Johnson Babajide, in this piece, examines factors that may determine the next governor of Benue State and asks if the alliance between former governor Samuel Ortom and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume will be able to upstage the incumbent governor, Hyaccinth Alia in the forthcoming governorship election.

AS the hands of clock tick to the February, 2027 governorship election, the political environment in Benue State looks unpredictable but the politicians are keeping the cards to their chests.

Though, the incumbent governor, Hyacinth Alia, is facing a lot of opposition ahead of his re-election in 2027, which is a norm in democratic rules because opposition serves as a crucial check on executive power, preventing authoritarianism, and providing citizens with alternative governance choices.

But the internal crisis afflicting the ruling APC in Benue State seems to be making the chances slimmer for the incumbent governor. The internal skirmishes are self-imposed and could wreck the ship if not well managed.

Factors that may shape 2027 governorship election

If performance is the only key the public will use to gauge the re-election of a governor in Benue State, then, governor Alia has no cause to fear in returning to the Government House, Makurdi, in the forthcoming governorship election.

The Alia administration has demonstrated exceptional commitment to delivering the dividends of democracy across the length and breadth of the state with unprecedented infrastructural development, including the construction and rehabilitation of roads, improvement of public facilities, expansion of educational infrastructure, revitalisation of healthcare institutions, and implementation of reforms aimed at restoring efficiency and productivity within the public service.

But political actors in the state believe that the governor’s first term in office has been characterised by alleged impunity, reliance on personal understanding, politics of bitterness and disrespect to party elders and stakeholders, all these were allegedly the attributes of the Catholic priest-turned-politician who has been in the saddle in the past three years.

According to one of the old-breed politicians in the state, Pa Emma, the over three years in office of the incumbent governor have shown that Alia doesn’t have knowledge of governance.

“He runs government as if he is still on the pulpit dishing out directive and expecting people to say ‘Yes father’. Even in USA, a developed democracy, you see how the Democrats criticise some of the policies of Donald Trump, so also some members of his party, the Republican, often criticise his perceived anti-people policies.

“Opposition is a crucial check on executive power, preventing authoritarianism, but in the case of Benue governor, he has turned everything to his personal aggrandisement.

“That’s the major problem that has been ravaging the party in the state, he believes he is all in all, hardly listens to any advice and the moment he discovers that you don’t go with his own stuff, he distances himself from you.

“Go and ask his aides, he doesn’t listen to anyone of them, they are all there like zombies, he is the alpha and omega of everything.”

Pa Emma argued that there is every possibility that the alliance of the former governor, Samuel Ortom and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, may succeed in upstaging Alia in the forthcoming general elections.

“If you have been listening to the opposition party, particularly, the immediate past governor of the state, Samuel Ortom, he has been emphasising one issue which he coined as ‘strategic partnership’.”

According to Emma, the partnership means that members of the PDP and the aggrieved members of APC, those loyal to SGF may likely go into partnership to unseat the incumbent governor in the forthcoming governorship election, although, that is if Akume succumbs to pressure from his loyalists.

The old politician made reference to the manner the SGF loyalists were shut out of the 2027 race having lost the party primary election due to what he described as ‘electoral fraud’, adding that if the national secretariat of the ruling party does not act on the petitions before it, the ruling party is gradually sliding into more crisis.

But a political analyst in the state, Dan Neji dismissed the so-called ‘strategic partnership’ with the wave of the hand, arguing that the partnership had already been punctured. According to him, such partnership could only work where there is unity of purpose among the opposition parties.

Neji noted that most of the strong opposition members have scattered and pitched tents with other political parties because of their selfish ambition.

“Yes, the so-called ‘strategic partnership’ would have sent fear to the ruling party, most essentially, the incumbent governor, Hyacinth Alia. But with the manner the opposition members have scattered and pitched tents with other political parties in the state, the road to the government house seat has been made easy for the incumbent governor.

For instance, as of now, no fewer than six of the opponents had picked up governorship tickets of various parties for the forthcoming governorship election.

For instance, Herman Hembe is now governorship candidate of African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Labour Party (LP) has Mathias Byuan as its governorship candidate, while the Peoples Democratic Party which ought to be the alternative party is grappling with internal crisis.

At present, the party has two governorship candidates in the state, the Wike-led faction has produced the former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Justice under Yar Adua administration, Michael Aondoakaa SAN, and the Turaki-led camp has Emmanuel Agbo as it’s governorship candidate.

Others included the Social Democratic Party (SDP) with Sebastine Hon, SAN as the governorship candidate, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) which has Professor Terhemba Shija as it’s gubernatorial candidate.

In the same vein, politicians in Benue State strongly believe and have respect for zoning arrangements, this singular factor has helped every incumbent governor to survive opposition during re-election years.

From George Akume to Gabriel Suswam and Samuel Ortom, all benefited from the zoning arrangements and the possibility of not working in favour of the incumbent is very slim and inappropriate going by the opinions of political class across the state.

How does this work? A political analyst, Amos Saasondo said that, Benue State has had six executive governors since it’s creation 50 years ago and the political power has been rotating between the Benue North West and Benue North East senatorial districts.

“Let me start from the present political dispensation, it is the general belief that the power must rotate between these two senatorial districts, don’t ask me of the Benue South senatorial district (the Idomas).

“The belief generally is that no matter the weaknesses and failures of incumbent governor, we are bound to stand by him till he finishes his two terms so we can have seamless transfer of power to another senatorial district.

“So, changing the post in the middle of the match amounts to denying the senatorial district that is next in line the opportunity of having their turn at the expiration of eight years.

“For instance, the incumbent governor is from Benue North East whose first term is about to end, and the expectation is that in the next four or five years, the Benue North West will have it’s turn and the circle continues.

“But in the event of removing the incumbent and giving the mandate to another candidate from the same Benue North East senatorial district (nearly all the governorship candidates are from Benue North East) the possibility of the new governor insisting on having two terms is very high and this will deny the Benue North West senatorial district of having their slot in 2031,” he said.

But for Friday Adaji, a political observer in the state, argued that seven months to the governorship election is still a far distance and added that some factors may likely spring up that will determine the voting pattern come 2027 and submitted by quoting from the American idioms, saying, ‘It is not over until the fat lady sings.’ (TRIBUNE)