Events have raced so fast in the past few weeks on Nigeria’s political landscape -notably the bid by at least 110 associations to be registered as political parties, the resignation of All Progressives Congress (APC) national chairman, Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje, the unveiling of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the coalition platform for certain opposition politicians ahead of 2027, among others – and the fate of the ‘light’ of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, its 2023 presidential candidate.

Some happenings require a revisit here. Recall that on the night of June 29, Obi was on X space, where he engaged his supporters. He minced no words when he assured them that he would be on the ballot to contest the 2027 presidential election. He equally spoke of the possibility of serving just one term of four years. The former governor of Anambra State also clarified what was then speculated about his being part of a coalition where he would be the running mate to some politicians, denying that he entered into any such agreement. He said: “I have not joined in any form of discussion on joint tickets including with (former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar). If there is any form of agreement that will restrict me to four years in office, I will comply with the agreement and be ready to leave office by 28th May, 2031.”

Answering questions on the same x space, Obi acknowledged “being involved in coalition talks because of his desire to rescue Nigeria from the drift by aligning with all patriotic Nigerians.” He said of the coalition: “If the coalition is not about stopping the killings in Benue, Zamfara, how to revive our economy, how to make our industries productive, how to put food on the tables of Nigerians…. Count me out. Nigeria is currently at war. We need to do something about it.” He urged Nigerians to see the need to rescue the country with him, stating, “I will bring stability to Nigeria within two years in office. Leaders of Nigeria should sit down in Nigeria and fix Nigeria.”

Speaking on the crisis rocking the LP, Obi said steps were being taken to get the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to endorse the Nenadi Usman-led National Caretaker Committee (NCC) of the LP, based on the April 4 Supreme Court judgment. The X Space interaction would suggest that Obi still has in mind to run the 2027 polls on the ticket of the LP, especially by disclosing the fact that his faction of the party led by a former Minister, Senator Nenadi Usman, was approaching INEC to sort out any lingering issues.

Obidient Movement

Yet, earlier on June 25, the chairman of the Independent National electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, had informed the nation that 110 associations filed applications seeking registration as new parties to participate in the next general election. Yakubu released the information during the second regular consultative meeting of INEC with media executives in Abuja. On the list were two names linked with the Obidients Movements, a vibrant youth group fiercely loyal to Peter Obi. On number 25 was listed Obidient Peoples Party (OPP), while number 55 had Obidients Peoples Party.

Fast forward to July 2 when top opposition politicians like Atiku, former president of the Senate, David Mark; former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi; former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai; former APC national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; former deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, Honourable Emeka Ihedioha, among others, gathered at the Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja to adopt the ADC as the coalition platform for the 2027 election, with the sole aim of ending President Tinubu’s ambition to win a second term. Obi, who was a key figure there, delivered a speech and joined the coalition with his full chest. But 24 hours later, the former governor again took to his X handle to write about the event of July 2. He wrote: “Yesterday, the coalition members formally adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the 2027 Nigeria General Elections with Distinguished Senator David Mark serving as the National Chairman and H.E. Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola serving as the National Secretary. Our commtment is to sacrifice and work together towards the 2027 General Elections, ensuring that Nigeria gets a competent, capable, and compassionate leadership that will prioritize the nation’s future by putting the welfare of Nigerians first.

“This decision was not made lightly. It comes from deep reflection on where we are as a country and what must be done to move forward. No one group can change Nigeria alone. To dismantle the structures that keep our people in poverty and insecurity, we must build bridges, not walls even when those bridges are uneasy. A New Nigeria is Possible.”

Clearly, this declaration and endorsement of the ADC confirms Obi has left the LP, technically speaking. But the development has also left political watchers asking more questions they say remain unanswered. One is the fact that there is nowhere Obi has indicated that he has resigned from the LP; though many of the other coalition members have also not given any indications yet of resigning from their political parties formally.

Does this raise doubts over Obi’s commitment to the ADC coalition? Is this more a case of holding the card in hand and watching and seeing how things pan out in the days and weeks ahead?

A political analyst, Dr. James Garkowa, argues this “raises issues of conflict of interest or even double-speak” that deserve close monitoring. “Nigerian politicians are not to be trusted. It is likely this coalition is dead on arrival, it may not survive. The interests there are varied and conflicting. It is not about Obi alone. Good thing, he has given his conditions for being part of the coalition. It means there is a high chance he will pull out if things turn against expectations. “So, would you blame Obi if he appears to be standing astride ADC and LP for now,” he queried.

The deputy national chairman of one of the factions of the Labour Party, Dr. Ayo Olorunfemi, insists Obi must resign from the LP, having chosen to join the ADC. He holds the view that it’s either Obi leaves honourably “or we will show him how to leave.” He added: “The Labour Party of today is different from the LP of 2023. We are reforming; we are talking about quality now.

“Take the case of the Obidients Movement. We have rebranded Obidients to the Directorate of Youths and Mobilisation as part of the new reforms. We realised our mistakes and the mistakes of the past won’t be repeated. We are going to be appealing to the conscience of Nigerians so that we can run this country like an organised place.” (Nigerian Tribune)