The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may be grappling with widening cracks as fresh defections and mounting criticism from influential northern politicians raise fears of a looming repeat of the ‘Jonathan treatment’ in 2027.

Just recently, Kabiru Marafa, former Zamfara Central lawmaker and one-time coordinator of President Bola Tinubu’s campaign in the state, announced his resignation from the APC alongside his entire political structure across Zamfara’s 147 wards.

In a strongly-worded communiqué, Marafa accused the Tinubu administration of “sustained injustice, mistrust, marginalization and deliberate neglect of Zamfara State and its people.”

His supporters cited worsening insecurity in the state, noting that Zamfara accounted for 1,203 of the 4,722 kidnappings nationwide in 2024, including 25 villages attacked in one week, leading to 145 abductions and 21 deaths.

Despite these figures, they alleged that federal relief efforts had bypassed the state while being deployed elsewhere.

Marafa noted that his entire structure across all 147 wards in Zamfara State had quit the APC, underscoring the depth of the fallout.

Similarly, in Jigawa State, no fewer than 289 APC members defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Sakwaya Ward, Dutse Local Government Area.

Umar Danjani, PDP deputy state chairman, who received the defectors, hailed the development as ‘a significant boost’ to the opposition party ahead of the 2027 elections.

The defections appear to validate earlier warnings by Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, who, before quitting the APC, cautioned that Tinubu risked losing northern support just as former President Goodluck Jonathan did in 2015.

In a lengthy post entitled, ‘2027: South West, Tinubu’s supporters playing with fire – Part 1,’ El-Rufai warned that, “Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the North and President Bola Tinubu, or rather his administration, is quickly deteriorating…

“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the North and President Bola Tinubu, or rather his administration, is quickly deteriorating, driven by the words and conduct of, unfortunately, many from the president’s geopolitical zone and tribe. Truth be told.

“I have read and heard the arrogant posturing and braggadocio by some people whom I refer to as political rabble-rousers, but I get more worried each day as it keeps looking more and more like a movie we have seen before.”

He added, “May I remind some persons that, more than the performance or lack thereof of the President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan administration, it was his attitude, and that of people around him, towards the North that ultimately brought him down and, by extension, the PDP that had boasted that it would rule Nigeria for 60 years.”

“Love or loathe that fact, the North remains the kingmaker in Nigerian politics. Any politician or political party that plays with that reality might pay a steep political price for it,” El-Rufai emphasized.

Since defecting to the African Democratic Congress, El-Rufai has doubled down on his stance, repeatedly boasting that the North “will go to any length” to stop Tinubu’s re-election.

In June, Ali Ndume, a former Senate chief whip, also drew parallels with Jonathan’s downfall, warning that growing public discontent could cost Tinubu a second term.

“Tinubu could be given the Jonathan treatment because Jonathan also had 22 governors who endorsed him, like they are doing now. And what happened? Jonathan lost woefully,” Ndume said on Channels Television’s Politics Today.

The Borno South lawmaker cautioned against complacency within the APC, citing worsening economic hardship and ‘unrealistic’ presidential aides who, he claimed, shield Tinubu from the realities on the ground.

“My position is that the people who are supposed to help him are the ones deceiving him or damaging his image,” Ndume said. “I still believe the government is more or less dominated by kleptocrats and even kakistocrats.”

With defections spreading at the grassroots, analysts fear the APC could face the same North–South political rupture that unseated Jonathan in 2015.

Political analysts have described the latest wave of defections and criticism from northern heavyweights as ‘warning signs’ that the ruling APC may be heading toward an internal implosion if urgent steps are not taken.

Exits carry weight

Suleiman Bankole, a Political Science lecturer, said Marafa’s exit and that of Jigawa grassroots politicians from the APC carry more weight than ordinary defections.

“This is not just an individual leaving; it is an entire political structure across Zamfara State.”

“In the North-West, grassroots mobilization is everything. Losing a structure of that magnitude, coupled with insecurity concerns, exposes a deeper problem of disillusionment among APC supporters,” he emphasized.

He added that El-Rufai’s rhetoric should not be dismissed as empty threats.

“El-Rufai knows the power dynamics of the North. His warnings mirror the political history of Jonathan’s fall in 2015, and if APC continues to alienate its northern base, Tinubu may find himself walking the same path.”

Similarly, Lawal Ogunniyi, Lagos-based public affairs commentator, said Ndume’s comments reflect ‘internal frustrations’ within the party.

“When sitting APC lawmakers begin to openly talk about kleptocrats and kakistocrats around the president, it shows that the discontent is not only external but internal. This is how ruling parties begin to fracture from within,” he noted.

He warned that economic hardship could become the biggest weapon against the APC in 2027.

“Nigerians are not patient with government propaganda anymore. If the average person does not feel relief in the next two years, no amount of endorsements will save the APC at the ballot.”

Ogunniyi added that the defections should serve as a wake-up call for Tinubu.

Ogunniyi added, “The president’s biggest challenge now is not just governance, but political management.

“If he fails to hold his party together, APC risks going the way of the PDP in 2015.”

Felix Morka, national publicity secretary of the party, said he couldn’t comment on the issue. (BusinessDay)