorship candidate will be, and he might not be able to challenge them. Apparently, he was absent when the new APC state exco was inaugurated last week, which does not seem to work in his favour. On the other hand, the source hinted that Senator Umar Shehu Buba, who comes from Bauchi South, does not seem to enjoy the support of the Presidency but is blessed with enormous grassroots support capable of catapulting him to Government House if all goes well.

Can Alkali arm-twist Yahaya in Gombe?

In Gombe State, the entry of former Minister of Transportation, Sa’idu Ahmed Alkali, into the 2027 governorship election is likely to arm-twist Governor Inuwa Yahaya and push him to abandon his anointed candidates in order not to offend Abuja, where Alkali is said to represent. Although the governor has not publicly declared support for anyone so far, findings showed that he was plotting to pick one of his trusted loyalists—the state Accountant-General, Aminu Umar Yuguda; Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development, Muhammad Magaji; and a business mogul, Yunusa Yakubu—to carry the mantle of leadership from him next year. It is not clear whether Alkali is being supported by the Presidency to join the Gombe guber race and whether the state governor would key into that or defy Abuja on the choice.

Rumble in Kano

In Kano, the resignation of former deputy governor Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna from the Federal Mortgage Bank and the APC to contest the governorship poll on the platform of the ADC has posed a direct challenge to the incumbent governor, Abba Yusuf, who recently defected from the NNPP to APC and triggered disaffection between him and his godfather, Musa Kwankwaso, and his Kwankwasiyya movement. Although Governor Yusuf now controls Kano and can dispense funds and patronage, the political landscape is still largely being controlled by Kwankwaso, and this may influence the way voters approach the 2027 polls in Kano unless Yusuf is able to woo the people to himself before then. Gawuna is a Kwankwaso loyalist. However, the existential threat the ADC is facing over ongoing litigation and non-recognition of its leaders by INEC may hurt the chances of Gawuna if he insists on running on the ADC platform and the courts sack the Mark-led leadership.

In Abia, the political temperature in the Isuikwuato–Umunneochi federal constituency is rising following the resignation of Onyejeocha, who is aspiring to return to the House of Representatives in 2027. Her move, though widely anticipated, signals a high-stakes comeback bid after her 2023 defeat by Amobi Ogah of the Labour Party (LP). Onyejeocha, a four-term lawmaker and former Deputy Whip of the House of Representatives, had briefly exited legislative politics following the loss. She was later consoled with a ministerial appointment by President Tinubu after a protracted legal tussle with Ogah at the tribunal. In compliance with presidential directives requiring political appointees to resign ahead of elections, Onyejeocha returned to familiar turf—armed with experience, influence and unrelenting ambition.

Strengths, experience, structure

Onyejeocha’s camp is banking on her deep political roots, 16 years of legislative experience and extensive national network. With a strong base in Umunneochi and a track record of empowerment programmes, scholarships and medical outreach initiatives, her loyalists insist she remains a formidable grassroots force. She has some key federal projects in the constituency, including tertiary institutions and erosion control interventions, to her credit. Many constituents see her as an achiever, dogged fighter and potential material for speakership or deputy speakership position. Onyejeocha towers as one of the most influential Igbo female politicians with capacity to get whatever she wants. Her instrumentality in securing employment opportunities for a number of her constituents will count for her at the polls. As an influential member of the ruling APC, the ex-minister will likely leverage “federal might” to drive her ambition. While she belongs to the ruling party at the centre, in Abia State, Onyejeocha is in the opposition camp. Her appeal among female voters, plus her unfading popularity among constituents, may count in her favour. She also maintains warm relationships with traditional rulers.

Hurdles: Incumbency and changing sentiments

Despite her strengths, it is not going to be a smooth ride. The incumbent lawmaker, Amobi Ogah, has built a reputation as the “Master of Empowerment,” consolidating grassroots support through expansive programmes and visible constituency projects. His role in restoring security in the constituency further strengthened his political capital. For many constituents, Ogah represents continuity, performance and a new political order, making any attempt to unseat him daunting. Beyond incumbency, Onyejeocha faces a perception battle, as critics argue her 16 uninterrupted years in the National Assembly offered ample opportunity for impact. Calls for equity have also surfaced, with some insisting that power rotation within the constituency should be respected.

Political undercurrents

Adding complexity is the anticipated involvement of Uche Ogah, a former minister and APC stalwart, who is expected to support the incumbent, potentially turning the race into a proxy political showdown. The Labour Party, buoyed by its growing influence in Abia under Governor Alex Otti, is unlikely to concede ground easily. Another factor is the perception among some critics that Onyejeocha does not relate well with people, a trait they argue she must address. Pundits see the Isuikwuato–Umunneochi race as a battle of titans, shaping into a fierce contest between experience and incumbency, legacy and momentum.

Namdas, Aminu contend with Fintiri in Adamawa

In Adamawa, Namdas and Aminu must secure the backing of outgoing Governor Umaru Fintiri, who recently joined the APC and was proclaimed leader of the party in the state. The key question remains whether the presidency and APC hierarchy will allow Fintiri to produce his successor. If that happens, sources say both aspirants may be edged out, as they are not among those currently favoured. (Vanguard)