Last September, I travelled far into the hinterland of Benue State from Abuja by road for the burial of Chief Audu Ogbeh. It was a journey which took us over ten hours of barely passable roads through several settlements and domains – Tiv, Idoma and yes, Igbo. Although we went in a fortified convoy like most people do these days when travelling by road, my heart still skipped a beat each time we passed through areas which had been made notorious by kidnaps and attacks. And when we passed through Yelwata, the area which had been made infamous for the massacre that took place there, my heart literally stood still. I was on high alert as I looked out for furtive and suspicious movements. I found none. In fact, it looked like any rural town but for military checkpoints. For some strange reasons, the convoy stopped shortly after we passed Yelwata and my fears came back. But they melted as roasted corn and refreshments were purchased and as people stretched their legs and eased themselves without any incident. It was reasonably late when we got to Otukpo, the heartland of Idoma, where most of the people in the convoy chose to spend the night. The rest of us still had about ninety minutes of travel. It was ninety minutes of eerie darkness, whispering trees and more checkpoints for a now smaller and less protected convoy. But we made it. My sigh of relief as we entered our destination was loud. Even while at the village, we were admonished not to take long walks during the day as we could stand out.

My experience is that of almost anybody who has to travel by road these days. Although it is particularly rough and lethal in parts of the north and the east, it is an experience which cuts across the country – I once had palpitations when I saw some Fulani herders and their cattle seemingly blocking the road at Ikire in Osun State around dusk some five years ago. It wasn’t always like this. In fact, road travel used to be beautiful and scenic. Village experience used to be relaxing and invigorating. We all used to look forward to visiting our friends’ villages to celebrate events with them. Not anymore. And we all know what has happened. Bandits, terrorists and kidnappers happened. I do not believe the incursions of bandits and religious extremists – we couldn’t even name them terrorists for a while – from the Sahel region were random and inevitable and a result of the chaos in that region. I believe they were initially enabled for political reasons by some leaders. I also don’t believe that the introduction of Sharia about the same time, in the same part of the country, was just coincidental. It was, in my opinion, part of a plan to upset the second term ambition of a southern, Christian President. Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences has set in as what started as a political game has now become an existential threat. Not only to the north, but to the country. The unity of the north, fragile at best since this new democratic dispensation, is now almost beyond salvage. It is now difficult for the Christian north to feel completely safe again among their Muslim brethren. What Political Sharia and religious intolerance over the years, have not taken, incessant attacks on their homes and farms have seized.

There is the economic dimension as well as there might be a method to the madness, the seeming chaos. People need to be dispossessed of their land for mining to take place. Guns are needed to enable that. Guns have to be paid for, often from the proceeds of the land. And so the vicious circle of violence and exploitation, once initiated, continues. All of these are not helped by the rhetoric from clerics on Fridays and the body language of the largely Muslim leaders to the plight of the disadvantaged. They all serve to make the poor, especially Christian poor in the north feel endangered. These are probably the signs President Trump might have read – many see it as his excuse – to wade into Nigeria’s murky religious waters. History however tells us that America will not extend itself if there is nothing to gain. So whatever President Trump’s real reason – economic, political, ideological – for calling out Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC), the ostensible one is Christian Genocide. It doesn’t matter if there is an actual Christian Genocide or not, there are enough reasons for Christians in Nigeria, – and all over the world – to feel real concern for the plight of the Christian north.

The issue now is whether President Bola Tinubu, a Muslim, but a liberal one from the south, can clean the Augean stable of religious intolerance and terrorism. Another issue is if Trump’s America is willing to partner with Tinubu’s Nigeria to achieve an acceptable level of religious tolerance and security. Does Tinubu have the conviction and the courage to take on an entrenched system that has benefited many northern leaders in the past and is still benefiting them knowing he is going to need them in less than two years’ time? A system that has weaponized religion, illiteracy, population and therefore, poverty. Or will he seek to satisfy US in another way? Us needs its dollar to be strong and as many countries as possible to keep trading in it. It needs its allies to stay loyal and not romance China or BRICS. It needs the rare earth minerals that Nigeria seems to have aplenty. Will appeasing the US in these and other areas make President Trump look away from the atrocities in the north? And what would be the cost to Nigeria should the President take this route? The options seem stark for Mr President. The first, if carried to a logical conclusion, will ruffle certain feathers – and could affect his second term ambition - but will halt insecurity and a possible disintegration of the country. The second seems easier on the surface, but could have long term consequences on the political and economic independence of the country. There is a third option which is to ‘walk’ the essence of the two options. But what is ‘the essence’ of the two? How far is he willing to go? It’s a very thin and tricky line and he would have to be a trapeze artiste to walk it.

• Muyiwa Adetiba is a veteran journalist and publisher. He can be reached via titbits2012@yahoo.com