The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which intensified considerably in June 2025, may have dire consequences for Nigeria, given its reliance on oil exports, geopolitical stance, and local socioeconomic dynamics.

Here are five significant ways Nigeria might be affected, based on current evidence and analysis:

Oil Price volatility and economic implications

The ongoing conflict has disrupted global oil markets, causing crude oil prices to rise due to worries of supply interruptions, particularly if Iran’s oil facilities or vital shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, are compromised.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, stands to benefit from increased oil revenue, which would enhance its foreign reserves and support government budgets.

However, this may lead to an increase in domestic fuel prices, as petrol is currently above N900 ($0.58) per litre.

Higher fuel costs might exacerbate inflation, increase transportation and industrial costs, and raise Nigerians’ living expenses, thereby offsetting any fiscal benefits.

Safety concerns for Nigerians in conflict zones

Nigerians residing in Israel and Iran, notably students and expats in Tel Aviv and Tehran, are at severe risk as a result of missile exchanges and airstrikes.

According to reports, Nigerians are seeking refuge in subterranean bunkers, while commercial and social activity has been interrupted.

The Nigerian government is organising evacuations, but it has faced criticism for being slower to respond than nations such as the United States and China. Ensuring the safety and return of these people is an urgent issue.

Potential for domestic sectarian tensions

Nigeria’s diverse religious landscape, with significant Muslim and Christian populations, makes it sensitive to Middle Eastern conflicts.

The Israel-Iran conflict could inflame sectarian sentiments, as both communities hold strong views on Middle Eastern issues.

Iran’s efforts to spread Shiism in Nigeria, associated with figures like Imam Zakzaky, could exacerbate tensions, particularly if local groups align with either side.

This risks domestic unrest if not carefully managed through diplomatic neutrality and robust internal security.

Disruption of trade and bilateral relations

Nigeria maintains bilateral relations with both Israel and Iran, importing products like agricultural technology from Israel and engaging in limited trade with Iran. Conflict could disrupt these supply chains, leading to shortages of specific goods.

Additionally, religious pilgrimage sites in both countries, popular among Nigerian Christians and Shiite Muslims, may see reduced visits due to safety concerns, impacting cultural and economic exchanges. Nigeria’s call for de-escalation reflects its attempt to preserve these ties without taking sides.

Geopolitical and diplomatic pressure

The war puts Nigeria in a difficult diplomatic position, as global countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are dragged into it.

Nigeria’s condemnation of Israel’s preemptive attacks and appeals for discussion have stirred controversy over its foreign policy goals, with some accusing it of unwarranted involvement.

Aligning too closely with either side may disrupt relationships with crucial partners or bring pressure from superpowers.

Meanwhile, a protracted battle may distract foreign funding and counterterrorism help away from Nigeria, exacerbating its security issues with Boko Haram and banditry.

While Nigeria is not directly participating in the conflict, its economic reliance on oil, diaspora presence, and internal religious dynamics leave it vulnerable to the fallout from the Iran-Israel escalation.

Strategic economic diversification, effective diplomacy, and stronger internal security measures are imperative in reducing the repercussions. (Daily Sun)