The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is emerging as an unlikely beneficiary of the escalating feud between Nyesom Wike, former Rivers State governor and now minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and Seyi Makinde, governor of Oyo State.

The two men have drifted apart in a battle that is weakening the leading opposition party and shifting Nigeria’s political balance of power ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In 2022, Wike and Makinde stood shoulder to shoulder with three other PDP governors – Samuel Ortom (Benue), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) – to demand the resignation of Iyorcha Ayu, then PDP national chairman.

Their argument was simple: it was unfair for both the presidential candidate and the party chairmanship to remain in the North.

The G5 rebellion dominated headlines, with Wike as its loudest voice, hosting meetings in Port Harcourt and launching open attacks on party leaders who resisted their cause.

Makinde, though less fiery, provided legitimacy, being the only G5 governor seeking reelection.

Their solidarity created the image of governors united in principle, but that bond was short-lived.

Wike’s anger over losing both the PDP presidential and vice-presidential tickets in 2023 pushed him towards Bola Tinubu of the APC.

His support for Tinubu was pivotal in Rivers, where the APC made significant inroads, and in return, Wike was rewarded with the plum FCT ministerial portfolio.

Makinde, on the other hand, retained his PDP base in Oyo and was re-elected, but his alliance with Wike began to crack once Wike openly declared support for Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.

For Makinde, who harbours his own presidential ambitions, Wike’s pledge was nothing short of betrayal.

The feud has since spiralled. Wike has accused Makinde of deepening PDP’s crises, pulling out of reconciliation moves and reneging on their gentleman’s agreements.

Makinde, meanwhile, has tightened his grip on the PDP in the South-West.

The party’s recent decision to hold its national convention in Ibadan was widely interpreted as a victory for Makinde over Wike.

Tensions between their camps have played out in the tussle for party offices. Wike’s bloc backed Samuel Anyanwu, former Imo governorship candidate, for national secretary, while Makinde’s camp resisted.

Reconciliation efforts have collapsed, leaving the PDP fractured.

This week, the PDP’s National Executive Committee zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to the South-West, a move that boosts Makinde’s profile but further alienates Wike’s supporters.

For the APC, PDP’s internal strife could not be better timed.

APC’s gain

The ruling party has been quietly reaping defections from across states, with disillusioned PDP members streaming into its fold. Lawmakers, governors, and grassroots politicians frustrated by the endless feuds are swelling the APC’s ranks, giving the party added numerical strength in the National Assembly and state structures.

Recent defections in Kebbi, Delta, and the South-South have tilted the balance further in APC’s favour.

The ruling party’s strong showing in recent bye-elections has also been attributed, in part, to the PDP’s divisions.

Mistrust, permutations

Yet, APC’s gains carry risks. Wike’s increasing closeness to the APC has unsettled some loyalists, who see him as an opportunist with one leg in PDP and another in APC.

On the other hand, a Makinde presidential bid under PDP could erode APC’s dominance in the South-West if he consolidates support.

Speaking to BusinessDay, Ajibola Basiru, APC national secretary, dismissed the PDP as a dying party. “The PDP has collapsed into disarray and has been rejected by Nigerians.

“The APC’s clear victory in the recent by-elections shows that President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda is gaining strong support from Nigerians, and it reaffirms the people’s trust in our party.

“Our decisive wins in opposition-controlled states like Zamfara, Adamawa, and Kano prove that Nigerians voted massively for APC candidates, despite the thuggery and violence sponsored by some state governments against our candidates and supporters.”

On whether Makinde could still pose a threat against the APC in the South West ahead of 2027, Basiru kept the door open.

He said, “Who told you that it’s not a possibility that even Seyi Makinde himself won’t join the APC before 2027? From the reality on the ground, he seems very grounded in PDP.

“Politics is dynamic. Politics develops on a day-by-day basis, so we do not know whether Makinde will even be one of the major campaign supporters of Asiwaju. So, don’t ever say ‘no’ until you see it.

“As far as I am concerned, as a party, we keep our fingers crossed as things develop. We are working to mobilise and strengthen Nigeria to continue to see our party as the party of first choice.”

Feud downplayed

But the PDP pushed back as Debo Ologunagba, its national publicity secretary, downplayed the feud.

Ologunagba said, “There is no rift; this is about democracy. Right now, we are focused on planning our convention.

“Governor Seyi said what he said, that he won’t go to the gutters with anyone. That’s all about that, we have moved on.

“The party is not about just two individuals. It’s about democracy. When you see what happened yesterday, you would realise that we have gone past that stage.

“We are working on positioning the party to win.”

He added that the PDP was ready to receive back defected members. “Our members left due to the fear that there was no structure for them to remain in the party, but now that things are being straightened out and worked on, we are open to receiving back members so that we can all work together to build the party.”

Beyond the back-and-forth between APC and PDP, independent political analysts warn that the Wike–Makinde feud carries deeper implications for Nigeria’s democratic health.

Oladele Ogunwale, a public affairs analyst, said, “What we are seeing is not necessarily the strength of the APC but the weakness of the PDP.

“Wike and Makinde represent the two most influential blocs in the PDP today, and if they cannot find a common ground, the opposition will remain too fragmented to provide any real check on the ruling party.”

“For the APC, they are just playing a waiting game,” he said.

Ogunwale added, “The APC is cleverly playing the waiting game, harvesting the PDP’s internal crisis without much effort. But this does not mean Nigerians are entirely satisfied with governance. What it shows is that without a united opposition, voters have little or no viable alternative.”

Similarly, David Onwordi, another political analyst, said: “The absence of a coherent opposition is bad for Nigeria’s democracy. The APC’s dominance today owes more to defections and the PDP’s implosion than to superior policy offerings. In the long run, this weakens accountability because power is not truly contested.”

“Wike’s open romance with the APC is a double-edged sword. It helps the ruling party undermine the PDP, but it also creates suspicion within APC ranks. If the APC leans too heavily on Wike while alienating its loyal old guard, it could become a problem closer to 2027.”

Onwordi added, “Makinde’s rising influence in the South-West is not something the APC can dismiss.

“If he secures the PDP ticket in 2027, he could disrupt Tinubu’s base. So while APC is gaining in the short term, the real test will be whether it can hold its dominance in the South-West if Makinde emerges as a formidable candidate.” (BusinessDay)