Nigeria’s armed forces have suffered 454 soldier fatalities in ambushes between 2019 and 2025, a new security report has revealed, warning that insurgent and bandit groups have evolved into a highly coordinated network capable of targeting even senior military commanders.

The report, titled The Kill Zone, describes the period as one defined by “a persistent and deadly campaign of ambushes” against security forces across the country.

Published by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused geopolitical research and consulting firm, the document shows that the military is now engaged in what it calls “a protracted war of attrition”, with insurgents increasingly focusing on high-value officers, attacking forward bases, and deploying drones and explosive devices with growing efficiency.

According to the report, Boko Haram (JAS), the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and armed bandit groups carried out most of the attacks, with Borno State accounting for more than 60% of recorded ambushes.

“The primary perpetrators were Boko Haram (JAS)… and ISWAP, alongside highly active bandit groups,” SBM Intelligence wrote, noting a “worrying geographic spread of violence” from the Northeast to the Northwest and parts of the South.

“Their operations have expanded to include isolating the Nigerian military’s ‘supercamps’… by destroying key infrastructure such as bridges and roads,” the report states.

The insurgents are now deliberately targeting senior officers. Notable cases include: Brigadier-General Dzarma Zirkusu, killed in an ISWAP ambush near Askira Uba in 2021, a Major and several personnel killed in Munya, Niger State, in 2023 and Brigadier-General Uba, ambushed and killed in Damboa, Borno, in November 2025.

Beyond the Northeast, the Northwest has emerged as a major battleground. Bandits, the report notes, have developed “a calculated approach” to ambushes, in which one group attacks a location specifically to lure security reinforcements into a second ambush. An example is the March 2023 massacre of 51 vigilantes in Zamfara’s Maru LGA, the report noted.

Military stretched thin, morale low

Despite the scale of the threat, SBM Intelligence says the military remains overstretched, under-equipped, and hampered by intelligence failures.

The armed forces “grapple with inadequate equipment… morale is frequently low,” and corruption has weakened operations, the report states. It highlights chronic shortages of mine-resistant vehicles, delayed troop rotations, and welfare challenges affecting operational effectiveness.

The report also warns that the collapse of regional cooperation, including Niger’s withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force, has created “operational vacuums along Nigeria’s borders” now exploited by both terrorists and criminal networks.

SBM Intelligence concludes that Nigeria must urgently overhaul its counterinsurgency strategy. It recommends better intelligence gathering, stronger protection for patrol units, structured collaboration with local defence groups, and a revival of regional security partnerships.

“With the trajectory of violence deeply concerning,” the report warns, “a fundamental strategic review is necessary to counter the evolving tactics of militant groups and stem the significant losses undermining Nigeria’s security and stability.” (BUSINESS DAY)