Nigeria’s defence sector is grappling with capital scarcity, bureaucratic delays, and a chronic dependence on foreign suppliers, which threaten its ability to benefit from a worldwide boom.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said that global military expenditure hit $2.718 trillion in 2024, a 9.4 percent rise from 2023, which is the steepest jump since 1988.

This spending now accounts for about 2.5 percent of global GDP. In 2023, the total stood at $2.443 trillion, marking a 6.8 percent increase year-on-year, the sharpest rise since 2009.

Key defence powers such as the United States and China account for nearly half of this total. In Africa, North African nations dominate as Algeria spent $18 billion on defence in 2023, while Nigeria, despite being sub-Saharan Africa’s largest spender, allocated just $3.2 billion, underscoring a regional gap.

Christopher Musa, chief of Defence Staff, recently underscored the strategic stakes, saying, “It is Nigeria that everybody is interested in. That is why we need to secure fully and take control of our borders… It is critical for our survival and sovereignty.”

However, the operational challenges persist, “They make the troops go elsewhere, and when they get there, they meet nothing and allow the bandits to commit acts of criminality,” Musa said.

Some cases of kidnapping

The scale of Nigeria’s internal security crisis is hard to ignore, as a security report for the first half (H1) of 2025 shows there were 5,402 abductions nationwide, with Zamfara State alone accounting for 1,755 cases.

In June 2025, Boko Haram abducted Alphonsus Afina, a Catholic priest and former missionary in Alaska, during a convoy ambush in Borno State. One person was killed, and several were wounded, AP News reported.

In March 2025, Police rescued 20 hostages along the Takum–Mararaba road in Taraba State after a firefight. Two victims were injured. In Kano, Muhammad Yushau was abducted and later rescued unharmed. The police recovered N4.84 million ransom money and arrested multiple suspects.

Such persistent insecurity raises the cost of business, discourages investment, and channels a significant share of public funds toward reactive rather than developmental spending.

Five structural roadblocks to defence technology

Monsuru Anifowoshe, defence technology expert, warned that without state-backed reforms, Nigeria will remain dependent on imports for its security needs.

“Investors favour quicker-return sectors like fintech over long-term defence R&D.”

Anifowoshe noted that there is limited domestic procurement as the government is the main buyer but rarely awards contracts to local startups. He said there is also a trust deficit, as Nigeria has a preference for foreign-proven solutions over homegrown innovation.

There are also the import-driven business models, as local firms mostly resell foreign-made technology. Another roadblock, he said, is short-term capital flows. He said there is a lack of patient private capital for defence ventures without government contracts.

Anifowoshe called for a Turkey-style, demand-driven strategy, where the presidency sets a five–10-year target for indigenous defence capability. “Without decisive leadership and targeted investment, Nigeria will keep spending abroad for what we could build at home,” he said.

Rising defence budgets but modest global standing

Nigeria’s defence allocation has grown sharply in recent years. However, it still has a modest global standing. Defence budget proposed for 2025 stands at N4.91 trillion, a 27.5 percent jump from N3.25 trillion in 2024, which was 12 percent of the total budget.

Defence budget stood at N2.74 trillion in 2023, which was 13 percent of the national budget. A total of N2.41 trillion was allocated in 2022, and N840 billion in 2021. Despite this increase, Nigeria’s spending remains modest in the global hierarchy.

Risked opportunity

Nigeria’s challenge is not just about the budget size but where the money flows. While funds cover imports and operational costs, minimal capital reaches domestic innovators, thereby limiting technology transfer, job creation, and strategic autonomy.

If the current patterns persist, Nigeria will continue to lag peers, not only in hardware capacity but also in the global defence value chain, watching from the sidelines as other nations turn military spending into industrial strength.

Anifowoshe pointed out that Turkey’s success was not accidental but was built on clear presidential directives and an intentional plan for sovereign defence capability.

“Without a similar model, Nigeria’s multi-trillion-naira defence budgets may keep fuelling foreign factories rather than Nigerian workshops,” he cited. (BusinessDay)