Concerns are mounting across Nigeria over what observers have described as a growing wave of political intolerance ahead of the 2027 general election.

Reports from several states indicate increasing efforts of sponsored hoodlums, desperate politicians and agents of the ruling party to frustrate the activities of opponents, groups and politicians.

With the 2027 general election less than a year away, the situation has heightened anxiety in the polity raising fears over the credibility of the electoral process.

The situation Is particularly more pronounced in recent times. In states such as Lagos, Rivers, Imo, Oyo, Cross River, and Akwa Ibom, opposition parties and politicians have alleged systematic attempts to disrupt their operations.

In recent months, the media have been awash with reports of disruption of meetings, denial of access to public venues, and, in some cases, intimidation of opposition party members.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has consistently denied claims that it was part of the attacks on opposition politicians and groups, arguing that its members were also attacked in some states in the last few months.

In February, the 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi and a top figure of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), John Odigie-Oyegun, escaped an alleged assassination attack by hoodlums in Benin City, the Edo State capital.

The armed hoodlums shot at Obi and Oyegun, as well as members of the Obidient Movement, while they were moving to Oyegun’s residence from the ADC secretariat in Edo State.

The politicians had attended the party’s rally organised to formally receive former Edo State governorship candidate Olumide Akpata from the Labour Party into the ADC.

According to Obi’s former campaign spokesman and National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, Yunusa Tanko, it was a narrow escape for Obi, Oyegun and the other politicians in the group that day.

“They shot at the gate and destroyed several vehicles in what appears to be a survived assassination attempt on our lives. Democracy is in danger,” Tanko said.

Photos and videos circulated by Tanko reportedly showed bullet-riddled gates and several SUV windscreens smashed during the attacks.

Speaking with journalists after the attack on his residence, Odigie-Oyegun warned that those behind the attacks were “playing with fire”, and that the consequences could be terrible.

“I am afraid that our leaders, both at the centre and in this state, are playing with fire. The consequences could be terrible. Much more than any of you expect,” Oyegun stated while reacting to the incident.

Observers have said that despite the seriousness of the attack and the personalities being targeted, the Federal Government did not treat it as an emergency.

Similarly, some days ago, a City Boy Movement empowerment rally was disrupted in Owerri, capital of Imo State, when participants and some locals stormed the venue.

The disruption reportedly triggered a stampede and looting of items meant for distribution to youths across the south-east.

A statement issued in Abuja by Francis Shoga, the movement’s director-general, confirmed the disruption at the rally, adding that it was swiftly brought under control, with no fatalities or missing persons recorded.

Early this year, unidentified hoodlums disrupted a defection ceremony organised to formally welcome former Labour Party (LP) members into the ADC in Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos State

The hoodlums, reportedly numbering over 100, stormed the first venue of the event at the LP office in the Idimu area of the state and sent members, including officials, running for their dear lives.

The hoodlums, who reportedly wielded different kinds of weapons, including knives and canes, allegedly manhandled those they caught while the mayhem lasted.

It was gathered that some party members sustained varying degrees of injuries during the attack.

Last week, suspected hoodlums disrupted a meeting of the ADC in Bakassi Local Government Area of Cross River State, pulling down canopies, chairs, and sound equipment at the venue.

Video clips circulating on Facebook captured the chaotic scene as youths stormed the event venue and scattered the gathering shortly before the meeting commenced. The ADC reportedly organised the event as part of its activities in the area.

In one of the videos, a voice was heard shouting: “What is going on in our Bakassi, scatter everywhere. We don’t want any (other) party here apart from the APC in Bakassi. Come on, scatter everywhere.”

In the first month of March, unknown assailants set ablaze the ADC office in Ubima, Ikwerre Local Government Area, Rivers State. The fire destroyed part of the building, and created panic among residents.

It was the day Rotimi Amaechi, former Rivers State governor and ex-minister of Transportation, was officially joining the ADC at Ward 8 in Ubima.

Olalekan Abdulmojeed Anjolaiya, a chieftain of the ADC, reacting to the attacks, said: “Political participation, including the decision to decamp from one political party to another, is a lawful and democratic process that must be respected and protected by all state institutions.

“The use of violence, intimidation, and state apparatus to stifle political choice undermines our democracy and sets a dangerous precedent.”

According to him, Nigeria must not degenerate into a system where citizens are attacked for exercising their political rights while law enforcement agencies either look there way or act in ways that threaten peace and public order.

Ajibola Oduwole, a constitutional lawyer, told BusinessDay that politicians from the ruling and opposition parties were been attacked, noting that authorities must wake up and take action against those perpetrating violence.

“It is not only opposition people that are attacked, City Boy programme was disrupted in Imo State recently,” he said.

Political analysts have warned that such actions, if unchecked, could erode democratic norms and create an uneven playing field.

According to civil society groups, the denial of public facilities for rallies and gatherings undermines the fundamental rights of political participation and freedom of association.

The situation, observers note, bears similarities to incidents recorded during the 2023 Nigerian general election, where tensions and clashes between rival party supporters were reported in parts of the country, including Lagos.

Many Nigerians fear a repeat or escalation of such occurrences if urgent steps are not taken.

ADC’s council chairmen in Lagos State, lamented in a media briefing that it has become increasingly difficult for party members to hold meetings and carry out political activities across different local government areas because of coordinated attacks.

Ugochukwu Anaere, the head of ADC’s LGA chairmen in the state, who spoke on behalf of his colleagues, said that there were reports of targeted attacks by party members across Lagos, with security agencies appearing helpless.

“We have escalated these to the party hierarchy and the law enforcement agencies, particularly the Nigeria Police Force and the Department of State Services (DSS). Regrettably, these threats and attacks appear intractable,” the party chieftain said.

Speaking in an interview with BusinessDay, Ladipo Johnson, national publicity secretary of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), said it was unfortunate that political intolerance is on the increase in the country, stressing that the ruling party the APC should take the blame.

“The rhetoric coming from leaders of the ruling party at various times have only emboldened a lot of these miscreants and political thugs that we have in society,” Ladipo said.

“Some of them believe they can operate with the protection of the government. If things continue this way, then it will not bode well for the 2027 election,” he said.

But a chieftain of the APC in Lagos denied reports that the party was aware of hoodlums or thugs attacking opposition politicians or parties.

The politician who did not want his name in print told BusinessDay that the leadership of the party at the state or national level would not sponsor violence or any party, noting that most of the attacks could be pertuated by political politicians against their opponents.

“Most of the attacks you are talking about are carried out by politicians against their opponents and people would naturally blame it on us, but it is not true. Our party is not violence prone and would never tolerate such”, he said.

Thus as political activities gradually intensify ahead of the general election, citizens and advocacy groups continue to urge political leaders to promote tolerance, dialogue, and peaceful engagement in the interest of national stability.

Utomi-led group to recruit “vote marshals” from retired military, police to check attacks in polling units

Meanwhile, ahead of the 2027 polls, the Movement for Credible Elections (MCE) warned that Nigeria’s democracy could be in danger if urgent steps are not taken to safeguard the electoral process.

Pat Utomi, a political economist and leader of the group, said this in Lagos.

He disclosed plans to recruit and train “vote marshals,” drawn largely from retired military and police personnel, who would be deployed to polling stations across the country to help safeguard the voting process.

He said they would check attacks on Nigerians and political stakeholders and safeguard votes of Nigerians during the 2027 polls.

“We plan to recruit vote marshals who shall be former military and police personnel, who will be trained and deployed to every polling station in the country,” Utomi said.

He warned that continued erosion of confidence in the ballot could push citizens toward alternative and potentially dangerous forms of political expression.

The MCE leader said civil society groups would mobilise to resist any attempt to compromise the electoral process and would challenge perceived abuses both in the court of public opinion and through legal channels

Utomi outlined a series of initiatives the group plans to implement to promote credible elections.

These include establishing independent result verification platforms similar to the INEC Result Viewing portal (IReV), where party agents would upload photographed copies of Form EC8A immediately after results are signed at polling units.

He also appealed to elder statesmen, traditional rulers, and religious leaders to speak out in defence of democratic norms and help prevent a deterioration of Nigeria’s political environment.

Warning against a repeat of the political tensions experienced during the military era, Utomi urged Nigerians to remain vigilant and committed to defending democratic values through lawful and non-violent means.

“The people must stand up now to save the future for their children,” he said.

Analysts warn of threat to democracy over attacks

Political analysts have expressed deep concern about the escalating attacks on political actors, describing the trend as a calculated attempt to stifle opposition voices and intimidate political actors.

They warned that such actions, if unchecked, could undermine democratic principles and weaken the country’s commitment to free and fair political competition.

Segun Olawunmi, a political analyst, said the pattern of harassment, disruption of political activities, and alleged violence against opposition figures is a dangerous development for Nigeria’s democracy.

The analyst noted that democracy thrives on the presence of diverse opinions, open political participation, and the protection of fundamental rights, all of which are threatened when opposition voices are suppressed.

Other analysts argued that the situation reflects a broader risk to Nigeria’s democratic consolidation, especially as the country approaches the 2027 general elections.

“Sustained intimidation of opposition members could discourage participation in the political process, reduce voter confidence, and ultimately erode public trust in democratic institutions,” Tope Musowo, a public policy expert, said.

The analyst also expressed concern over the apparent inability of security agencies to promptly identify, arrest, and prosecute those responsible for these attacks.

According to him, the current situation raises serious questions about the capacity and neutrality of law enforcement agencies in maintaining peace and order during political activities.

“The failure to hold perpetrators accountable, they warned, could embolden further acts of political violence and lawlessness,” Musowo added. (BusinessDay)