By LUCKY O.O. UKUEKU

When the political rift in Rivers State began, many voices weighed in. I had earlier cautioned that it would be difficult to finish what was started. At the time, former Niger Delta agitator Asari Dokubo was quoted as saying, “Them dey your back.” Similarly, former Ekiti Governor Ayo Fayose and former IYC National President, Udengs Eradiri, reportedly advised against confronting the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, stating that he is a formidable political figure. Today, the unfolding events appear to validate those early warnings.

In politics, loyalty is often strategic. The cases of Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri and former Governor Seriake Dickson demonstrate how patience and alignment can secure a second term. Going against a powerful political structure without adequate preparation often comes with heavy consequences.

One must ask: where are the elders who once gave assurances? This scenario mirrors past political miscalculations, including the reported friction between former President Goodluck Jonathan and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a conflict many believe was influenced by poor advice. In the Niger Delta, tribal sentiment sometimes overshadows strategic thinking, and key benefactors are quickly forgotten. This is a critical lesson for young political actors, particularly we of Ijaw extraction.

High Chief Dr. Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, during his birthday last year, allegedly described Wike as his friend. He reportedly stated that nobody stood by Wike when he faced criticism for supporting the emergence of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, including leaders from the Ijaw nation. Tompolo was quoted as saying the dispute between Wike and Fubara should have been resolved “like father and son.” Such statements reflect a preference for dialogue over confrontation.

Asari Dokubo, who had previously dismissed Wike’s influence, later received a visit from the FCT Minister, an event that surprised many political observers. The current political dispensation shows that resilience and independent capacity to fight one’s battles are crucial in Nigerian politics.

Political permutations ahead of 2027 are already generating commentary. There are speculations that former Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa may face challenges in his senatorial ambition. Similarly, political watchers allege that Governors Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State could also experience pushback at the appropriate time. In Imo State, the Governor is allegedly facing backlash from colleagues for his perceived support for Governor Fubara, with reports that several governors are moving to replace him as Chairman of the Governors’ Forum.

The FCT Minister is known for his often-quoted remark: “The day you start fighting me, I will give you a fight you will regret.” Notably, President Bola Tinubu has not publicly criticized Wike despite his unique cross-party influence. The APC National Chairman is said to hold him in high regard, and the Senate President is widely regarded as his ally.

Governor Fubara may have miscalculated politically, but one can only wish him well in his future endeavors.

As things stand, loyalists of the FCT Minister have reportedly secured major APC tickets for the House of Assembly, House of Representatives, and Senate in Rivers State. The Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, widely regarded as a loyalist of Wike, has reportedly secured the party’s ticket for the House of Representatives. There are also widespread claims that after the tenure of the incoming governor, a close associate of Wike who recently stepped down from the Reps race could emerge as the next governor of the state. For now, Wike’s political structure appears firmly in control of Rivers State.

The Rivers crisis reinforces a timeless truth: politics is not for the weak. It rewards strategy, strength, and timing.

•Comr. Lucky O.O. Ukueku is National President of the Niger Delta Youth for Good Governance (NDYFGG).