The final outcome of today’s by-elections holding in 13 states to fill the vacant seats in the National Assembly, Senatorial and Federal Constituencies, as well as the State Houses of Assembly, is going to be a defining movement for both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition parties.

According to the list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the concerned states include Adamawa (Ganye State Constituency); Anambra (Anambra South Senatorial District and Onitsha North I State Constituency); Edo (Edo Central Senatorial District and Ovia North East/Ovia South West Federal Constituency); Jigawa (Babura/Garki Federal Constituency); Kaduna (Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency and Zaria, Kewaye, and Basawa State Constituencies).

Others are Kano (Bagwai/Shanono State Constituency); Kogi (Dekina/Okura State Constituency); Ogun (Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency); Oyo (Ibadan North Federal Constituency); Taraba (Karim Lamido I State Constituency), and Zamfara (Kaura Namoda South State Constituency) as well as Adamawa, Enugu and Niger States.

This by-election is not just about filling a vacant seat; it’s a high-stake battle for political supremacy between the ruling party and the opposition parties. For the APC, it’s a crucial test of its power, unity, and internal cohesion. Losing this election would be more than just a defeat; it would suggest that the party’s influence is eroding. Therefore, it cannot afford to lose this by-election because the outcome of it will be closely watched by all political parties as a potential indicator of what to expect in the 2027 general elections. Only a win can boost morale and send a strong message of its continued dominance.

For the opposition, a victory would be a major upset, injecting new hope and energy into their campaigns and potentially encouraging more people to defect or join their cause. Conversely, losing the election would be a disincentive, diminishing the public perception of ADC as an alternative to the ruling party. The stake is particularly higher for ADC which many people see as an alternative to the ruling party.

In the far-flung Northern states of Adamawa, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina and Kogi, APC will face significant battle with opposition figures like Nasir El-Rufai, Babachir Lawal, Hadi Sirika, who have been the leading voices in the coalition group. The final outcome of this election will be a direct referendum on their political strength or relevance in their respective states.

Anambra State

In Anambra State, Peter Obi has actively campaigned for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate in this by-election, and the outcome is widely perceived as a significant test of his political relevance.

This is bearing in mind that the Anambra by-election is the first major electoral contest since he (Obi) announced his support for a new political coalition clothed in ADC. The election serves as a direct test of the coalition’s grassroots strength and its ability to mobilise voters for the presidential election. A victory, or even a strong showing, would signal that he could effectively transfer his personal popularity to a new political vehicle, which is a key step towards building a credible platform for future national elections.

Anambra is Peter Obi’s home state, where he served two terms as governor. While he enjoys immense popularity there, his political influence has been tested by the dominance of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). His direct involvement in this by-election provides a crucial opportunity to demonstrate that his “Obidient” movement is not merely a social media phenomenon but a powerful voting bloc that can deliver a decisive victory on the ground, even for a different party.

Therefore, the by-election is a proxy battle with the two major political parties. A win for the ADC would be a significant blow to the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), proving that Obi’s new coalition can compete and win. This would solidify his position as a primary opposition leader and a formidable political force ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Adamawa State

Like in Anambra State, Babachir Lawal represents the face of opposition coalition in Adamawa State. His political standing in the state will be put to test in today’s bye-elections. Since he dumped APC, he has been a vocal figure in the newly formed Opposition Coalition, which has taken over the structure of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). He has been a consistent and vocal critic of the Bola Tinubu administration, which he accuses of anti-people policies. This places him in direct opposition to the APC’s political agenda both at the federal level and in Adamawa, where the APC is the main opposition to the PDP-led state government.

Intriguingly, within his new political home, the ADC, Lawal is already at the centre of internal power struggles in Adamawa. He has been accused by the state chairman of the ADC of trying to undermine the party from within and acting as a “political spy” for the APC. Lawal has denied the claim, dismissing it as laughable and desperate. His political relevance now rests on his ability to consolidate power within his new party and use his influence to mount a credible challenge to the APC and other major parties in future elections. Losing this by-election will signal a bad omen for him and his political relevance in the state.

Edo

The Edo Central Senatorial District by-election is a proxy war between Governor Monday Okpebholo and his immediate predecessor, Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This election is a crucial opportunity for the PDP to prove that its influence is still strong in the state. For Obaseki, a win would show that his political capital and ability to mobilize voters remain significant, despite the recent defeat.

A victory for the PDP would be a significant morale booster for a party that just lost the governorship. It would demonstrate that the party can still hold its ground in crucial areas, which is vital for its political future in the state. Conversely, a loss would further solidify the APC’s dominance and would be a major blow to the PDP’s political standing.

For the APC, winning this seat would not only give them a senatorial seat but would also reinforce the narrative that they are now the dominant force in Edo politics.

The by-election is a battle for political supremacy that will provide key insights into the current power dynamics and set the tone for future political contests in the state.

Jigawa

In Jigawa, where former Governor Sule Lamidi, represents the face of the opposition Peoples Democrats Party PDP, today’s by-election for the Babura/Garki Federal Constituency is a key test of political strength between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

This by-election provides a direct challenge to the APC’s ability to maintain its grip on power. A loss would be a significant blow to the state’s ruling party, raising questions about its continued popularity and the strength of its grassroots mobilization efforts.

For the coalition, the ADC’s strong challenge in this by-election is a direct result of the new opposition that has been forming at the national level. The outcome will be a crucial indicator of the coalition’s ability to translate national-level alliances into tangible electoral success on the ground. A victory for the ADC would prove that they are a serious contender and not just a minor opposition party, which would attract more members and resources to the coalition.

The Babura/Garki Federal Constituency has a history of political fluidity. The seat was previously held by the APC, but its political loyalties have been contested. The by-election is not just about the two candidates but about which party can successfully lay claim to the constituency’s political soul. The result will have significant psychological and strategic implications for both parties as they prepare for the 2027 general elections.

Kaduna

In Kaduna State, all eyes are on El-Rufai. Reports indicate that the former governor campaigned vigorously for ADC’s candidate for Chikun/Kajuru by-election. The outcome of this election will be a litmus test for his continued relevance on the national political stage.

El-Rufai’s political power was at its peak during his eight-year tenure as governor. Since he left office, he has faced numerous challenges, including the Senate’s rejection of his ministerial nomination and a fallout with APC, which he recently left. The outcome of this by-election will provide the first real measure of his ability to command support and deliver votes for a candidate without the formal backing of the state government or the federal administration.

The Chikun/Kajuru constituency is currently a hotbed of political rivalry because it is a sensitive area with a complex history, particularly with regards to El-Rufai’s administration. While in power, he faced significant criticism for his handling of security challenges and ethno-religious conflicts in Southern Kaduna, which includes parts of this constituency.

A strong performance by his preferred candidate could be seen as an endorsement of his legacy and a rejection of his critics. Conversely, a loss would provide ammunition for his opponents who claim his popularity has waned.

El-Rufai is currently a key figure in a new political coalition that has been associated with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). A victory for a candidate he supports, regardless of the party, would be a major boost to this new coalition and would cement his reputation as a formidable political operator who can deliver a win outside of the APC. It would signal to other political actors that he still commands a significant grassroots following.

The bye-election also serves as a proxy battle between El-Rufai and his successor, Governor Uba Sani. El-Rufai’s relationship with the current state administration has been strained, and a decisive win for his preferred candidate would be a blow to the incumbent governor and the state’s APC leadership. In the same vein, losing the election will sound a death knell on his political relevance in the state.

Katsina

In Katsina State, Hadi Sirika, the former Minister of Aviation from Katsina State, Buhari’s home state, is a key figure within the new emerging ADC in the state. However, he has a political profile that is currently defined by two major developments: His new traditional title and the on-going legal challenges he is facing.

The Katsina Emirate Council recently appointed Hadi Sirika as a traditional ruler, specifically as the Marusan Katsina, the District Head of Shargalle in the Dutsi Local Government Area. While this role is largely ceremonial and carries no constitutional executive responsibilities, it signifies that he retains a level of respect and social standing within the traditional power structure of his home state. This appointment shows that he continues to be recognized as a key figure in his community.

However, Sirika is currently facing prosecution by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for multi-billion naira fraud, which allegedly occurred during his tenure as a minister. This legal battle is a major factor shaping his public perception and political activity. The charges, to which he has pleaded not guilty, have significantly impacted his image and have been a subject of widespread media coverage. While his traditional title grants him a platform, the on-going corruption trial makes it difficult for him to actively participate in partisan politics in the same way he did before. The future of his political relevance largely depends on the outcome of his legal case and his ability to navigate the shifting political landscape within the state’s ADC chapter.

Kogi

Today’s by-election for the Dekina/Okura State Constituency in Kogi is a major political showdown between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and a determined opposition.

It is the first major electoral contest in Kogi State since Governor Usman Ododo took office, following the end of former Governor Yahaya Bello’s tenure. While Governor Ododo is a political protégé of Bello, a strong performance by the APC in this election would validate his own political leadership and the party’s ability to maintain its dominance in the state’s politics without Bello at the helm. It would demonstrate that the APC’s political machinery remains robust and effective.

The Dekina/Okura State Constituency is a part of Kogi East Senatorial District, a region that is often seen as a stronghold for opposition parties, particularly the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The by-election provides the opposition with a critical opportunity to regain a foothold and challenge the APC’s power in the state. A victory for an opposition candidate would signal a shift in political loyalty and provide momentum for their parties ahead of the 2027 general elections.

So, this election is not just about a single legislative seat; it is a proxy battle for political supremacy in Kogi. The outcome will be closely watched by political stakeholders across the state. A win for the APC would solidify its position as the undisputed dominant party, while a victory for the opposition would inject new life into their ranks and suggest that the political landscape in the state is far from settled.

Oyo

The bye-election for the Ibadan North Federal Constituency is also a crucial test of political strength for Governor Seyi Makinde and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) against the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Governor Makinde is the undisputed leader of the PDP in Oyo State. His popularity and grassroots support were key to his re-election and the party’s success in the last general elections.

The Ibadan North by-election is a direct test of his ability to deliver a win in a federal constituency, which has historically been a stronghold for the APC. A victory would solidify his position as a formidable political force and prove his influence extends beyond his personal candidacy.

On the other hand, the APC, which lost the governorship to Makinde’s PDP, is eager to regain a foothold in the state. Securing this federal constituency seat would provide a significant morale boost for the party and signal that it is a viable contender for the 2027 elections. The bye-election is a chance for the APC to test its political machinery and demonstrate that it can compete with the PDP’s dominance.

Ibadan is the political heart of Oyo State, and the Ibadan North Federal Constituency is a key urban area. The outcome of this election will be a barometer of the political mood in the state and could influence the political calculations of both parties in the lead-up to the next general elections.

The pioneer National Chairman of APGA, Chief Chekwas Okorie, who spoke with Saturday Sun ahead of today’s bye-election in the Anambra South Senatorial District, declared it as a straight battle between the APC and ruling party in the state. According to him, the election does not look good for ADC because Peter Obi came late into the campaign, and therefore, its candidate has no chance of winning.

He said: “The truth on ground is that the two parties that will slug it out is APGA and APC, not ADC. Peter Obi came into it a bit late. Campaigns had started long ago and these parties have traversed every nook and cranny of that senatorial zone. It is nothing magical that once Peter Obi emerges votes will swing in his favour and those who have made up their minds will change their minds automatically.

“There is a need for people not to take things for granted. And you will see it in the outcome of that election. It is not looking good for APGA, I must confess. If APGA wins, it will be a surprise. The prospect is more in favour of APC. Not because they are the ruling party but because of the amount of work done for the candidate and the party in the state. In the case of APGA, there were so many aspirants wishing to fly its ticket in this election in the Anambra South Senatorial District.

If you have such a situation and somebody comes from somewhere, uses his influence and imposes a candidate of his choice, what you immediately notice is disenchantment and internal sabotage. So, you start losing from inside when you don’t allow democratic principle to guide your choice of candidate.

“In the case of APC, there were just two or three people who purchased their forms to contest. Among the three, only one candidate who emerged as the candidate of the party had been a member of that party for a long time and had made commitment in serving that party in so many capacities.

So, it was not difficult for the party leadership so say that this is the person we can present to represent us. So, the party does not have much of internal sabotage going on during the process of campaign.

“Whichever party wins this election, they will take the momentum to the November election. November is not far off. So, this election is an election before election.”

Overall, the by-election outcome could influence power dynamics within political parties, potentially shifting the balance in favour of certain factions or individuals. Whichever way it goes, the result would be a referendum on the strength of contending forces in the concerned states. (Saturday Sun)