In a nation where statistics should serve as the bedrock of planning, policymaking, and accountability, the numbers from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are increasingly stirring public disbelief rather than assurance.

For many Nigerians, what once was seen as a credible compass for gauging the state of the nation is now becoming an object of suspicion. From employment numbers to inflation figures, and even crime data, the growing perception is that the data no longer align with the reality they experience daily, a reality marked by rising food prices and deepening joblessness.

When numbers collide with live realities

Take the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing exercise that came into effect in early 2025. In a move the NBS described as a necessary statistical recalibration, it announced that inflation dropped sharply to 24.48% in January, a steep fall from the 34.80% recorded in December 2024.

On paper, the drop should be good news. But on the streets, it sounded more like fiction.

For traders, consumers, and even analysts, the disconnection between NBS inflation data and market realities has raised red flags. Many now believe the CPI no longer reflects the true cost of living in Nigeria’s markets, where garri, rice, and cooking gas continue to climb in price each week.

“Many Nigerians don’t understand what the inflation figure truly represents,” said Simon Samson, an Economics lecturer at Baze University and chief economist at ARKK Economics and Data Limited. “For instance, inflation at 25% year-on-year does not mean prices of all items have increased by exactly 25%. It reflects an average, some prices rise faster, others slower.”

“The inflation rate going from 23% to 22% doesn’t mean prices are falling. It simply means prices are still rising, but not as fast as before,” he added.

But while that technical clarification may hold, the deeper issue, Samson argues, is that credibility is everything for a national data agency.

“The NBS cannot afford to have confidence in it eroded. Everything about it is about the trust people have in it. So, for NBS to remain relevant, it should be able to remain credible and trustworthy,” he advised.

The crime report that disappeared

Perhaps, the most shocking episode in the growing credibility crisis of the NBS came with the release, and sudden disappearance of its Crime Experienced and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) 2024. According to the report, 614,937 Nigerians were reportedly killed, and over 2.2 million kidnapped across the country between May 2023 and April 2024.

The figures sent shockwaves through the public and the corridors of power. Critics questioned their plausibility, how could more than half a million people be killed in just a year without national mourning, headlines, or corresponding data from security agencies?

“As someone who closely monitors insecurity in Nigeria, I believe these figures are inaccurate,” Bulama Bukarti, a security expert, said while reacting to the report released in December 2024.

“Breaking down the numbers, the report suggests that over 51,200 Nigerians were killed and more than 186,300 kidnapped every month. This equates to over 1,700 deaths and more than 6,210 abductions every single day. These figures are highly implausible. While every human loss is a tragedy, the actual numbers are far lower than what the NBS claims,” he added.

Following the outcry, the government distanced itself from the report. The NBS website went down and the report vanished. No clarification. No correction. Just silence, and with it, more erosion of public confidence.

Unemployment numbers that raise eyebrows

Labour unions have not spared the agency either. Each time NBS releases unemployment figures, they are met with disdain.

In late 2024, the agency reported a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1. But rather than celebration, the announcement was met with anger, particularly from young Nigerians and labour unions.

The reason: the new methodology, introduced in 2023, defines employment as engaging in any economic activity, even for just one hour a week.

To millions of underemployed youth, the redefinition feels like a mockery. Surviving on the streets through sporadic gigs and petty trading, many do not consider themselves employed in any meaningful sense.

The Nigerian Labour Congress described the data as a “voodoo document designed to mislead the public.”

It also said: “While what the NBS is doing conforms to some global practices, this should not be pushed when its credibility would be undermined. The agency must ensure it is not influenced by politics, as that would make it ineffective.”

The most recent addition to the string of controversies is the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. While the latest report shows signs of economic growth, public sentiment suggests otherwise. Small businesses are folding, manufacturing is slowing, and the cost of doing business has soared, driven by energy cost, insecurity, and volatile exchange rates.

From credibility to controversy

Until recently, the NBS was lauded for its independence and professionalism. Under past statisticians-general, the agency earned accolades for lifting Nigeria’s statistical integrity and transparency. But many now fear the bureau is succumbing to political pressures, diluting, delaying, or even withdrawing uncomfortable data to fit government narratives

“The NBS must understand that it needs to ensure it is not influenced by politics,” Samson emphasised. “Allowing itself to be influenced that way would undermine it and make it ineffective.”

So, what’s the purpose of the data?

Amid the swirling doubts, Nigerians are left grappling with uncomfortable questions: Has the NBS become politicised? Are its reports now more about optics than objectivity? Is data now a tool to pacify, rather than illuminate?

At the heart of it all lies a dilemma: without trusted data, how can Nigeria plan for the future?

“All the blame should not be laid at the door of NBS alone,” Samson added. “Sometimes, the population misrepresents data or doesn’t fully understand what it means. But the agency has a duty to communicate clearly and remain above political influence.”

In a country facing economic pain and political uncertainty, the need for honest, transparent, and people-centred data has never been greater. The question is whether the NBS can regain the public’s trust, or whether the nation’s statistics will continue to drift further from the truth they are meant to reflect.

Until then, many Nigerians will continue to live by their own metrics: the price of bread, the cost of transport, the emptiness of their wallets, and not what the spreadsheets say. (BusinessDay)