As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election, its political scene is shifting dramatically.

All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Bola Tinubu, maintains a strong grip on many states and national resources.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), boosted by a group of well-known opposition leaders, is emerging as a serious rival. Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a major force, is struggling with internal conflicts and losing members, making its future uncertain in this high-stakes contest.

Power vs. ambition

Nigeria’s current political landscape is a contest between entrenched power and rising ambition. The APC controls 23 of the country’s 36 states, including key strongholds in the North-West and South-West.

President Tinubu, a seasoned political strategist, leverages these advantages by appointing loyalists to key positions and funding high-profile infrastructure projects.

However, growing economic hardship is fuelling public frustration.

There is also a growing sense among some northerners that Tinubu’s administration disproportionately benefits his South-West base. This perception could erode APC support in northern states such as Sokoto, Adamawa, and Jigawa where influential figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Governors Aminu Tambuwal and Sule Lamido remain highly respected.

Fragmentation

The ADC, once a relatively small party, has grown rapidly by attracting high-profile political figures from across the country. They include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar from the North-East, Nasir El-Rufai and Abubakar Malami from the North-West, David Mark from the North Central, Peter Obi from the South-East, Rauf Aregbesola from the South-West, and Rotimi Amaechi from the South-South. Together, this diverse group hopes to challenge the APC by uniting Nigeria’s fragmented opposition.

However, the ADC still lacks the APC’s expansive grassroots structure and nationwide organisation. Its current momentum relies heavily on the popularity and regional influence of its leaders. Atiku, for example, retains strong support in Adamawa due to his long-standing political presence, while Obi’s appeal in Anambra is rooted in his 2023 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the PDP, which governed Nigeria from 1999 to 2015, is in steady decline. It now controls just 10 states, including Bayelsa, Enugu, and Oyo, down from 14 before the 2023 elections. In the National Assembly, the party holds 118 seats in the House of Representatives and 36 in the Senate. The defection of key figures to both the ADC and APC, coupled with ongoing internal divisions, has significantly weakened the party, leaving it struggling to reclaim its former dominance.

Voters

Public sentiment is increasingly shaped by economic hardship and regional loyalties. In urban centres, young people facing high unemployment and rising living costs are growing more frustrated, particularly in Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and Port Harcourt.

In Lagos, for instance, youth-led protests over joblessness have intensified since 2023. In northern regions, traditional APC supporters are beginning to question their loyalty, as many believe that recent economic policies, such as the removal of the fuel subsidy, disproportionately benefit the South-West, where the cost of petrol is notably lower than in other parts of the country.

The PDP still holds some appeal among older voters in the South-South and North-Central, regions where it governed states like Delta and Benue for many years. However, younger Nigerians increasingly view the PDP as outdated and disconnected from realities, leaning instead toward the ADC.

The ADC Is gaining traction among voters disillusioned with both the APC and PDP. But to convert that interest into electoral success, it must convince the public that it can deliver on key promises, particularly in areas such as job creation, governance, and national unity.

Tensions

The APC’s control of 23 states, including strategic regions such as the North-West and South-West, gives it a clear electoral advantage. With governors and local leaders firmly in place, the party maintains a strong grassroots presence, allowing it to engage with voters efficiently. Political consultations and low-key campaigning have already begun in states like Kano, Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

To retain the presidency in 2027, the APC must secure at least 25% of votes in 24 states, a task that makes the northern bloc crucial to its strategy.

Defections

The ADC is gaining ground as politicians continue to defect from both the PDP and APC. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, now with the ADC, brings significant support from the North-East. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, maintains strong followership in the South-East and urban centres such as Lagos and the FCT. Meanwhile, former APC chieftain Rotimi Amaechi boosts the party’s profile in the South-South.

With these influential figures, the ADC could mount a credible challenge to the APC in 10 to 12 states, including Adamawa, Imo, Lagos, and Delta, where these leaders enjoy substantial popularity.

For instance, Obi’s surprising victory in Lagos during the 2023 presidential election highlighted his resonance with young, urban voters. However, the ADC’s heavy reliance on such big personalities also exposes its vulnerability. Disagreements over leadership or the party’s direction could cause internal fractures.

Moreover, voters may grow sceptical of politicians who frequently switch parties, viewing them as opportunists more interested in power than in consistent principles or long-term vision.

Economic difficulties

Economic hardship is playing a major role in reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape.

In northern states such as Zamfara, where poverty affects more than 70% of residents, anger is growing over policies like the removal of the fuel subsidy, which has driven up transport costs and deepened economic hardship.

The APC argues that these reforms will ultimately strengthen the economy, which is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025. However, many Nigerians are feeling the pain, and frustration is rising.

The ADC has positioned itself as a party of change, promising job creation and fairer economic policies, including tax relief for small businesses. Yet, it has so far offered limited details on how it plans to deliver these promises.

Meanwhile, the PDP continues to struggle with its public image. Many voters still associate the party with past economic mismanagement, including allegations of misuse of oil revenues, making it difficult to rebuild trust or present itself as a credible alternative.

ADC vs. APC

The APC currently controls 23 states, including Lagos, Borno, Kaduna, Ogun, and Ondo; giving it a significant advantage ahead of the 2027 elections. Its network of governors and local leaders plays a crucial role in organising grassroots campaigns, such as rallies and door-to-door mobilisation, to connect with voters.

In the North-West, states like Katsina and Kaduna remain APC strongholds. However, in Kano, the party faces stiff competition from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), which secured the governorship in 2023. The ADC also poses a potential threat in Kano, further complicating the APC’s chances.

In the South-West, Lagos and Ogun are traditional APC bases. Yet, rising living costs and economic discontent among urban voters could impact the party’s support in these areas.

The ADC, despite having no governors, is gaining ground and could be competitive in 10 to 12 states, including Adamawa, where Atiku holds sway, Imo and Enugu, where Obi maintains influence, and Rivers, where Amaechi’s legacy as a former governor gives the party a foothold.

However, the ADC’s growth is hindered by its weak organisational structure and internal disagreements among its top figures, which may limit its ability to mount a unified national challenge.

To maintain its lead across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, the APC must retain the loyalty of northern voters and urgently address economic issues, especially by creating jobs and easing the cost-of-living crisis.

Election battle

The 2027 presidential election will be a crucial test for Nigeria’s democracy. With its control of state resources and perceived influence over the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the APC remains the frontrunner. Its campaign machinery, already active in key areas such as Lagos and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), benefits from access to state funding and an established political network.

The ADC hopes to counter this advantage by leveraging the regional popularity of its high-profile leaders and appealing to young voters, particularly those active on social media platforms.

Ultimately, the outcome of the elections would depend on voter turnout, the state of the economy, and whether the opposition can overcome internal divisions and form a united front.

Key states to watch

Some states will be crucial in 2027 because they are competitive and have diverse voters. They include Lagos, Rivers, Kaduna,Lagos, Plateau, Osun, Enugu, enue, and FCT among others

Lagos

Peter Obi won here in 2023, challenging the APC’s control of Nigeria’s economic hub. Young voters, upset about high costs, and city diversity make it uncertain.

Rivers:

Rotimi Amaechi’s ADC support competes with Nyesom Wike’s APC-backed state control. Rivers’ wealth from oil and its political tensions make it a hotspot.

Kaduna

Mixed ethnic and religious groups, including economic issues like high food prices, make it unpredictable. The ADC could gain if Nasir El-Rufai successfully sways northern voters to turn away from the APC generally.

Plateau

Religious differences and PDP’s strength will contend with ADC, creating a three-way race.

Osun

The prospects of the PDP and APC are not bright given that Osun voters are also frustrated by the economic realities in the country.

Enugu

Peter Obi’s popularity gives the ADC a strong boost in Enugu and across the South-East. However, Governor Peter Mbah’s performance in office, along with the PDP’s long-standing dominance in Enugu, may help the PDP retain support in the state despite rising opposition momentum.

FCT

Young city voters and diversity make it competitive for all parties, with social media driving campaigns.

Benue

A PDP base with growing APC influence, Benue’s ethnic issues, like farmer-herder clashes, make it open to the ADC.

Adamawa

Atiku’s home state, Adamawa, is now considered an ADC stronghold. However, both the APC and the ruling PDP in the state are expected to push back strongly, using the advantage of federal and state resources to counter the ADC’s growing influence.

Election

INEC’s credibility remains a major concern ahead of the 2027 elections. The 2023 polls, marked by a low turnout of just 27% and widespread allegations of electoral malpractice, significantly eroded public trust. In states like Lagos, for example, some voters reported irregularities in the vote-counting process.

The APC’s close ties to the federal government have raised concerns about its influence over INEC, potentially giving it an unfair advantage. If the 2027 election is perceived as rigged, the fallout could go beyond court disputes.

PDP

The PDP remains a significant political force, controlling 10 states, including Bayelsa, Bauchi, and Oyo, and holding 118 seats in the House of Representatives and 36 in the Senate. This gives the party some leverage in shaping legislation and influencing political campaigns.

However, the defection of prominent figures such as Atiku Abubakar and David Mark to the ADC has weakened the PDP, particularly in the North-East and North-Central regions. Internal divisions, especially the rivalry between Nyesom Wike and Governor Seyi Makinde, have made it difficult for the party to present a united front or plan effectively.

Governors like Dauda Lawal in Zamfara and Ademola Adeleke in Osun could play a role in revitalising the PDP by focusing on local governance and improving services such as education and healthcare.

Still, the party faces serious challenges. Many voters view the PDP as part of Nigeria’s political past, while the ADC is gaining traction, particularly among younger voters in the South-East.

Allegations of corruption during the PDP’s rule from 1999 to 2015 continue to damage its credibility, especially with a youth population demanding fresh ideas and genuine reform.

Divided Opposition

The rise of the ADC has further fragmented Nigeria’s opposition, drawing votes and resources away from the PDP. While the PDP still controls 10 states and holds 152 seats in the National Assembly, giving it a structural advantage, it lacks the momentum and grassroots energy that the ADC currently enjoys, largely fuelled by high-profile figures like Peter Obi, Rauf Aregbesola, Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Babachir Lawal and Nasir El-Rufai.

To effectively challenge the APC’s well-organised and resource-rich machinery, the opposition must find a way to work together. However, internal divisions continue to make unity difficult. The 2023 election illustrated this clearly, as the split between the PDP and the Labour Party ultimately helped the APC retain power.

The PDP’s ongoing challenges are a warning: when a party loses strategic focus and fails to adapt, it risks becoming irrelevant. For the ADC, this serves as a critical lesson, staying united and focused is essential if it hopes to lead a credible challenge in 2027.

Meanwhile, the PDP could still influence the outcome in key states, but only if it resolves its internal divisions and rebuilds trust with voters.

PDP’s strengths and weaknesses

The PDP’s organisation covers all six regions, better than the ADC’s limited setup, with offices in every state.

10 states, like Bayelsa, Enugu, and Oyo, provide economic and numeric advantages to PDP.

Having 118 House of Representatives seats and 36 senators is also an added advantage.

Also, old voters in the South-South and North-Central, where PDP ruled for years, still have sympathy for the party.

However, as things stand, PDP is a divided house, making a high impact in the general elections unlikely.

Disputes, like Wike vs. Makinde, are a threat to the party’s plans and prospects. The absence of a consensus on joining the ADC has also left the PDP more divided.

Critical moment

The 2027 election will play a decisive role in shaping Nigeria’s future. The APC holds a strong position, with control of numerous states and access to significant government resources. However, it faces growing risks, posed by economic hardship, high inflation, and rising regional tensions, particularly in the North.

The ADC presents a credible challenge, but its success depends on maintaining unity and running a focused national campaign. Meanwhile, although weakened, the PDP could still influence outcomes in a few states if it regains cohesion and reconnects with voters. (Sunday Vanguard)