A multiple shade of informed analysis of the outcomes so far recorded in the two-and-a-half-year economic reform measures of the Federal Government, FG, seem to have largely contradicted the government’s assessment of the performance.

The FG has recently scored itself excellent mark following the positive statistics released on the macroeconomic indicators which show, amongst others that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is improving, inflation is going down, the exchange rate is stable and the external reserves is rising.

Consequently, the government concluded that the economy has “turned the corner”.

But Vanguard findings from a large number of economists and stakeholders indicated that, while the statistics are welcome signs of good developments, the economy and the impact of the policies indicate a far more endemic problem across industries and the citizenry.

Major highlights of some of the pain points identified and expressed were that Nigeria’s economic improvement is largely on paper; Stability is not enough as the real economic situation is still embarrassing; Reform is full of paradoxes and gains are yet to translate to citizens’ welfare; Nigeria is still in debt trap; and that the Economy looks healthier in charts than it feels in Nigerian households.

They therefore concluded that the economy has not “turned the corner”.

However, another set of stakeholders told Vanguard that there are some wins so far, though much needed to be done before a convincing positive assessment can be credible.

They said the economic stabilisation path is now clear, but accelerated growth is needed; The reforms are promising, but not yet fully effective; Generally, we’re on the right path; and the reforms are credible, except that it there is the need for sustainability and inclusivity in growth and development figures. They also raise concerns over implementation of the good policies.

Nigerian’s economic improvement is largely on paper – ActionAid

The Country Director, ActionAid Nigeria, AAN, Dr Andrew Mamedu, while reacting to the Federal Government’s claim of economic reforms’ credibility and improvements in the country’s economy, asserted that it is largely on paper.

Mamedu said: “The Federal Government’s claim that Nigeria’s economy has “turned the corner” reflects a mix of modest progress and persistent structural weaknesses.

While some key macroeconomic indicators suggest improvement such as slowing inflation, a stabilised exchange rate, and marginal growth in non-oil revenue, these developments alone are not conclusive evidence that the ongoing reforms have become a credible or effective solution to Nigeria’s economic challenges.

“The reality is more complex: the reforms are directionally right but remain uneven, poorly sequenced, and insufficiently inclusive.

“The progress the FG claims is largely on paper and hides the fact that most Nigerians still feel no relief.”

He also argued that, “Much of the recent growth has come from a few sectors such as oil and services, not from areas that create jobs like agriculture, manufacturing, and small businesses.”

He pointed out that, “Inflation, though slowing, remains among the highest in Africa, and the cost of food and transport continues to rise.”

Reduced food prices traceable to border openings

“It is also fair to acknowledge a drop in food prices, but from ActionAid Nigeria’s findings, this drop is largely due to border openings that have flooded markets with imports, not increased local production.”

However, he said the importation is negatively impacting on local food production as farmers are making losses.

“While this offers short-term relief to consumers, it is creating deep losses for farmers who are selling below cost. Input costs, insecurity, and poor access to credit persist, meaning many farmers may struggle to replant for the next season.

“If production challenges remain, any current drop in prices will be temporary, and food scarcity could return.

“The nation needs more than the current strategies. Key requirements include: improved security across the board, especially for small-scale farmers; reduced input costs; and stronger protection for local producers, not just border measures that give the illusion of stability. Budget allocation and release to the agriculture sector must increase, and state and local governments need to do more.

“Furthermore, the removal of fuel subsidies helped government revenue, but without adequate safety nets, many low-income households have been pushed deeper into hardship. In simple terms, stabilising the economy is only the first step; Nigerians will only believe the reforms are credible when they see better jobs, fairer incomes, and stronger public services”, he stated.

However, the AAN boss acknowledged that the policies of the Tinubu-led administration are generally sound as he pointed out some salient impacts made on the economy.

“To the government’s credit, several policy measures have been technically sound. The unification of the exchange rate has improved transparency in foreign exchange management, reduced opportunities for arbitrage, and restored a measure of investor confidence.

“The Central Bank’s efforts to tighten money supply and curb speculative foreign exchange practices have helped to moderate inflation after months of volatility.

“The administration’s drive to expand the tax base through digitalisation and the forthcoming 2026 Tax Reform designed to ease the burden on low-income earners and small businesses while widening coverage for high-income individuals and digital sectors signals a move toward fiscal modernisation.

“Similarly, the introduction of performance benchmarks for revenue-generating agencies and the reduction in government borrowing from the Central Bank are steps toward stronger fiscal discipline.

No visible relief on citizens

“However, these measures have not yet translated into visible relief for ordinary Nigerians. The removal of fuel subsidies, though economically rational in theory, was implemented without adequate social safeguards.

“This has triggered an unprecedented rise in the cost of living, fueling inflation, reducing household purchasing power, and forcing millions below the poverty line.

“The savings from subsidy removal have not been transparently or effectively redirected into critical areas such as education, healthcare, or social protection. Consequently, the reform appears punitive to citizens rather than redistributive.

Furthermore, structural bottlenecks continue to erode whatever gains the reforms could achieve. Unreliable power supply, costly logistics, and insecurity in food-producing regions have kept production costs high.

“Small and Medium Enterprises, which are the backbone of job creation, are suffocating under these pressures despite promised incentives. The formal economy remains narrow, with most Nigerians in the informal sector still outside the reach of financial inclusion policies.

“While the 2026 Tax Reform promises relief for workers earning less than ¦ 800,000 annually and for micro-enterprises, the overall economic environment marked by inflation, high energy costs, and weak demand could undermine these benefits.

“Debt servicing remains another serious drag. Over 70 per cent of federal revenue continues to go into paying debts, crowding out investment in social and physical infrastructure.

“Without reining in borrowing or renegotiating debt terms, Nigeria risks perpetuating a cycle of fiscal vulnerability.

“In addition, unemployment and underemployment, particularly among youth, remain alarmingly high, highlighting a disconnect between macroeconomic gains and real-sector outcomes.

“To truly improve the economy, Nigeria needs reforms that are not only technically sound but also socially just and inclusive.

“First, fiscal policy must prioritise spending that directly improves livelihoods, investments in agriculture, local manufacturing, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure should take precedence over administrative overheads.

“Second, the government must institutionalise targeted social protection systems that shield vulnerable populations from the short-term pains of reform.

“Third, monetary policy should strike a balance between stabilising prices and stimulating production which ensures access to affordable credit for small businesses and productive sectors.

“Fourth, Nigeria must deepen its fight against corruption and leakages in public finance to build citizens’ confidence that sacrifices made through reforms are not wasted.

“Finally, reforms must be anchored in dialogue with civil society, labour unions, and the private sector, so that policy measures reflect the lived realities of Nigerians.”

Recommendations

Speaking on policies that can truly improve the Nigerian economy, Mamedu called for combination of sound economics, social protection and job creation policies.

He said: “To make growth inclusive, Nigeria must combine sound economics with social protection and job creation.

“Expanding targeted cash transfers and redirecting savings from fuel subsidies to public services would protect poor households and keep consumer spending alive.

“For example, countries like Kenya and Ghana have used well-managed social safety nets to cushion vulnerable families during reform periods.

“The government should also support micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) with access to affordable credit, tax incentives, and digital tools to create jobs quickly.

“Agriculture deserves special attention, not only in production but also in processing and distribution. Investments in storage facilities, rural roads, and irrigation can raise farmer incomes and reduce food inflation”.

Meanwhile he further stated that it is imperative for the Tinubu-led administration to give serious attention to fiscal policies.

His words, “On the fiscal side, Nigeria must broaden its tax base, reduce leakages, and prioritise spending on roads, power, schools, and hospitals.

“The Central Bank should maintain stable and predictable policies that encourage business planning, while government agencies must improve transparency and curb corruption in contracts and procurement.

“Over the long term, investing in education, vocational training, healthcare, and the digital economy will boost productivity, create jobs, and help Nigeria compete globally”, he added.

Stability is not enough, we are in a very embarrassing situation, govt is too arrogant – Kpakol

Appraising the economic situation at the backdrop of the two-year-old economic reform, Prof. Magnus Kpakol former Economic Adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo and headed the Ministry of National Planning, completely disagreed with the government on the state of the economy. In fact, he is of the opinion that that Nigeria’s situation is embarrassing while accusing the government of arrogance in their presentation of the situation.

His words, “What is amazing is that we don’t pay attention to development. What the country needs is to be able to say we are making progress. If I am going on a journey of 100 miles and I go three /miles, I am making progress. But what type of progress?

“We can admit that the administration has stabilized the monetary, fiscal and macroeconomy. But stability is not enough. We need performance. With stabilization, you will not see a deterioration.

“We need more than stabilization. We need progress. Let me illustrate it this way. If a person is about to die and you stabilize him, even though that person has been stabilized, he is certainly not ready for the Olympics.

Nigeria’s major problem is that we are not a productive economy.

“If the government says the economy is growing and it does not improve life expectancy, more people descend into poverty, what kind of growth or development is that? What impact has it made on the living standards of the people?

“When the World Bank came out with its report on Nigeria recently and declared that over 130 million Nigerians had fallen into poverty, the federal government tried to fight back, but that does not change the fact.

“As a result of the reforms, average Nigerians suffered significant loss in their purchasing power, the reforms further undermined their very fragile income situation and remember that Nigeria now occupies the last place in Life Expectancy in the world.

“I am not blaming the Tinubu administration for all the economic challenges of Nigeria because there have been a long history of sleaze and massive inefficiency in the body polity.

“If you are participating in a car race and you keep stopping to check your engine and tyres, you can never win. For the Nigerian economy to develop, you need efficiency and speed.

“If you take a village football team to compete against Arsenal, you can be sure you will never win. To win a football match, you need speed and control. In Nigeria our speed is a factor that drags us backward. With a per capita of only just over $800, we are in a very embarrassing situation.

“If you go outside Abuja, to the suburbs of the FCT, you can’t see expatriates. Reason? They can’t live in those areas. Yet the government is there beating its chest of having achieved so much within two years.

“I think the problem is that the government is too arrogant, especially the Federal Government. They claim to do what they cannot do.

“My position in all these is that we need to adopt the FLO Model. FLO means Full Local Ownership of resources within the communities. If you grant the local communities the full ownership of the resources in their communities, nobody can mess around with them. Every community has something it can produce.

“The government is celebrating 4 percent growth but we ought to be growing at 10 percent and above. $1 trillion economy will be a complete dream unless we are able to grow at 15 or 16 percent. If you don’t have double digit, how will you achieve a $1 trillion economy in 2030, which is just five years away?

“The only way is to empower every community. We can achieve this by allowing every community to own whatever it is endowed with. Every community in this country has something it can produce, even if it is sand. There is too much inefficiency at the centre. The corruption level is too high.

“Having stabilized the economy, we should now look at how to be productive. We can’t develop on portfolio investments and loans.

“Subsidy can be re-introduced for the poor/vulnerable. If I were the Economic Adviser, we would not have removed the entire subsidy. Even now, I advocate a Temporary Economic Assistance Measures. There should be subsidy for inter-state transporters, taxis and buses. There should be a form of subsidy for public transport. We have to find a way to ease the pressure on the poor and vulnerable.

“The rich can buy fuel at market prices, but to sell at the same rate to public transporters will make life unbearable for those already under immense pressure”.

Stabilisation path clear, but accelerated growth needed — MAN

Making his assessment of Federal Government’s position on the outcomes of its two and half year-old economic reform, the Director General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the whole economic stabilisation path has been cleared, but there is a need for accelerated growth, adding that the government must make manufacturing the nucleus of the growth strategy.

He stated: “The modest yet consecutive rise in the confidence index of manufacturers since Q2 2025 reaffirms that Nigeria’s economy is on a path of gradual recovery.

“The stabilisation path has been cleared; what lies ahead is the imperative of accelerated growth. To sustain this trajectory, exchange rate stability must be guarded with every available policy tool”.

The MAN DG further said: “It is noteworthy to state that the manufacturing sector is gradually inching towards the path of full recovery. This is evident in the meagre but consistent increase in the index in Q2 and Q3.

“To secure the gains of stabilisation and accelerate prosperity, Nigeria must make manufacturing the nucleus of its growth strategy.”

Reforms promising, but not yet fully effective – Small business owners

At the backdrop of the Federal Government’s assessment of its economic reforms outcome which says that “the economy has turned the corner”, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Dr. Femi Egbesola, has called for caution in the interpretation of the positive macroeconomic indicators, noting the government’s reforms are promising but not yet fully effective.

His words: “While it is encouraging to see positive macroeconomic indicators suggesting that Nigeria’s economy may be stabilizing, we must be cautious in interpreting these numbers.

“Economic soundness is not only about statistics – it’s about the live experiences of ordinary citizens and small business owners.

“For the reforms to be considered truly credible and effective, they must translate into tangible improvements: lower inflation, affordable credit, stable exchange rates, job creation, and a friendlier business environment.

“Until small businesses and households begin to feel real relief, we can only say that the reforms are promising, but not yet fully effective.”

Reform full of paradoxes, gains yet to translate to citizens’ welfare – Justin, Economist

Also commenting, Dr. Amase Justin, former spokesman of the Nigeria Economic Society (NSE), economy expert and MD/CEO Macrostrat Nigeria Ltd, said the ongoing economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu are full of paradoxes despite the positive macroeconomic figures being churned out.

His words: “To determine whether the President Tinubu administration’s reform policies have worked or not, you have to first know the national economic challenges they were designed to address.

“At the commencement of President Tinubu’s administration in May 2023, the Nigerian economy was beset by many macroeconomic and social challenges that pushed it to near fiscal collapse.

“These include: The over dependence on oil revenue and low structural transformation of the economy; the crippling oil subsidy regime; the perpetually weak naira and external sector pressure; the unsustainable national debt burden; high and rising inflation; reducing capacity utilisation and right-sizing by companies and many cases outright closures; Insecurity across the country; amongst many others”.

Justin explained that the combination of all these downside risks to the Nigerian economy created rising poverty, with over 46% of Nigerians living below the poverty line.

He listed some key achievements of the reforms so far. “Given the above scenario of the economy that President Tinubu inherited, our technical assessment of the impact of his flagship reform policies as of 2025 shows the following positive impacts of the reforms: Economic growth has recovered from it declining trend in 2023 to a consistent rising trend; Subsidy removal has impacted fiscal space positively in terms of reduced budget deficits and higher share of revenue to the subnational tiers.”

He stated further: “Fiscal reforms on revenue collection have ramped up fiscal revenue from improved tax administration, higher MDA and government enterprises remittances, and improved state IGR, resulting in improvements in the consolidated fiscal position with lower budget deficit and declining debt-service-to-revenue ratio.

“The exchange rate unification policy has resulted in better exchange price discovery, rate stability, and the elimination of most market abuses. This has restored investors’ confidence as reflected in higher investment inflows since 2024.

“Monetary policy reforms are gradually bringing the inflation rate down, but below expectations, as the rate remains high, creating net negative real returns on investment.

“Improved business confidence- evidenced by the trending of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) above the 50-point threshold, has improved business activity.

“There are also key positive reform impacts on Nigeria’s external sector, with consistent positive current account and trade balance, and the increase in external reserves”.

However, Justin also gave a long list of negative impacts of the reforms.

He stated: “National poverty has continued to rise because of the inflationary impacts of the reform policies. Economic growth has not been inclusive, and the slow roll-out of social safety net programmes such as targeted cash transfers has compounded the negative reform policy impacts.

GDP per capita, a core indicator of well-being, has continued on an annual declining trend.

“Therefore, reform gains are yet to translate to major improvements in citizens’ welfare”.

Going further on the many paradoxes he listed as the devil in the details of the reform outcomes, Justin stated: “While GDP is growing, Nigeria’s GDP ranking in Africa has fallen from first to fourth position as a result of the reforms.

“Significant exchange rate depreciation caused by the exchange rate unification policy has kept imports and industrial inputs costs high, exercabating inflationary pressures.

“Subsidy removal gains have not been fully realised as NNPCL only started remitting 50 per cent of the gains in January 2025, and tax on foreign exchange revenue gains are yet to be remitted to the federation account.

“While debt-service/revenue ratio is declining, national debt stock has continued to rise progressively, with an embedded threat to fiscal and debt sustainability.

“In the face of rising fiscal revenue, it is hard to justify the ongoing rapid growth of national debt stock.

“The space of growth in national infrastructure stock has remained rather slow to adequately complement the positive gains of the reforms towards speedy structural transformation to drive economic diversification for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth”.

In conclusion, Justin stated: “The President Tinubu economic reforms have thrown up fiscal, monetary, and social paradoxes that have delineated winners from losers.

“It could be said that while the reform policies have addressed some major structural distortions required for macroeconomic stability and positive structural transformation, they have unleashed significant short-term welfare losses and challenges.

“It is recommended that the government should sustain the flagship reforms such as exchange rate unification and subsidy removal. It should, however, design policies to significantly ameliorate the negative fallouts of these policies on the welfare of Nigerians.

“A major drive for rapid growth in Nigeria’s infrastructure stock using partnership with the private sector and development partners, and the reduction in the poverty rate should be given priority fiscal allocation and policy attention.

“Tackling and restoring security of life and property will unleash multiple positive impacts on domestic and foreign investment inflows as well as local food production to assure food security”.

Nigeria still in debt trap, economy has not turned corner – Adonri, Financial Analyst

Commenting on the Federal Government’s assertion that Nigeria’s economy has turned the corner to soundness based on current macroeconomic statistics, David Adonri, analyst and Vice Executive Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said: “Nigeria’s economy has not yet turned the corner as claimed by FGN. Inflation rate is still at double digit while interest rate is also at higher double digit. FGN is still borrowing to settle debt obligations indicating that it is still in debt trap. The raging war unleashed by bandits and terrorists has continued with undiminished intensity unsettling every sector of the economy.

“In view of these, it is premature for anyone to claim that the economy has turned the corner”.

Economy looks healthier in charts than it feels in Nigerian households – Egbomeade

For, Clifford Egbomeade, public policy analyst and communications expert, the reforms were good in principle but the impact on the citizentry has been bad.

Speaking to Vanguard on the Federal Government’s assessment of itself on the economic policies, Egbomeade stated: “Nigeria’s latest economic figures point to genuine macroeconomic improvement.

Headline inflation eased further to 18.02% in September 2025 from 24.2% in March 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of disinflation and the lowest rate since early 2023. The naira has also stabilised around N1,480–N1,500 per dollar, a sharp recovery from over N1,700 just months ago, while foreign reserves now stand at roughly $42.3 billion, the highest in five years. “Combined with modest improvements in oil production and capital inflows, these indicators show that the Central Bank’s tightening cycle, FX unification, and bank recapitalisation policies have restored a degree of monetary credibility and market confidence”.

Continuing, he said: “However, these improvements are macroeconomic, not yet microeconomic. Food prices remain high: a 50kg bag of rice that cost N28,000 in 2020 still sells around N80,000 today, while petrol, once N145 per litre, is about N 865, and most workers’ salaries have not kept pace with the cost of living. Real wages remain depressed despite the new N70,000 minimum wage, which many states have yet to implement. The cost-of-living crisis still lingers: transport fares, rent, and school fees continue to erode household income. The result is a paradox: the economy looks healthier in charts than it feels in Nigerian households.

“In truth, the reforms are credible but not yet effective. To make progress tangible, the government must now focus on translating macro gains into livelihoods; scaling up social protection, boosting agricultural productivity to reduce food inflation, and expanding affordable credit for small and medium-sized businesses.

“Only then will Nigerians feel that the “corner turned” is not just statistical, but truly transformational”. (Saturday Vanguard)