Until Wednesday, December 31, 2025, when the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi and his supporters officially joined the African Democratic Congress, ADC, not many Nigerians believed such could be possible.

The reasons for the doubt were legion. The most potent of them all was the presence of Atiku Abubakar, whose presidential ambition for 2027 is no secret.

Atiku and Obi parted ways politically before the 2023 general election, when the former Anambra State governor vehemently refused to run with him as vice president. Obi had thought that the PDP would zone the ticket to the south, particularly, South East. But when that was not possible, he dumped the party.

Obi moved into the Labour Party, an unknown political association that was just existing by name. He contested on the platform which drew large following, particularly from the youth population. The Obidients as they were to be known in the course of time, brought life into the party.

In the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, the emergence of Atiku as the presidential flagbearer against the insistence of many party chieftains, particularly, Nyesom Wike, who was a long-standing financier of the party, sowed acrimonious seed in the party.

Although the Adamawa-born Atiku went ahead to come second at the presidential election, the party has never been the same ever since. It has continued to oscillate from one crisis to another, culminating in the formal exit in November of Atiku and other prominent figures into the ADC.

Early last year, a number of political bigwigs from the opposition parties had participated in the launch of the ADC in what they termed a mega merger they envisaged would be the Third Force.

Obi continued to attend the meetings under the platform even though too many questions were being asked about his moves and motives.

But for close observers, it was evident that he was not going to continue with the LP for too long, particularly as the country is now inching closer to the next election.

The LP has been beset by prolonged leadership crisis which has significantly weakened the party leaving it divided and ill-prepared to mount a serious challenge in the 2027 election at both national and sub-national levels.

The crisis, which showed up after the party’s strong performance in the 2023 general election, stemmed from leadership disputes involving Lamidi Apapa and Julius Abure, both of whom laid claim to the party’s national structure.

The Impasse led to factionalisation and triggered mass defections, largely to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Despite interventions by prominent figures, the crisis remained unresolved, with Abure refusing to step aside despite court rulings declaring the expiration of his tenure as national chairman.

Some LP members and political observers have accused elements within the party leadership of colluding with external political interests to weaken the LP and frustrate Obi’s possible emergence as a presidential candidate in 2027.

As it is the case with the PDP, the LP is also not getting better, leading to the conclusion by close observers that the two political parties are not healthy enough and may not also recover from their self-inflicted malaise until 2027 election has come and gone.

The defection of Obi to the ADC may have ended months of speculations and may have also given an indication that a robust opposition is afoot ahead of the election.

Some political observers who have reacted to the Peter Obi moves expressed the optimism that the politicians in the ADC may have decided to rein in their ambitions and self-interest in the overall interest of their compatriots.

Activist Aisha Yesufu, a long-standing supporter of Obi, who also followed him to become a card-carrying member of ADC, said in a viral video online, that she would work against any political ticket that features Peter Obi as a running mate.

“If Peter Obi becomes anyone’s running mate, I will oppose that ticket in my own capacity,” she said.

Aisha was apparently reacting to jeers from the opposition that Obi was desperate and would likely run with Atiku as vice presidential candidate.

The game plan

One important issue about Obi joining the ADC was about what would be his stake in the party where the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, some of whom had trumpeted presidential ambition in 2027, had already taken comfortable seats before his formal arrival.

But Obi has told whoever that cares to listen that his name would be on the ballot in 2027. The other day, while reacting to rumours of him running for vice president in 2027, he said: “I am not travelling round the world to learn governance to be vice president.”

Some political watchers have also said that before Obi could accept to join the ADC, there must have been an agreement by the arrowheads in the new alliance that he should be allowed to fly the party’s flag in 2027 on the strength of his earlier promise to do just one term.

The agreement may have also included to field Atiku Abubakar in 2031 when power is expected to return to the northern part of the country.

Some political pundits are already saying that Obi could run with Aminu Tambuwal as vice presidential candidate of the party.

“If El-Rufai can convince the Moslem North or if he can galvanise the opinion moulders of the Moslem North to rally round Peter Obi, Tinubu’s government will end,” Mojeed Dahiru, public affairs analyst, said. (BusinessDay)