Indications have emerged that the forthcoming presidential election billed for February 11, 2023, may not go the way of the 1979 poll in which Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Shagari emerged the president.

During the said election, which marked a return to civil rule after 13 years of military interregnum, there were five political parties and presidential candidates in the run up to the election. Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) held sway in the LOBOO States of Lagos, Ondo, Bendel, Ogun and Oyo. Dr, Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) had South East states of Anambra, Imo and Plateau, with Dr. Waziri Ibrahim of the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP), holding forth in Borno and Gongola States and Mallam Aminu Kano had Kano and Kaduna states in his control while Alhaji Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) took control of Sokoto, Niger, Bauchi, Kwara, Rivers, Benue and Cross River.

But over the years, the structures of the states have changed with new states created from some of the existing states. Osun came out of Oyo, Ondo had Ekiti, Kaduna gave birth to Katsina and Kano Jigawa.

Others were: Enugu and Ebonyi came out of Anambra, with Abia out of Imo, Cross River had Akwa Ibom with Bendel split into Edo and Delta. Borno had Taraba, Yobe and Gombe. Kebbi and Zamfara came out of Sokoto. Out of the ashes of the defunct Gongola came Adamawa and Taraba States. Nasarawa came out of Plateau State. These all make up the current 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

For anyone to become the president of Nigeria, such a person must win 25 per cent of the votes in 2/3 or 24 states of the 36 States of the country, according to the 1999 Constitution as amended.

What then are the chances of the four frontline Presidential candidates jostling to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who will serve out his term on May 29, 2023?

Sunday Telegraph in separate interviews with the ethnic nationalities and some prominent Nigerians x-rayed the chances of the four leading contenders – Peter Obi, Labour Party from the South East; Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), from Adamawa – North East; Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from South West and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) from Kano – Nor 3West.

To the National Publicity Secretary, Pan Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, Comrade Jare Ajayi, the 2023 polls are likely to be somewhat different from that of 1979.

He said: “The difference is going to be in how the major political parties perform in parts of the country and the factors that will be responsible for the performances.

“It would be recalled that in 1979, the National Party of Nigeria, NPN, made a good showing in the North and the South-South as well as South East while the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, dominated the South West and recorded some recognitions in parts of the north and the South-South. Other parties recorded marginal successes.

“The major reason behind the superior success of the NPN over others particularly in the South was due largely to the stature of the party’s Vice Presidential Candidate then, Dr. Alex Ekwueme. Although many may prefer to play it down, the mistrust that the Igbo had (and perhaps still have) for the Yoruba also played a role.

“The choice of Chief Phillip Umeadi as Vice Presidential candidate by Chief Obafemi Awolowo was a mistake because it was inconceivable that the North would accept not to be in the Executive Office as number one or number two. This played a big role in the outcome of the election in addition to the factor mentioned earlier – the mistrust that the South East nurses for the South West.”

He continued: “In 2023, the outcome of the Presidential Election is likely to be markedly different. The major reasons for this are: “One, the choice of vice presidential candidates by the Presidential candidates of the major political parties will play a role. It’s a known fact that the choice of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State by the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, has not only been generating rancour in his party, indications are that it may affect the electoral fortune of the party’s Presidential candidate, especially in the South South. It is not unlikely that a similar thing may happen in the South East going by the present inclinations of two governors in that region, Governors David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma.

“The choice of Senator Kashim Shettima from the North East by the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is likely to have a positive impact on the electoral fortune of the party in the North, particularly north east and north central.

“Shettima’s name on the ballot will definitely reduce the votes that Atiku Abubakar would have garnered. The same way that Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party will affect the electoral fortunes of PDP in the South East – a region that traditionally ‘belonged’ to the conservatives represented in this case by the PDP.

“Peter Obi’s Labour Party will make a show in parts of the South East, a little in the South South and Lagos. It will also literally ‘mark the register’ in a part of the North, notably Kano, because of the Vice Presidential Candidate, Ahmed Datti. But not enough to upset the apple cart substantially. The participation of former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso in the election will also whittle down the votes of the other candidates. But it would not be enough to get Kwankwaso into Aso Rock.

“In summary, the reputations that both Atiku and Tinubu have across the country, Governor Wike’s factor in PDP and the choices of Vice Presidential candidates are going to play major roles in the outcome of the 2023 Presidential Election.”

Winner must transcend regional support – Ohanaeze

The Ohanaeze Ndigbo, speaking through its spokesperson, Dr. Alex Chidozie Ogbonnia, said whoever must win in 2023 must garner votes from every region of the country as it may not necessarily follow the 1979 regional voting pattern.

He said that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, may likely spring a surprise due to the geometric growth of his support base across the country.

The Ohanaeze chieftain said: “I’m aware of three major candidates. Number one is Peter Obi; number two is Atiku Abubakar and number three is Ahmed Tinubu. Every other one is playing in the gallery.”

“Nigerians are wiser now; the 1979 scenario was a purely ethnic formation as presidential candidates where you had Zik for Igbo; Waziri (Ibrahim) for North East; Aminu Kano for North West and Awolowo for South West. Aminu Kano was able to capture Kaduna and Kano. Shagari now belonged to NPN which was more widespread. So, what we are hoping is that Aminu Kano will not replicate itself in Kwankwaso. That’s how it is.

“There will be a winner in the first ballot, who will garner votes across the country. From the momentum Peter Obi of the Labour Party is going with, it shows that every other day, it’s on the increase. He started with no structure. They said structureless but every other day, we are seeing an increase. So, if it continues in the radical increase, that is geometric progression, you’ll discover that before February next year, every person may have become Obidient.

“That is Ohanaeze’s aspiration and expectation. And to do that, we tap our confidence in the belief in God, in equity, justice and fairness. Everything, broken leaves after fluttering in the air must obey the law of gravity, it’s a natural phenomenon”.

2023 won’t be sectional votes, says PANDEF

Also towing the same line, National Publicity Secretary, Pan Nigeria Delta Forum (PANDEF) Ken Robinson, said: “The 2023 election is not going to be a sectional vote. Yes, to some extent, it won’t be so. Politics is about interest.

“The Vice presidential candidate of PDP is from the South – South and the vice presidential candidate for APC is from the North East and the vice presidential candidate for Labour Party is from the North West.

“So, politics is about interest but the problem we have in Nigeria will always be protection of their personal interest against the national interest and that is why we have conflict.

“And that is why we always tell them that the conflict we have in this country is as a result of poor management of interest.

So in 2023, Nigerians will vote according to interest and for us in PANDEF, we are saying that the national interest and what will keep Nigeria United, to prosper and be stable should be the overriding interest and not usually sectional interest.

“And we are using this opportunity again to say that after eight years of a northern president, the next president should come from the south and that has been the position of PANDEF.”

Also weighing in on the matter, one – time governor, old Anambra State, Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, said that the circumstances are not the same, contending that the politics of the 2023 Presidential election has gone beyond the primordial sentiments of ethnicity.

He said: “A child that was born and grew up in 1979 cannot share similar experience and background with that born in the twenties.

“Today, people’s dispositions and world view have changed and the orientations cannot be the same.

“Today, the support base has changed because when you look at the candidacy of the Labour Party Presidential Candidate Mr. Peter Obi, you see that his acceptability in the North and the South West is monumental.

“Yes, elections in the past have been decided along ethnic or geographic colorations but not in this dispensation.

“One can predict a stiff battle among the four of them but at the end we shall have a straight winner and not as it used to be.” (Sunday Telegraph)