The wave of defections by governors and lawmakers from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has generated mixed reactions across states, with stakeholders sharply divided on whether Nigeria is drifting toward a one-party state.

As of May 29, 2023, when governors elected in the general elections were sworn in, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) controlled 11 states, reinforcing its position as the country’s main opposition party at the time.

However, a series of defections to the APC has significantly weakened that structure.

With the latest exits, the PDP is now left with only four serving governors, namely Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Dauda Lawal (Zamfara).

Sunday Vanguard reliably gathered that as things stands, one of the governors may defect to any viable part before the general elections.

“One of the remaining governors would soon dump the party for a viable platform. He needs a new platform to survive, ” a source said.

The sharp decline from 11 to four governors has intensified concerns among political observers about the shrinking strength of the opposition and the broader implications for Nigeria’s multiparty democracy, as debates continue over whether the country is edging toward dominant-party rule.

Tinubu

Speaking on the matter, National Secretary of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Ogun State, Comrade Oginni Sunday, said:

“It is highly unfortunate that the politics of ideologies is no longer in vogue, due to recklessness and wanton corruption of today’s political leaders.

“I can say it louder and unequivocally that the ruling party, the APC and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu cannot be blamed for the unprecedented defections and cross carpeting going on at the state level and the National Assembly.

Democracy is a game of choice and the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria gives room for defection when there are factions in a political party.

“The question now is: Who gave the opposition parties the leeway for defection? Who are the architects of the infighting within the opposition political parties?”

Crises

Citing internal crises within NNPP, he said:

“For instance, the internal conflicts that led to leadership tussles in NNPP were caused by the greed of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who joined the party almost three years ago and because he was given the opportunity to freely run on the platform of the party as our presidential candidate, later attempted to hijack the party by changing the logo and colours of the party to Kwankwaso’s school logo and Kwankwasias colours.

“It is wrong for anyone to suggest that APC or the President is responsible for the defection of Governor Abba Yusuf, the only state governor NNPP paraded in Nigeria.

It is on record that Kwankwaso and his expelled group challenged a competent and legal convention that produced Dr. Agbo Gilbert as the National Chairman and Comrade Oginni Sunday as the National Secretary at the Federal Capital Territory High Court, Abuja, and failed.

It Is clear that the problems of opposition political parties are self-inflicted due to selfishness and corruption, coupled with poor funding.

“However, I am using this medium to commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his leadership style that is making core opposition leaders support him for the coming election. Definitely, there is something good the governors and elected officers from opposition parties are seeing in the leadership of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu that is making them join the APC.

In NNPP, Labour Party and PDP, the falcons can no longer hear the falconers. The unending strifes and squabbles within the ranks and files of the aforementioned political parties may not be resolved until after the 2027 general elections.

“Consequently, the leadership of NNPP under the watch of the founder, Dr. Boniface Aniebonam, who doubles as the Chairman, Board of Trustees, is looking forward beyond 2027. We are already strategizing for the takeover of leadership of Nigeria from APC in 2031.”

On his part, a former Local Government Chairman in Ogun State, Otunba Tayo Onayemi, said:“It’s no longer news that there’s contagious defection from other parties to APC, induced or intentional.

The spate of defection In recent times can be said to be of good omen from the side of the political gainers while the losers will always cry foul.

On the side of our nascent democracy, it smacks of real majority being massed up for the purposes of smooth and effective governance.

“As to whether our democracy will be endangered, it must be placed at the doorsteps of the decamperes and their followers. The questions to ask them should be: Is the decamping in their interest or in the interest of democracy? Whether their parties stand to gain from the decampment?

Finally, who defends democracy? Who holds the pillars? Yet democracy must survive.”

Diminished

Giving his perspective, Ekiti-based public affairs analyst, Lanre Ogunsuyi, said:“Nigeria appears to be drifting steadily toward the precipice of a one-party state, as a relentless tide of defections sweeps members of the PDP into the waiting embrace of the APC.

With each departure, the once-formidable opposition is further diminished, its ranks thinned, its voice weakened, and its capacity to challenge power gravely impaired.

“This unfolding realignment has ignited profound anxieties about the vitality of Nigeria’s democratic experiment.

History offers sobering lessons: where political plurality withers, debate suffocates, choices for the electorate narrow, and power calcifies in the hands of the few.

“The dominance of a single party, unchecked and unchallenged, risks eroding institutional safeguards and nurturing the seeds of authoritarian rule.

“Yet defenders of the current moment contend that these defections are less a conspiracy than a consequence born of opposition parties riven by factionalism, paralysed by internal discord, and unable to present a coherent alternative.”

Pluralism

In Oyo State, a chieftain of African Democratic Congress, ADC, Niyi Aborisade said:“This development should deeply worry every Nigerian who truly values democracy and good governance. A democratic system flourishes on healthy competition, strong institutions and a vibrant opposition that can hold those in power to account.

“When elected leaders defect en masse to the ruling party, it weakens pluralism and gradually erodes the very foundations of our democracy.

Nigeria cannot afford a drift towards a one-party dominance where dissenting voices are silenced and accountability is diminished.

Our country deserves a future where power truly belongs to the people, where opposition is respected, and where governance is driven by ideas, competence and genuine commitment to national progress.”

Terrible

Also speaking, Chairman, Coalition of Registered Political Parties (CRPP),Dr. Samson Isibor said:

“It is not good at all. It is a terrible thing that we don’t want in this country. We don’t want to be like those under one party and one man.

It is not good for the practice of democracy. Opposition is very vital in a democracy.

It is the ruling party that is doing this. They said they don’t want opposition, yet they are not performing.”

However, the Convener Concerned Edo Citizens Forum, CECF, Comrade Roy Orhibabor stated:

“Nigeria is not going to a one-party state. What is happening is that our democracy is evolving.

Our political parties don’t have ideology. Our people see political parties as a vehicle to take them from one place to another.

One-party state is not sustainable. They will still move back.

Our people see political parties as a vehicle to take them from one place to another, once they get there, what matters to them is what they can make for themselves.

“PDP said it will be in government for 60 years but they could not sustain it.

Look at Delta State, they had a man who had been sponsoring and funding the APC, all of a sudden, somebody moved in and that man is now in charge. If you cannot satisfy the interest of those persons, what are they going to do?”

Threat

National Leader of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi, described the recent mass defections of governors and lawmakers as a serious threat to Nigeria’s democracy.

He said the trend goes beyond normal political realignment, warning that it represents “a dangerous assault” on the nation’s democratic foundations.

“The mass defection of PDP governors and lawmakers to the APC is not normal politics, it is a dangerous assault on Nigeria’s democracy. What we are witnessing is not ideology or conviction, but raw political opportunism driven by fear, self-interest, and the desperate scramble for power,” he stated.

According to him, elected officials who abandon the platforms on which they were voted into office betray the people’s mandate and weaken representative governance.

“This reckless drift toward a one-party state destroys opposition, kills accountability, and opens the door to impunity and authoritarianism. Democracy without competition is simply disguised dictatorship,” Charanchi added.

Weak

Offering a contrasting perspective, elder statesman and former Secretary-General of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, said defections are not a new phenomenon in Nigeria’s political landscape.

He noted that party switching is common in environments where political ideology is weak, and politicians often gravitate toward parties with higher chances of winning elections rather than those with stronger performance records.

“We need to note that our democracy is of the third world, which is not a matter of choice but of capacity. Though democracy without viable opposition is a sham, defections by governors do not necessarily mean a one-party state, especially if voters make judicious use of their democratic rights and ensure their votes count,” Sani said. (Sunday Vanguard)