The traditional easy walkover for a second-term governor to the Senate is gradually becoming a thing of the past.

Seeking a senatorial seat after a two-term governorship is a well-established trend in Nigerian politics. It allows a former governor to remain a central figure in national politics, secure a powerful platform, and maintain political relevance. However, the political landscape is no longer as predictable as it once was, and new dynamics are making such transition much more challenging. Under the present circumstances, the era of the effortless step to the Senate for outgoing governors is over, as the path is now fraught with challenges from emerging power brokers, internal party rivalries, and a more politically aware and demanding electorate.

The trend Is particularly more dicey within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) due to the centralization of power at the federal level. According to Sunday Sun findings, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s influence on state-level politics is now a significant factor. This means that a governor’s ability to secure a senatorial ticket now depends on his relationship with the President and other national party leaders. Unlike before, the success of any governor’s senatorial ambition depends less on the power of incumbency and more on his ability to navigate these complex and shifting dynamics. In addition to that, there is also a growing sentiment among the electorate to hold politicians accountable for their performance. As such, any governor who is perceived to have underperformed over his eight-year tenure may find it difficult to convince voters to give their votes for a seat in the National Assembly.

With the current level of political awareness, people are increasingly questioning the narrative of the Senate as a retirement home for governors. So, the senatorial ticket has become a highly coveted prize. This easily puts the governors’ ambition in direct conflict with incumbent senators from their parties, or with other powerful aspirants who feel it is their turn to contest.

Dapo Abiodun

It is no longer a rumour that Governor Dapo Abiodun plans to contest the Ogun East Senatorial seat against the incumbent, Senator Gbenga Daniel. It is a widely held belief that the aspiration is at the heart of the ongoing political feud between the two heavyweights. For Abiodun, the seat is a key part of his post-governorship plan; for Daniel, it is a position he fought for and intends to use to solidify his political legacy. This potential showdown and its broader implications on the political landscape have already created a perception of an uncertain future for Governor Abiodun after his tenure.

The two political titans-Abiodun and Daniel- are from the same senatorial district, Ogun East, making a direct contest between them a matter of political necessity. Sunday Sun reliably gathered that the raging cold war in the state’s political landscape began soon after the last general election when Abiodun detected Daniel’s deft political moves to guarantee his return to the senate in 2027, leading to a crisis of confidence. According to reliable sources, this ultimately culminated in the recent demolition notices served on Gbenga Daniel’s properties by the Ogun State Government. Watching the ensuing accusations and counter accusations of political persecution, many observers see the demolition threat as the first shots fired in the 2027 senatorial battle. This public dispute signals that neither side is willing to back down.

While both leaders belong to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and are supporters of President Bola Tinubu, their rivalry puts them on a collision course. As the scheming for the 2027 election intensifies, the feud between the two leaders has escalated from behind-the-scenes disagreements to direct and public confrontation. For instance, while recently commissioning the Renewed Hope International Market, Igode, Sagamu, Senator Daniel openly lambasted Governor Abiodun for poor road infrastructure despite the huge federal allocation that accrued to the state.?

“The fallout of subsidy removal is that more funds have been returned to states and local governments. Their allocations have increased more than fourfold, and governors must now give a good account of this generosity from the President.? ?

“With the allocations you now receive, Ogun people must not continue to suffer. Our communities must not remain in darkness, our roads must not remain death traps, and our markets must not rely on private interventions to survive,” Daniel declared.

He also used the occasion to unveil the BATOGD Movement, a grassroots mobilisation platform for the re-election of President Tinubu as well as his senatorial ambition. Leveraging his long political journey with the President, he hopes to secure his re-election in 2027. Although Abiodun’s camp has not officially reacted, there is already an uneasy calm in the state’s political landscape. A close ally of Governor Abiodun, who confided in Sunday Sun, accused Senator Daniel of betrayal, saying without the governor’s concession, he would not have got the APC ticket to run for the Senate in 2023.

With the face-off, the question of who will receive the support of the President, and by extension the party’s national leadership, will be a crucial determinant in this contest. Currently, Daniel’s desire to sustain the status quo has created a dark cloud of uncertainty for Abiodun’s senatorial ambition. Ultimately, his success in this high-stakes political contest will determine whether he remains a political force on the national stage or becomes a less-relevant figure after his tenure.

The ally, speaking with Sunday Sun, narrated that Governor Abiodun was originally reluctant to concede the Ogun East senatorial ticket to Gbenga Daniel, but a prominent traditional ruler intervened to broker a truce. “Before the 2023 general elections, the Ogun East senatorial seat was held by Senator Lekan Mustapha, who was a loyalist of Governor Abiodun. Then, Mustapha was also seeking re-election.

“As the leader of our party, Governor Abiodun was initially reluctant to concede the ticket to OGD, who had just joined the APC, as it would mean denying his own loyalist a second term.

“However, following the intervention of the late Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona, Governor Abiodun had to concede the ticket to Senator Gbenga Daniel. Is that how to say thank you to a man with a large heart who gave him the opportunity to go to the Senate, having lost relevance in the PDP,” he fumed.

The current conflict Is a clear indication that a new battle has begun. Abiodun’s success in this high-stake political contest will determine whether he remains a political force on the national stage or becomes a less-relevant figure after his tenure.

Babajide Sanwo-Olu

Abiodun’s counterpart in Lagos State, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu faces a lame duck syndrome, especially coming from the Lagos Central Senatorial District. Although his political base and origin are in this district, which includes a significant part of the state’s commercial and political heartland, such as Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, and Surulere, he cannot challenge the status quo because the senatorial zone is considered a stronghold of the state’s political establishment.

The senatorial seat is currently held by Senator Wasiu Sanni Eshilokun, who succeeded President Tinubu’s wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu. For decades since the exit of the late Senator Muniru Museri, the seat has been occupied by key loyalists of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his wife, Oluremi. This has been an established political order, and it would be highly unusual for a Governor to challenge that order. Perhaps, this is one of the key reasons why a senatorial bid for Sanwo-Olu is deemed unlikely..

One of the top hierarchies of the APC, who pleaded anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue, told Sunday Sun that it is beyond the power of a governor in Lagos to decide his next political step. He said philosophically: “You don’t toy with a lion’s tale. The unwritten rule is that the governor’s primary role is to implement the policies and vision of the party leadership. Once a governor’s two terms are complete, they are expected to step back and allow a new generation of leaders to emerge, under the guidance of the GAC.

“Ambode was denied a second term because he was perceived as trying to build his own political structure and act independently of the GAC and its leader. Sanwo-Olu, who was hand-picked by the GAC to replace Ambode, is well aware of this precedent.”

Besides, a successful senatorial bid would require Tinubu’s blessing, which is far from guaranteed, especially given the speculation about other potential powerbrokers such as Seyi Tinubu and Femi Gbajabiamila.”

Under the circumstance, Governor Sanwo-Olu faces a lame duck syndrome after his second tenure. His political future is even more complex than that of his counterpart in Ogun State. In his own case, the uncertainty surrounding his next political step is rooted in the unique and often unpredictable power dynamics in the state.

The political landscape In Lagos, defined by the dominant influence of President Tinubu and the emergence of new power brokers, make Sanwo-Olu’s post-governorship political life less predictable.

Abdullahi Sule

Nasarawa State Governor, Abdullahi Sule, is not exempted from the political uncertainties that second-term governors are grappling as their tenures gradually wind to an end. As a second-term governor, Sule is a major power broker who will be instrumental in determining his successor. Like many of his peers, Governor Sule is reportedly contemplating a senatorial bid.

Already, the political landscape in Nasarawa is filled with an array of governorship aspirants. Reports indicate that campaign posters and billboards of prominent figures like former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu, Senator Ahmed Wadada, and others under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Have already flooded parts of the state This makes the task of anointing a successor incredibly difficult, as any choice he makes will likely alienate a significant number of powerful individuals. His alleged stance on choosing his own successor, while demonstrating his authority, can also create friction and lead to a rebellion from those who feel left out of the process.

Reports suggest that his constituents are pressuring him to contest for the Nasarawa North Senate seat in 2027. This ambition, however, puts him in direct competition with other strong contenders and could make him vulnerable to political infighting. He is at a point where he must decide between seeking another public office to remain politically relevant and focusing on completing his second term without being distracted by political posturing. He has publicly stated his desire to focus on his remaining two years, which suggests he is aware of this dilemma. His success in navigating these challenges will be directly tied to the public perception of his achievements.

His supporters have described him as a silent achiever, pointing to his administration’s focus on industrialisation, infrastructure and urban renewal, particularly in the capital city of Lafia. The government highlights achievements like the creation of an enabling environment for businesses, including foreign direct investment in solid minerals like lithium.

Yet, he is in a precarious position where he must manage a restless and ambitious political class while also trying to solidify a positive legacy. How he handles his future political ambition will be the ultimate determinant of his political relevance in the years to come.

Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq

While it is a common route for a second-term governor to go to the Senate, for the Kwara State Governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, several factors will determine the success of his senatorial bid. These include the internal power struggle within the APC, the ambition of the incumbent Senator, Saliu Mustapha and the lingering influence of the Saraki political structure.

As the leader of “O To Ge” political movement which ended the decades-long Saraki political dynasty in Kwara, Abdulrazaq has become a major political force. His emergence as the Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) further adds a layer of national and political clout to his profile. This position demonstrates his influence among his peers and could be a major asset in any future political contest. However, how he manages the keenly contested succession race will have a direct impact on his own political future and his ability to command the loyalty of the party.

The incumbent senator for Kwara Central Senatorial District, Senator Saliu Mustapha, is a formidable political figure in his own right. There have been reports of a cold war between him and Governor Abdulrazaq over who will be the leader of the party after the current tenure. Mustapha’s own political base and grassroots support are significant, making him a strong contender for the senatorial seat in 2027.

The Saraki political machine, though weakened, has not been entirely dismantled. Former Senate President Bukola Saraki still holds significant influence in the state, and any political ambition by the governor would have to contend with the remnants of that powerful political structure.

Already, there is a speculation of alliance talks between Saraki and Mustapha, which could pose a major threat to Abdulrazaq’s senatorial bid. How he navigates several treacherous waters will ultimately depend on his ability to unite the various factions within his party, manage the succession race to his advantage, and convince the electorate that his eight-year legacy is a strong reason to entrust him with the senatorial mandate.

Yahaya Inuwa

It is widely speculated within Gombe State’s political circles that Governor Yahaya Inuwa has a senatorial ambition. Like many of his second-term counterparts, this is considered a logical next step to remain a key player in national politics after his gubernatorial tenure. He will be slugging it out with his political rival and the incumbent Senator, Danjuma Goje, who is currently representing Gombe Central Senatorial District.

Gombe politics has been dominated by a power struggle between the two political titans. While they have had periods of reconciliation, their rivalry has often been a source of tension. Goje’s political structure poses a significant challenge to Governor Inuwa’s senatorial ambition. This may likely renew their feud. (Sunday Sun)