The huge disparity between kidnapping figures in northern and southern Nigeria is largely driven by the nature of the groups operating in both regions, a report by SBM Intelligence has said.

According to the 2026 edition of its Economics of Nigeria’s Kidnap Industry report, syndicated bandit and jihadist groups in the North have the capacity to field sizeable militias, occupy vast rural areas and operate in territories where government presence is limited.

The report noted that geography also gives the groups an advantage, with the northern landmass roughly four times the size of the South.

It said much of the North consists of open terrain where a single raid could result in the abduction of dozens of people.

According to SBM, victims are often taken to forest camps, where some are allegedly forced to work in ventures controlled by the abductors, including farming and artisanal mining.

“This means that abduction becomes a source of labour as well as ransom,” the report said.

It added that the sparsely populated nature of the region also stretched the security presence, making policing difficult and anti-kidnapping operations more complex.

SBM said kidnapping remained deadly for virtually all those involved, with civilians accounting for 895, or 78.3 per cent, of the 1,142 deaths recorded during the period under review.

The report said 179 kidnappers were killed, while 68 security personnel, including military personnel, police officers and vigilantes, also lost their lives.

It noted that most of the fatalities were recorded in the North, with the North-West recording the highest number of deaths.

The South-South, however, appeared to have recorded greater success in confronting kidnappers, with security operations killing 38 suspected kidnappers during the period, second only to the North-West, which recorded 79.

The report said 302 anti-kidnap operations were recorded nationwide during the period, with significant variations across states.

Benue and Katsina recorded 26 and 25 operations respectively, while Edo recorded 25, Kaduna 24, and Delta and Plateau 23 each.

SBM said two of the states with the highest number of operations were in the South-South, where 50 operations resulted in the deaths of 38 kidnappers despite the region recording a comparatively lower number of kidnapping incidents.

It said the figures suggested that police commands, hunters and vigilante networks in the South-South appeared more willing and capable of taking the fight to kidnappers than their counterparts in the worst-hit northern states.

Zamfara, which recorded the highest number of kidnapping incidents, victims and civilian deaths nationwide, conducted only four anti-kidnap operations throughout the year.

According to the report, the disparity between the scale of the kidnapping crisis and security operations in Zamfara pointed to a security response that had been overwhelmed by the scale and capabilities of the armed groups.

In Benue, security forces conducted 26 operations in response to 32 reported kidnapping incidents.

However, the report noted that 145 people were abducted in the state, an average of 4.5 victims per incident, suggesting that kidnappers continued to operate effectively despite the security response.

SBM linked the situation in Benue and neighbouring Plateau to the long-running conflict between farming communities and Fulani pastoralists.

It said kidnapping, alongside large-scale attacks, had become a tool of displacement in the affected communities.

“While security forces manage smaller-scale incidents, they routinely fail to prevent the organised, community-wide attacks driving mass displacement,” the report said.

Six states — Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Gombe, Jigawa and Osun — recorded no anti-kidnap operations during the period under review.

SBM said the absence of operations in Bayelsa, Jigawa and Osun was unsurprising because of their relatively low kidnapping figures.

Gombe, however, was described as a major anomaly.

The state recorded a sharp increase from two kidnapping incidents and one death in the 2024/2025 cycle to nine incidents, 22 abductions and 14 deaths in the latest reporting period.

The 22 abductions represented a 1,000 per cent increase, while deaths rose by 1,300 per cent.

SBM said Gombe’s location among states facing severe insecurity made its previous low crime figures potentially unsustainable.

It warned that the absence of recorded anti-kidnap operations amid the recent surge could indicate under-reporting of security responses or a critical gap in operational coverage as the state’s previous security buffer weakens.

(Vanguard)