Ekiti State was agog on Monday. It was the day political bigwigs in the state came out in their numbers to publicly endorse the state governor, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, and Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for a second term in office.

Oyebanji would be seeking re-election for a second term in office next year, while Tinubu would be re-contesting for president in 2027.

The major highlight of the rally held in the state capital, Ado-Ekiti, and which had Ondo State governor, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, in attendance was that three former governors of the state, irrespective of their political parties, publicly declared their support for the re-election of the governor.

They include Mr. Adeniyi Adebayo, Ayodele Fayose and Segun Oni. The other former governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, who was not in attendance, also endorsed the governor and sought support for his re-election from the people.

The political landscape in South West Nigeria is shifting ahead of the 2027 general elections.

At present, out of the six states in the region, four, including Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, and Ekiti, are being controlled by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), with their governors working towards the party’s success.

The other two – Oyo and Osun States, are being governed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The Action Democratic Congress (ADC), being led by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola in the South West, has yet been unable to have a strong presence in the zone. Some have said, however, that Aregbesola, the Acting National Secretary of ADC, has the political muscle that could shape the party’s growth in some parts of the zone, notably in some parts of his state, Osun.

It was speculated of recent that the PDP-controlled state of Osun, might be collapsed into APC due to Governor Ademola Adeleke’s rumored departure from PDP.

The move by Adeleke to join APC ahead of the next year’s off-cycle governorship poll in Osun State, impeccable sources revealed, was met by a strong opposition within the critical stakeholders in the state.

But President Bola Tinubu, sources said, was favourably disposed to Governor Ademola Adeleke coming into APC. Some strong stakeholders within the Osun APC reportedly met with Tinubu and told him that if he allowed Adeleke to come into APC, they would not have anything to do with the governor. They were reported to have impressed it on the president that though they might remain in the APC, they would not work for the governor’s success in the APC.

In a bid not to rock the boat, some horse trading were said to have been done underground, which culminated in the decision that Governor Adeleke should stay back in PDP to prosecute his re-election bid. Already, some cabinet members of PDP in Osun have moved into the APC. Governor Adeleke himself has also endorsed President Tinubu of APC for a second term, even as a PDP governor. The development has made political pundits to say that PDP might only be existing in name only in Osun, and that the party’s soul and spirit is actually in APC.

During an encounter with journalists in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, was asked to respond to a speculation that President Tinubu is interested in Governor Adeleke coming to APC, but that a former governor of the state, Adegboyega Oyetola, who is the current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, is not happy about it. Basiru spoke strongly in defence of Oyetola.

His words: “I don’t know who you spoke with. If you said Oyetola is not happy with the president, the person that told you that is not loyal to our state leader, that is Minister Oyetola. The person does not like our minister. The minister is happy with the president.

“For me, I like our leader. Governor Oyetola will never say he is not happy with Mr. President.

“As the national secretary of the party, and as of today, I don’t deal with speculations; Adeleke has not yet joined our party. I said this with the benefit that I have. As of now, it is in the realm of speculation.

“Of course, APC is a beautiful bride for anyone who wants to join. But I must say that I am a party man and an establishment politician, and I am one of the people who are extremely loyal to Mr. President, notwithstanding that I may be nursing ambition to be governor of Osun State.

“Whatever President Bola Ahmed Tinubu says about his stand on the issue of Osun, I believe that he knows the roads. We can afford to follow him blindfolded. He will take decisions from the position of wisdom and what would advance the larger interest of the progressives family in Osun State.

“I know some people are trying to drag me into the issues that the APC national secretary is not saying anything about it. As of today, that decamping is not on board. “Assuming, without conceding, that our leader says this is what he wants, I, Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Basiru, any day, any time, come rain, come shine, I stand with whatever decision the leadership of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu says, even if it affects what I considered to be my personal interest, because I did not get to where I am today alone.

“It is by the grace of Almighty God and the support I got from leadership of the party.”

It has also been speculated that the advent of opposition coalition in ADC in Nigeria, might alter the political dynamics in Osun State.

As observed, the teaming up of PDP and APC in the state might spell doom for ADC, which has a former governor of the state, and former Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, as its Acting National Secretary.

But it is only time that would tell if ADC has got its right footings in Osun, or it has just embarked on a fruitless journey.

In Oyo State, there are speculations about Governor Makinde potentially aligning with APC in his post-office political endeavours.

The governor will complete his second term in 2027. But he has said on some occasions that he wants to become president of Nigeria.

Former Commissioner for Justice in Oyo State, Ojo Adebayo (SAN), featured on a live radio programme in Ibadan, and said Governor Makinde would go to the Senate in 2027, though he has not said it by himself. He described Makinde as a central figure, who currently has the key and overwhelming support of the people across party lines. He was of the opinion that Makinde would largely determine who succeeds him as governor and the presidential candidate that would win in the state in 2027.

But power brokers in Oyo politics have also noted that Makinde might work for the electoral victory of Tinubu, though arguably he would stay in PDP and work for APC. However, the Publicity Secretary of PDP in Oyo State, Michael Ogunsina, said: Let me say categorically without fear of contradiction that Governor Seyi Makinde is not going to into APC or the ADC. I can tell you that for a fact. Governor Seyi Makinde said it recently at a meeting he had with zonal caucus that if it would remain only one governor with PDP, that governor would be Seyi Makinde. This is very clear. There is no ambiguity about it.

“Then, about speculations that the opposition is dying in South West, that is completely far from the truth. President Tinubu did not win the entire South West in 2023.

“As a matter of fact, if you look at the 2019 elections, as at the time that PDP won in Oyo State, APC was in power in all the states in the South West.

“Also, former President Muhammadu Buhari lost his re-election bid in Oyo State in 2019, as the PDP presidential candidate then, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, won in Oyo State. “If you check INEC data, Buhari had the highest number of votes in the state in 2015, yet four years later, he lost in the state.

“So, the Yoruba people have always been ideological and standing for what they believe in. You need to know that the fraction of politicians is very tiny compared to those who are actually voting. Like Ali Ndume said, the electorate are not decamping.

“Our responsibility as a political party is to fix our party, solidify our base, close ranks, invite people with proven integrity, and reposition our party for electoral victory.

“My leader, the governor of Oyo State, has no pact with the APC. We are not working for President Tinubu in Oyo State. We are in PDP, and we stand with PDP. We are not part of any coalition. We are not interested in any coalition. If anything, people should come to PDP and join the coalition.” With four states under APC and potential gains from PDP, according to trends, the party might strengthen its position in the South West.

Also, it has been observed that the perceived dwindling influence and potential defections could hinder PDP’s performance in the zone during the general elections.

In the same vein, analysts have said that without a strong footing, ADC’s impact in the South West might be limited ahead of the 2027 elections. When contacted, the National Vice Chairman of PDP in the South West Zone, Kamorudeen Ajisafe, asserted that the opposition remained strong in the zone.

“We are formidable as ever. Let me quickly tell you that Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State won his election the last time in 2022 with only three House of Assembly members. We had no chairman of local government and there was no councillor. We won.

“But it is a pity that a survey that came out sometime ago rated Governor Adeleke that he was one per cent more popular than the PDP. The PDP had 76 per cent rating, while Adeleke had 77.1 per cent rating.”

Ajisafe stated further that the power rotation arrangement between the Northern and the Southern regions would always play significant roles in who becomes president of Nigeria.

He continued: “With the understanding that we have, if we believe the presidency should go to the south, until the dynamics changes, or otherwise, there is nothing bad in supporting the president as regards to his own election.

“But I can assure you that it is not going to affect any other ticket or any other election into the National Assembly or any other position whatsoever. This is the position of Governor Adeleke. It is only Governor Adeleke that can say more about that.

“But we are more focused on the Osun State governorship election in 2026. As regards opposition, you can rest assured that the opposition is solid. We are good to go.”

It has also been analysed that if truly opposition parties and their influences are waning in the South West ahead of the 2027 general elections, the development could significantly impact the political dynamics in the zone.

As gathered, the APC’s stronghold, coupled with potential transitions from PDP, might solidify the party’s position, which could make opposition to fade away in the South West in 2027. (Saturday Sun)