Nigeria’s crude oil revenues are poised for a windfall as spiralling tensions between Washington and Tehran push Brent toward $80 a barrel, a price level that would supercharge Africa’s top exporter just as it prepares to flood markets with a fresh grade of sweet, light crude.

Brent crude, the benchmark of Nigeria’s crude, surged to a seven-month high near $73 a barrel on Saturday after the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, and analysts say prices could reach $80 per barrel if supply disruptions occur.

The attacks have brought the Strait of Hormuz into the conflict zone, creating concerns about potential disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East. Over 20 per cent of the world’s crude passes through this waterway.

BusinessDay’s findings showed traders are already factoring in a “war premium” at the Monday open market due to the current geopolitical situation.

Further findings showed global energy markets are set to see significant volatility following a United States-Israel coordinated wave of military strikes across Iran early Saturday morning.

The attack, which targeted multiple cities including the capital of Tehran, marks a huge escalation in a regional conflict that has simmered for months.

Explosions were reported in Isfahan, Qom, and Karaj, with witnesses in Tehran reporting thick smoke rising from districts housing government buildings.

This is the second time the U.S. has struck Iranian soil in less than a year. In June 2025, American warplanes bombed three nuclear sites, including the Fordo enrichment facility. While that conflict ended in a brief ceasefire, the current operation appears far more extensive.

Israel has closed its airspace and suspended all civilian flights. The Home Front Command has ordered the public to cease non-essential activities, prohibiting gatherings and closing schools. In Iran, the strikes occurred on a Saturday morning, the start of the work week, leading to reports of chaos as millions were already in offices and classrooms.

Implications for Nigeria’s oil market

For Abuja, the timing of the US/Iran conflict is significant.

Nigeria’s state oil firm NNPC is weeks away from launching exports of Cawthorne, a new light, sweet crude grade comparable in quality to the country’s flagship Bonny Light.

First loadings are scheduled for March 24 to 25 aboard a floating storage and offloading vessel of the same name, which holds up to 2.2 million barrels and services Oil Mining Lease 18 and surrounding assets in the Eastern Niger Delta.

Analysts at energy intelligence firm Kpler estimate the new stream could lift Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output from roughly 1.65 million barrels per day to approximately 1.7 million bpd through year-end.

“The geopolitical environment is doing the heavy lifting for Nigeria’s treasury right now,” said a Lagos-based oil markets analyst who requested anonymity ahead of a client briefing. “Cawthorne arriving in this market, with Brent flirting with $80, could not be better scripted.”

Nigeria sits in an unusual position in this landscape. Unlike Middle Eastern producers whose output risks disruption in a conflict scenario, West African crude trades on different shipping lanes and is structurally insulated from Hormuz risk, a quality European and Asian refiners are quietly pricing in as they diversify away from Gulf barrels.

Bonny Light and its peers already command a premium in European markets; Cawthorne, with an API gravity of 36.4 and similarly high yields of gasoline and diesel, is expected to compete directly for those cargoes.

Nigeria pumped 1.48 million bpd in January, according to OPEC’s secondary source data, just shy of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC+ quota, and a marked improvement over the 1.5 million bpd average the country managed through much of 2025.

Abuja is among the OPEC+ members lobbying for a higher production ceiling within the alliance, a request that gains leverage as global demand for non-Gulf barrels rises. (Business Day)