As the 2027 general elections inch closer, Nigeria’s political temperature is rising. The newly-united opposition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) should be a formidable force against President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid. Yet, beneath the surface, the coalition is battling for survival, torn apart by external pressure, personal ambition, and deep-seated mistrust.

The ADC is a curious political experiment, a coalition of big names and big ambitions. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Anambra State governor Peter Obi, and former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi are some of the headline figures. United, they could potentially replicate, or even exceed, the combined voting power that analysts believe would have toppled Tinubu in 2023. Back then, the president won with just 36.61 percent of the vote, while Atiku and Obi, running separately, collectively pulled more than 54 percent. Now, the math seems even more tempting.

But the reality on the ground tells a different story.

Allegations of political witch-hunt

In recent weeks, the ADC has taken aim at the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led federal government, accusing it of deploying state institutions to destabilize the opposition. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is at the centre of the storm.

The allegation erupted on Monday after the anti-graft agency detained Aminu Tambuwal, former governor of Sokoto State, over alleged fraudulent cash withdrawals amounting to N189 billion.

Reacting to the development, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC’s interim spokesperson, in a statement on Monday, said: “It does appear that in today’s Nigeria, one’s guilt or innocence depends on one’s party membership, not evidence. For example, since a certain former governor defected to the APC with his state’s entire political machinery, the EFCC’s investigations into his administration have vanished from public view. Not a question has been asked. Not a document leaked. Not a single update. Yet the same EFCC still somehow find means to reopen old cases against opposition leaders and pursue the stale allegations against them.”

Atiku Abubakar echoed the sentiment, directly linking Tambuwal’s detention to political intimidation.

“The only reason the EFCC has detained Senator Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former governor of Sokoto State, is because he is a member of the opposition Coalition. It is a continuation of the Tinubu-led administration’s agenda to harass, intimidate, and decimate the opposition,” Atiku wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.

“We have seen how the EFCC has been used to empty opposition state governors into the ruling party, and the tea party is not about to end anytime soon,” he added.

The EFCC has pushed back, insisting it is not a political tool and that any opposition member found guilty of wrongdoing would be prosecuted in court.

Still, the damage is done: some politicians who had considered joining the coalition are now keeping their distance, fearing they could be next in the anti-graft agency’s crosshairs.

The zoning trap and clashing ambitions

If external pressures are bruising the coalition, internal politics may be bleeding it dry. The question of who will fly the ADC’s presidential flag in 2027 remains unanswered.

Atiku, Obi, and Amaechi all want the top job, and the coalition has yet to agree on where to zone the ticket. This debate is not just about ambition; it is tied to Nigeria’s unwritten but influential rotational presidency principle. With Tinubu, a southerner, currently in power after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many argue the presidency should remain in the South until 2031.

But Atiku is from the North, and his candidacy risks being seen as a breach of that arrangement. Obi, on the other hand, is from the South but faces resistance from northern political blocs who fear he could serve two terms, extending southern dominance for 12 years.

The Obidient revolt

Adding to the chaos is a growing discontent among Obi’s fervent supporters, known as the Obidient Movement.

In July, Tanko Yunusa, the group’s national coordinator, accused the ADC leadership of marginalising Obi’s loyalists.

“Several of our designated representatives and members are reportedly being excluded from crucial meetings where major decisions affecting the coalition are made,” Yunusa said in a document.

“This creates an impression of marginalization and undermines trust, which is essential for building a sustainable partnership,” he lamented.

The Obidients, largely made up of urban youth and middle-class professionals, are a political force in their own right. Many have vowed to abandon the coalition if Obi does not clinch the presidential ticket, a threat that could fracture the opposition’s most energized voting bloc.

Old guards vs new faces

Beyond the high-profile names, the ADC is also dealing with a simmering internal rift between long-time party members and the coalition’s newcomers. Some old members feel the party has been ‘hijacked’ by political heavyweights with no historical ties to the ADC.

On Monday, Nafiu Bala, party’s factional national chairman, vowed to ‘strengthen internal democracy’ after his endorsement by a group of party chieftains.

Bala, who ran for governor of Gombe State in 2023, has accused former party leaders of “neglecting their constitutional duties and handing over the party’s structures to powerful outsiders with no affiliation to the ADC.”

His emergence as a parallel chairman is another headache for a coalition already grappling with questions about legitimacy and cohesion.

From the outside, the ADC-led opposition coalition looks like Nigeria’s best shot at unseating the APC in 2027. But inside, it is a house with shaky foundations, battered by alleged government persecution, poisoned by internal mistrust, and paralyzed by competing ambitions.

Atiku’s ambition

Sources say Atiku’s ambition is tearing the ADC apart with many members increasingly unhappy about his decision to contest the presidential ticket in 2027.

“Since Buhari did eight years, it is the turn of the South, and that should naturally be the situation, but some people in the ADC think the ticket should be thrown open for all,” a top leader in the ADC told BusinessDay.

But Atiku’s close associates have insisted that he is free like any other Nigerian to contest the ADC presidential ticket, noting that he would not drop his ambition.

Speaking recently on BusinessDay Television’s (BDTV), Inside Politics, Fabiyi Oladimeji, a close aide to the former Vice President Atiku, said that age can’t stop Atiku from contesting the 2027 presidential election.

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“Atiku is a Nigerian, and he is free to contest. Anyone who thinks he can defeat him let him come for primaries. For anyone to say that Atiku should not contest because of age or zoning is wrong,” Oladimeji said.

Political watchers, who spoke to BusinessDay, said that it is imperative that the presidency remains in the South to complete the North-South rotation arrangement of eight years.

Similarly, it was gathered that Nasir El-Rufai, ex-governor of Kaduna State, is confused with the situation, especially with the large number of people who have told him that power should remain in the South.

Reports say El-Rufai, who championed a southern presidential candidate in the 2023 election, is becoming uncomfortable with Atiku’s insistence on running for president in 2027 on the party’s platform.

Temitope Musowo, public policy lecturer and political analyst, dismissed the speculation that El-Rufai would not back Atiku’s presidential bid, noting that a lot could still change since electioneering for the 2027 elections is still more than a year.

“I believe a lot would happen before the ADC’s presidential primary. The situation would be clearer. But I don’t believe El-Rufail would dump Atiku for any southern candidate.

“Who is he backing here then? Is it Obi? Did you not see them together all the time before they launched the coalition? How come it is now that he would just leave Atiku for someone else?” he asked.

ADC yet to zone Presidency ticket

Speaking with BusinessDay, on the party’s preparation ahead of the 2027 election, Katchy Ononuju, ADC chieftain, lamented that the nation is under the threat of drifting into a one-party state.

Ononuju however vowed that the opposition will not give up.

Ononuju further noted that intimidation, harassment and attacks on opposition are part of the move to ensure that there is no strong opposition.

“This move is part of the traditional method of harassing political opponents to retrace their steps back to the APC.

“What the APC is telling Tambuwal is that you cannot use our ladder to get to the top and now work against us.”

According to him, “Peter Obi has given his conditions. If the party meets his conditions, he will work with the party,” adding that “like a beautiful woman, political parties must be appreciated and negotiated with. So, we are still negotiating with all the parties.”

He disclosed that part of Obi’s condition is that the parties must zone the 2027 presidential ticket to the South.

Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, an ally of Atiku Abubakar, said: “We are still in the process of building the party. When we get to the bridge, we will cross it.”

Paul Ibe, media adviser to Atiku Abubakar, also noted that the party is still at a ‘construction stage.’

“We know that we have challenges with the way the ruling APC is fighting the opposition, but the most important thing is that the opposition must remain united and committed.” (BusinessDay)