“Politics is the soil in which the nettle of poisonous enmity, evil suspicions, shameless lies, slander, morbid ambitions, and disrespect for the individual grows rapidly and luxuriantly. Name anything bad in man and it is precisely in the soil of political struggle that it grows with particular liveliness and abundance.”

The above quote by the late Maxim Gorky, a Russian-Soviet writer and one of the proponents of Socialism, appears apt in situating the current narratives with regards to the alleged moves by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and those around him, to have a Christian as his running mate in the 2027 presidential election.

Although President Tinubu is yet to officially declare his bid for a re-election, let alone settle for a running mate, the media is already saturated with varying positions for and against the moves.

Among those already touted as possible replacements are: Catholic Bishop of Sokoto, Matthew Hassan Kukah, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon Yakubu Dogara and Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen Christopher Musa.

But barely 48 hours after the report, a group, The National Political Study Group, warned detractors not to distract President Tinubu by bringing to the front burner any nomination politics ahead of 2027.

The group, In a statement by its leader, Emmanuel Aro, dismissed speculations that the president is under pressure over the choice of running mate for the next year’s presidential election. This is just as a presidency source was quoted to have said the president is focussed on his mandate and addressing what he described as a wrong perception that Christians are being singled out for attacks across the country, adding that efforts to correct the narrative were beginning to yield positive results.

Aro, who spoke in Lagos, noted that although legitimate scheming by politicians have started, the president is not somebody who can be intimidated, manipulated and pushed around by those nursing ambition for relevance.

Like Aro, the presidential source who was reacting to reports which claimed that President Tinubu was under pressure to field a Christian running mate in 2027, instead of retaining the Muslim-Muslim ticket, further said “Look, we are aware that some persons want the VP replaced. Initially, they wanted a fellow Muslim to replace him. But now that they have seen that the arrangement is not flying, they want to latch on the US sentiment to push their new agenda of having a Christian running mate. But I can tell you for free that it will not work.

“Any APC person plotting that does not mean well for Mr. President and our party. Tampering with the ticket as it is will do us more harm than good in the North, especially if ADC eventually sticks by its original plan to field a northern candidate. If it is about winning strategy, we are better the way we are because replacing Shettima with a Christian may affect our chance in the entire Northeast and votes from some critical states in the North.

“The US angle to the story is all hoax. The US posturing is changing already. Besides, are we no longer believers? If we run with a Christian candidate and God does not want us, if the US like, let them put everything they have into it, it will still not work. So, we should stop playing God.

“Our President is smart and strategic. He has not told us he wants to replace Shettima. We are aware, like you said that some of the presidential aides, in some of their conversations appear to be buying into the idea of having a Christian run with Tinubu. But the truth is those doing that are majorly Christians. Therefore, I can understand their sentiments. However, on Shettima’s birthday, when Mr. President released what looked like a ‘shut your mouth’ statement.”

It would be recalled that President Tinubu had during the vice president’s 59th birthday, in September last year, described him as loyal deputy, declaring that his choice as his running mate in 2023 was never a mistake.

President Tinubu had said: “The birthday presented another unique opportunity to celebrate you, my brother, co-traveller and Vice President, as you mark another birthday.

“Since we embarked on this journey, united by the shared vision of building a more prosperous nation, your courage, sense of duty, tenacity, determination, and belief in Nigeria’s greatness have remained unshaken.

“You served the people of Borno, your home state, excellently as Governor for eight years and later as Senator representing Borno Central in the National Assembly. In both roles, you showed that leadership is service, not privilege, even in the face of immense challenges.

“However, your service to Nigeria, fueled by your passion for democracy, good governance, and economic development, has been even more remarkable.

“I deeply appreciate your vibrancy, loyalty, partnership, and support as my deputy. In choosing you then as a partner, I selected competence and other qualities that Nigeria could depend on.

“Every day, as Vice President, you have justified that choice by strengthening our work, bringing fresh perspectives, and upholding our commitment to Nigerians. Your dedication reassures me that I did not make a mistake in choosing you as my deputy.

“Together, we have begun to lay the foundations of the Renewed Hope Agenda. From securing new global partnerships across the Atlantic to driving food security and investment reforms at home, your partnership has been integral to our success.

“In the months ahead, as we unlock new trade corridors and deliver more schools, hospitals, and jobs, our partnership will continue to yield results that Nigerians can see and feel. We must continue to work towards the full realisation of the Renewed Hope Agenda, which will foster prosperity in the country and enhance the living standards of our people.

“Our relationship transcends official duties. It is a bridge across regions and traditions, united in purpose and service. You remind us of what is possible when Nigeria comes first — an example worthy of emulation by those who aspire to lead.”

Weighing in on the matter, the APC North-Central Forum has equally rejected the alleged move to drop Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate ahead of the 2027. The group, which noted that Muslim-Muslim ticket gave the party the victory in 2023, further warned that any attempt to do otherwise would amount to a costly political miscalculation.

In a statement issued in Abuja by the chairman of the Forum, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, also said that the North-Central is not angling for the vice-presidential slot, saying that the region is focused on contesting the presidency in 2031, after Tinubu’s tenure.

It equally cautioned against introducing religious sentiment into political calculations, insisting that the North as it is today, lacks a Christian candidate with sufficient grassroots support, national appeal and political structure to complement Tinubu’s electoral strength as a running mate. The group further argued that jettisoning the party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket would only fortify the opposition in 2027.

Analysing voting the patterns in the North, the APC North-Central Forum claimed that Tinubu would not gain new votes by replacing Shettima. Rather, it cautioned that replacing Shettima on religious grounds would lead to a loss of support and votes in the North, adding that “if the opposition coalition backed by the African Democratic Congress fields Peter Obi as its presidential candidate, replacing Shettima would make no strategic difference, as many minorities in the North would still vote for Obi regardless of Tinubu’s running mate.

“If you check, you will notice that in 2023, most of their communities voted for Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Now if Peter Obi comes out again in 2027 on the platform of the ADC, what is the guarantee they will vote for Tinubu even if he drops Shettima and replaces him with a Christian? That is not going to happen. What is likely is that Tinubu will lose support among core northerners, thereby reducing his votes and giving the advantage to Peter Obi. Basic political calculation shows that dropping Shettima makes no sense and is actually very dangerous,” the group added.

Dismissing suggestions that foreign powers, including the United States and other Western countries, might pressure Nigeria to abandon the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027, the group said “there is serious danger in changing a winning ticket. We totally and unequivocally reject calls and plans to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima as President Bola Tinubu’s running mate in the next election.

“We sincerely advise President Bola Tinubu and the leaders of the party not to listen to such calls, because such a decision will turn out to be a grievous political miscalculation,” the forum stated.

The Forum further accused those behind the agitation of acting against the interests of the party and the president. “They do not want to see President Bola Tinubu re-elected. That is the only reason anybody with political knowledge would make such a request. The Muslim-Muslim ticket gave us victory in 2023. Nigeria is an independent nation, and nobody is going to dictate to us,” the group said.

Daily Sun’s investigations revealed that 2023 was not the first time the APC would moot the idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket before it became a reality.

In the run up to the 2015 election, Tinubu left no one in doubt that he was desirous of running with Buhari. It was gathered that Buhari, at the time, had also conceded to Tinubu before some powerful forces in the party at the time, including former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki, frustrated the plot.

Saraki would later lend credence to this fact in April 2016, when he tried to explain why Tinubu was after him. He said: “… I have also been accused of helping frustrate some people’s opportunity to emerge as president Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate. But I have no problem with anybody. My concern was that it would not be politically smart of us to run with a Muslim-Muslim ticket.

“I doubt if we would have won the election if we had done this, especially after the PDP had successfully framed us as a Muslim party. I felt we were no longer in 1993. Perhaps, more than ever before, Nigerians are more sensitive to issues of religious balancing. This, my brother, was my original sin. What they say to themselves, among other things, was that if he could conspire against our ambition, then, he must not realise his own ambition as well. For me, however, I have no regrets about this. I only stood for what I believed was in the best interest of the party and in the best interest of Nigeria.”

Tinubu also later confirmed what had long been dubbed mere speculation when he revealed that Saraki and the former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, worked against Buhari’s plan to make him his running mate, in the run-up to the 2015 presidential contest.

Tinubu, in the book “Against the Run of Play,” written by the Chairman, Editorial Board of ThisDay, Olusegun Adeniyi, said Saraki, El-Rufai and other senior members of the PDP, who ’oined the APC, in the build-up to the 2015 general elections, were the ones who instigated Buhari and some APC chieftains not to pick him as running mate.

He said: “What they (Saraki and others from the PDP) did behind my back was wrong. We always do things as a group. By the time they joined, we were already too far ahead in our processes, but we accommodated them.

“We agreed to take their state structures and subsume them into the party and they all had their opportunity to nominate the candidates of their choices for different political offices. But they went behind to instigate Buhari and some other people in the party against me on the pretext of religion. That was not right. They were canvassing arguments that the Christians in the North would not vote for a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Nasir El-Rufai was also selling the same argument within the CPC (the defunct Congress for Progressive Change) because, at that point, he still wanted to have Pastor (Tunde) Bakare brought in as Buhari’s running mate.”

So far, since 1979 to date, there has always been moves to replace the sitting vice president when the president is seeking a re-election. None of such moves ever succeeded. Will 2027 be different? It seems only time will tell. For now, however, Tinubu and his team would have to return to the drawing board. And the team’s handling of the Shettima’s issue would go a long way to make or break the president’s chances in next year’s presidential contest. (The Sun)