The latest round of by-elections across Nigeria has reshaped the complexion of the 10th National Assembly, underscoring both the strengths and vulnerabilities of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

While the party extended its dominance in the House of Representatives, it fell short of consolidating a two-thirds majority in the Senate, a development that carries significant implications for legislative manoeuvring and the balance of power at the federal level

The Senate requires 72 senators for such a supermajority, but with 71 members, the ruling party remains one seat short.

The numbers matter greatly in a Senate where coalitions and bloc voting can tilt debates over constitutional reforms, restructuring, or sensitive national policies.

The outcome was determined by contests in two strategic senatorial districts: Edo Central and Anambra South.

Both seats had become vacant under different circumstances. Monday Okpebholo vacated his Edo Central seat after being sworn in as governor of Edo State, while the Anambra South seat fell vacant following the death of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah.

Although Ubah originally entered the Senate under the platform of the Young Progressives Party (YPP), his defection to the APC in October 2024 meant the ruling party technically held both seats prior to the by-elections.

In Edo, the APC managed to retain control. Joseph Ikpea, flying the party’s flag, secured victory with a commanding 105,129 votes, leaving his closest challenger from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Joe Okojie, with a distant 15,146.

The outcome solidified the APC’s stronghold in the state, but the ruling party’s confidence was soon punctured by developments in Anambra.

In a dramatic twist, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) made a comeback in its southeastern stronghold, clinching the Anambra South seat.

Emmanuel Nwachukwu of APGA secured 90,408 votes, trouncing the APC’s Azuka Okwuosa, who polled 19,847 votes.

The result not only denied the APC a critical seat needed to cross the two-thirds threshold but also marked an important symbolic win for APGA, which has struggled to expand beyond its regional base in recent years.

With this outcome, the composition of the Senate now stands as follows: APC with 71 seats, PDP, 28; Labour Party, 5; Social Democratic Party, 2; APGA, 2; and NNPP, 1. For the APC, it is a case of being close but not close enough.

The irony is particularly striking given that just last July, the ruling party’s tally rose to 70 after it successfully lured four PDP senators, Francis Fadahunsi, Oluwole Olubiyi, Aniekan Bassey, and Ekong Samson into its fold.

Their defections, announced in plenary and officially recorded by Senate President Godswill Akpabio had fuelled optimism within APC ranks that the magical number of 72 was within reach.

Saturday’s result proved otherwise.

APC majority in House of Reps

If the Senate proved a tricky terrain for the ruling party, the House of Representatives painted a far rosier picture for its strategists.

Here, the APC not only retained its commanding lead but also extended its dominance, riding on both defections and electoral victories.

From the 178 members it started with at the inauguration of the 10th Assembly in June 2023, the APC has grown to 205 members, thanks largely to an unrelenting gale of defections from opposition parties.

The PDP has been the biggest casualty of this migration.

Once the main opposition with 113 seats, the PDP now holds a paltry 37.

In total, the party has lost 16 lawmakers since the Assembly began, while a wider 30 members across different platforms have crossed over to other parties.

Of these, 27 were absorbed by the APC, with the Labour Party, NNPP, and ADC also losing ground.

The NNPP, which entered the chamber with 19 members, has slipped to 16.

Saturday’s by-elections only deepened the APC’s grip.

Of the 16 federal constituencies that went to the polls across 12 states, the ruling party secured 12, leaving the scraps for the opposition.

The PDP managed only one, while APGA and NNPP each picked up a single seat.

The sweep was particularly evident in constituencies such as Ovia in Edo, where APC’s Omosede Igbinedion trounced her rivals with over 77,000 votes, and Babura/Garki in Jigawa, where Mukhtar Rabi’u Garki coasted home with 38,449 votes.

Ogun’s Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North, APC’s Adesola Elegbeji claimed another decisive victory, while in Kaduna’s Chikun/Kajuru, Felix Bagudu secured the party’s hold.

The lone bright spot for the PDP came in Oyo’s Ibadan North, where Folajimi Oyekunle bucked the APC trend with 18,404 votes, reaffirming its enduring foothold in parts of the South-West.

For APGA, the House outcome mirrored its senatorial success in Anambra, bolstering the party’s relevance.

The APC, dominant in the House, enjoys the luxury of numbers to drive its legislative agenda in the Green Chamber with minimal resistance.

Yet in the Senate, its inability to clinch two-thirds leaves it dependent on careful alliances and negotiations with minority parties.

This imbalance could shape the dynamics of lawmaking in the months ahead, especially as constitutional amendments and high-stakes national debates loom large on the horizon.

Nigeria’s shifting terrain

Analysts say the twin outcomes reflect Nigeria’s shifting political terrain.

Jide Okunnowo, a political scientist, observed that the APC’s struggle to clinch two-thirds in the Senate does not necessarily limit its dominance.

He explained that even before the gale of defections, lawmakers had always aligned with the ruling party’s stance.

“Numbers in the House give the APC a comfortable cushion, but the Senate is a different ballgame.

“Falling short by one seat is not just arithmetic; it means the party will have to negotiate with minority parties on sensitive national issues, and that curtails its ability to act unilaterally,” he said.

He added, “Although all these differences are just on paper, we know they are all aligned with the ruling party. It’s almost like there is no opposition in the National Assembly, especially in the Senate.”

Idayat Hassan, executive director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, argued that the wave of defections distorts Nigeria’s multi-party system.

“The ease with which lawmakers abandon their platforms for the ruling party raises questions about the credibility of opposition politics in Nigeria.

“When the opposition is weakened to this extent, democracy itself is deprived of the healthy contestation it requires,” she said.

Others see in the by-elections a reminder of regional dynamics. “APGA’s victory in Anambra South underscores the resilience of regional parties in Nigeria,” said political analyst Paul Obinna

“Even in the face of APC’s sweeping national dominance, states and regions with strong political identities can still push back. That has long-term implications for how national coalitions are built.”

Gimba Suleiman Hassan, senior programme officer at the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), described the development as “troubling but not surprising,” noting that many Nigerian politicians are driven by personal ambition rather than public service.

“We operate in a political ecosystem largely dominated by individuals seeking personal gain, not public service,” he said.

“Many of the so-called lawmakers are simply looking for the next buffet table to eat from or the next godfather to please. They are not legislators in the true sense of the word; they are political jobbers driven by ambition and access to power.” (BusinessDay)