• CPPE warns of capital flight; Oxford Economics tempers concerns

• Security chiefs meet as FG dismisses Trump’s claim, cites flawed U.S. intel

• Chad shuts border with Nigeria over security fears, rumours of U.S. troop movement

• EFCC defends silence on terror financiers, says law restricts disclosure

• Obi urges diplomacy over Trump’s threat, condemns rising insecurity

• Wike accuses opposition of fuelling false narrative, says ‘it’s about stopping Tinubu’s return to power’

The threat of military action against Nigeria by U.S. President Donald Trump has sparked economic anxiety, with the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) warning of investor flight, while Oxford Economics offers cautious reassurance, noting oil exports remain secure despite potential risks to American aid.

Trump, late on Saturday, indicated the U.S. military was being prepared to “act in Nigeria to tackle Islamist militancy.” In an explosive social media post, the Republican leader said he had asked the Pentagon to map out a possible plan of attack, threatening to send the military into Nigeria with “guns-a-blazing” if the country does not stem what he described as the killing of Christians by Islamists.

CPPE maintained that the threat could have serious economic and reputational consequences for the country.

In a policy brief released yesterday, CPPE Director, Dr Muda Yusuf, said even a speculative threat from a global superpower had already shaken investor confidence and tainted Nigeria’s image as a stable destination for foreign investment.

“The statement, though based on incomplete intelligence and misjudged assumptions, carries significant implications simply because of its source: the President of the United States,” Yusuf stated.

The report said Nigeria’s security challenges are “complex, multifaceted, and asymmetrical,” and do not amount to a conventional war that would justify any form of foreign military intervention. It noted that victims of insecurity cut across religious and ethnic lines, stressing that any suggestion of government complicity was “grossly misleading and unfair.”

The CPPE warned that Trump’s rhetoric could trigger capital flight, falling stock values, rising country risk ratings, and a weaker Naira. It added that investors could adopt a cautious stance, leading to delays or cancellations of major projects and increased borrowing costs.

To cushion the impact, the centre recommended immediate diplomatic engagement with the U.S. government to de-escalate tensions and strengthen partnerships on intelligence and counterterrorism. It also urged Nigeria to intensify governance and macroeconomic reforms to reinforce investor confidence.

Describing Trump’s comments as “unwarranted, counterproductive, and economically destabilising,” the CPPE maintained that the constructive path forward lies in diplomacy, partnership, and respect for sovereignty, rather than coercive measures that could harm Nigeria’s economy and regional stability.

HOWEVER, Oxford Economics stated that it remains uncertain how Trump’s threat of military action against Nigeria will affect economic relations between Abuja and Washington, noting that the trade impact may be limited for now.

In an analysis released yesterday, the firm noted that the U.S. ranked as Nigeria’s sixth-largest export destination in the second quarter of 2025, with exports valued at N1.4 trillion during the period. Although Trump recently raised Nigeria’s import tariff by one percentage point to 15 per cent, Oxford Economics said the effective rate was lower due to the exemption of crude oil, which accounted for nearly 68 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. in that quarter.

Overall, exports to the U.S. made up just six per cent of Nigeria’s total exports in the second quarter, while non-oil exports represented only 1.9 per cent.

On development aid, the report stated that the U.S. disbursed more than $1 billion in foreign assistance to Nigeria during its 2023 fiscal year. The Nigerian government has also earmarked an additional $200 million for healthcare, while the U.S. approved $32.5 million in September to tackle hunger by providing food assistance and nutritional support to internally displaced persons in conflict-affected areas.

From an economic standpoint, Oxford Economics said it was “not too concerned” about Trump’s statements at this stage. The firm observed that energy-exporting countries, such as Nigeria, could more easily find alternative buyers for their products if U.S. demand weakens.

It added that a total ban on Nigerian oil imports by the U.S. appeared unlikely, as China and India would remain ready buyers due to their need to offset reduced access to Russian oil.

Oxford Economics further highlighted that Nigerian oil exports to the U.S. had benefited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with AGOA exports representing 5.5 per cent of total exports in 2022. However, it noted that Trump’s tariff policy had “effectively left AGOA dead in the water,” as the U.S. administration continues to weigh whether to renew the trade pact, which officially expired on September 30.

The analysis warned that even if AGOA were reinstated, several countries could be excluded due to political differences with Washington, including Nigeria, should it fail to demonstrate sufficient progress in addressing insecurity to the satisfaction of the Trump administration.

Security chiefs meet as FG dismisses Trump’s claim, cites flawed U.S. intelligence

MEANWHILE, National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu convened an emergency meeting with service chiefs and heads of security and intelligence agencies yesterday, following the directive from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting possible military action in Nigeria.

The meeting was held at the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) in Abuja to assess the implications of Trump’s statements, which accused the Nigerian government of failing to protect Christians from Islamist militant groups.

According to a security source, the session, which began at noon, was called to coordinate a unified national security response and review intelligence assessments on the potential fallout from the U.S. president’s pronouncement.

THIS came as the Federal Government faulted Trump’s claim that Nigeria is experiencing a “Christian genocide,” describing it as another instance of flawed American intelligence and an attempt to distort the country’s complex security reality.

Speaking yesterday at the October edition of the Joint Security Press Briefing (JSPB) in Abuja, the Director-General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Lanre Issa-Onilu, said the allegation by the U.S. President misrepresents the facts and ignores evidence of steady improvements in Nigeria’s internal security operations.

Issa-Onilu, addressing journalists alongside security and anti-corruption agencies, said it was disappointing that such rhetoric was being amplified by the same quarters that once praised Nigeria’s counter-terrorism progress. He appealed to Nigerians not to rely on politically motivated foreign narratives about the country’s internal affairs.

“I’m sure even America knows that it’s not true. This is not the first time that the intelligence of the United States has failed America. It failed them in Iraq. It told them that there was no weapon of mass destruction, and they apologised. It failed them in Libya and many other instances. So, I’m sure this is another error in the intelligence category,” he said.

Issa-Onilu noted that October 2025 security data reflected tangible improvements in the country’s fight against insecurity. According to him, major arrests of terror-linked suspects rose by 33 per cent between September and October, while fatalities from violent crimes dropped by 12 per cent within the same period, an outcome he attributed to stronger coordination among the armed forces, police, and intelligence agencies.

Government records presented during the briefing showed that 56 major suspects were arrested in October compared with 42 in September, while 185 fatalities were recorded, down from 210 the previous month. The report also highlighted expanded collaboration among the military, the Department of State Services (DSS), and the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS), leading to faster interdictions and increased rescue operations of abducted victims across several states.

Issa-Onilu also cited the recent security leadership reshuffle by President Bola Tinubu as evidence of the administration’s seriousness in tackling insecurity.

“A country that is not working seriously on this issue of security will not take that drastic step that the President just took last week by changing the top echelons of the military, you know, to ensure that the system is rigid and empowered to be able to do more,” he said.

The NOA Director-General added that the United States itself had recently commended Nigeria for the performance of two senior NATO-aligned officers and had lifted previous restrictions on the sale of military equipment to the country, acknowledgements that contradict any suggestion of state-sponsored religious persecution.

“The same United States lifted the sanctions on the sales of weapons, and they have been selling weapons to the military. They only do that to countries that they believe are using the weapons responsibly,” he said.

Issa-Onilu emphasised that while Nigeria continues to experience violent crimes and terrorism, attributing such acts to religious motivations is misleading. He noted that most killings are rooted in territorial, economic, and criminal disputes rather than faith-based hostility.

“What we have in this country is a challenge of insecurity, of terrorists, of bandits, of kidnappers. And that’s what we are responding to,” he said, urging Nigerians to look beyond headlines and verify facts before accepting foreign claims.

“There were Libyans who thought they needed external support. Now they have the Libyans. There were Syrians who thought they needed external support. Now they have the Syrians. So we must be careful,” Issa-Onilu cautioned.

He therefore urged Nigerians to remain vigilant, verify information before sharing it, and collaborate with security agencies to maintain peace.

He reiterated that under President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda, coordination, accountability, and citizen trust remain central to national security.

“The government is working. Together, we build trust. Together we build peace. Together we build Nigeria,” he said.

On the anti-corruption front, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) presented a performance overview showing total recoveries of N566.3 billion and $411.6 million over two years.

The Commission stated that 1,502 properties were forfeited and that part of the recovered funds had been reinvested in the Students’ Loan Scheme and the Consumer Credit Scheme.

Responding to questions on terrorism financing, EFCC spokesperson Dele Oyewale, who represented the Chairman, Ola Olukoyede, clarified that the agency is legally restricted from disclosing the identities of suspected financiers.

“If you are conversant with the Terrorism Financing Act of 2022, you know what the law says. The law does not say that if we have been able to block funds that can be traced to terrorism, we should go ahead and say, okay, it is Chinedu, it is Emeka, it is Dele.

“Our job is to ensure that funds traced to any kind of terror activities are tracked, blocked, and made impossible for any terrorist activity to be consummated through such funds. But we might not be able to tell you who and who. The Act that empowers us to do that does not empower us to come with full identities,” Olukoyede explained.

He added that the EFCC remains committed to ensuring that recovered funds benefit rightful victims of fraud, state governments, and corporate entities through judicially approved processes.

Chad shuts border with Nigeria over security fears, rumours of US troop movement

IN another development, the Chadian Government has announced the immediate closure of its border with Nigeria amid heightened security concerns triggered by rumours of alleged movements of United States forces in parts of West Africa.

Military sources in N’Djamena confirmed yesterday that President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ordered a military lockdown on the Nigerian border after intelligence suggested that terrorist elements from northern Nigeria were planning to cross into Chad.

According to security analyst Zagazola Makama, Chadian troops and armoured vehicles have been deployed to strategic routes linking Nigeria, while all military units have been placed on full alert. President Déby reportedly warned that “no armed group or foreign force will be allowed to enter Chadian soil under any disguise.”

The border closure follows rising regional tension and speculation over possible U.S. military activities in the Sahel and other parts of West Africa.

Security experts say Chad’s move is a precautionary measure to protect its borders and prevent infiltration by militants seeking to exploit the region’s growing instability.

Obi urges diplomacy over Trump’s military threat, condemns rising insecurity

THE presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, has called for diplomatic engagement between Nigeria and the United States following U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments threatening possible military action against Nigeria over alleged religious persecution.

In a statement posted on his verified X account yesterday, Obi said the U.S. government’s designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC) and Trump’s accompanying remarks should worry every well-meaning Nigerian.

“The recent pronouncement by the U.S. government declaring Nigeria a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ and indicating possible military action should give every well-meaning Nigerian serious concern,” Obi stated.

He described the country’s security situation as “unprecedented,” citing figures from Amnesty International which suggest that more than 10,000 Nigerians have been killed since May 2023.

“There is no doubt that Nigeria is experiencing an unprecedented level of insecurity with attendant carnage and the most shocking loss of lives and property,” he said. “The unwarranted and unprovoked killing of Nigerians is most condemnable, and all efforts must be made to bring it to a stop.”

While noting that the current wave of insecurity did not begin under the present administration, the former Anambra State governor criticised the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government for what he described as a lack of competence, patriotism, and commitment to tackling the crisis.

“What is most unfortunate is the lack and absence of competence, commitment, prudent use of resources, patriotism and passion on the part of the APC-led government and its leaders to effectively govern and lead Nigeria,” Obi said.

He, however, cautioned against any form of U.S. military intervention, urging both countries to pursue dialogue and strengthen bilateral cooperation through diplomatic means.

Wike accuses opposition of fuelling false narrative on Christian killings

Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister and former Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, has accused the opposition of deliberately spreading claims that Christians are being targeted and killed in Nigeria, describing the move as “politics taken too far.”

Wike stressed that insecurity should not be politicised, adding: “I’m not Christian or Muslim, but I condemn the killing of innocent people. It’s about stopping Tinubu’s return to power, plain and simple. Nobody should play politics with people’s lives. Terrorism isn’t a conventional war; it’s a threat to our collective existence.”

He accused opposition elements of attempting to replicate tactics used during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. “They’re scheming again, using external forces to undermine President Tinubu’s government. When the Chibok girls were kidnapped, Tinubu wasn’t even in office,” he noted.

Speaking in Abuja yesterday, Wike said the allegation that the government is complicit in religiously motivated killings is unfounded and politically motivated.

“The Inspector-General of Police, the Chief of Defence, and the Secretary to the Government are all Christians. How can anyone suggest that our government is supporting the killing of its own people? Nobody wants to see people being killed,” he said.

Wike defended the government’s efforts to curb insecurity, insisting that no administration has invested as heavily as the present one in fighting terrorism.

He criticised U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on alleged religious persecution in Nigeria, questioning the credibility of the information that informed his statement. “Our president is not an extremist; he’s a family man who would never turn a blind eye to the killing of innocent people. This is clearly a ploy by the opposition to fuel a narrative that Christians are being targeted,” Wike said. (The Guardian)