As Nigerians wait for the release of the zoning formula for sharing of presiding and principal positions in the National Assembly by the majority All Progressives Congress (APC), lawmakers from four geopolitical zones have stepped up their campaigns and lobbying. Barring any changes, the ruling party may unveil the much-awaited document shortly after the Salah (Muslim Ramadan festivities) with a view to putting to rest the palpable tension that the yet-to-be released formula has not only generated in the polity but in the country at large.

On what shape the envisaged formula would take, an APC chieftain who spoke during the week said what should be expected won’t be different from what obtained when the country resumed democratic rule, saying, “As it was between 1999 and 2007, so should it be now.”

It will be recalled that between 1999 and 2007 when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held sway, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo from South West was the president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from the North East was his deputy while the president of the Senate was given to the South East, Speaker of the House of Representatives ceded to North West.

In the said arrangement, the Deputy Senate President and Deputy Speaker were reserved for the North Central and South South respectively thus fuelling speculations that this arrangement be replicated for the 2023 and 2027 administration since President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Vice president-elect, Senator Kashim Shettima are from South West and North East respectively.

Those contesting for Senate president include Senators Orji Uzor Kalu (South East), Sani Musa (North Central), Jibrin Barau (North West), Godswill Akpabio (South South), Dave Umahi (South East), Ahmad Lawan (North East), Ali Ndume (North East), Abdulaziz Yari (North West), and Osita Izunaso (South East).

In the House of Representatives, the speakership contestants include Deputy Speaker, Ahmed Idris Wase; Yusuf Gagdi; Abdulraheem Olawuyi, all from the North Central. Also in the race are Aminu Sani Jaji; Makki Abubakar Yalleman, Sada Soli; Tajudeen Abass, all from the North West. The sole candidate from the North East is Aliyu Betara while

Benjamin Kalu, Princess Mariam Onuoha are from the South East; the incumbent, House leader, Alhassan Ado Doguwa, from the North West, is also in contention. While the APC has 55 Senate seats out of 109 and over 162 out of 324 seats announced by INEC, the seven opposition parties have 162 seats so far. A lot has been happening behind the scene in the build up to the forthcoming proclamation of the 10th National Assembly schedule for June.

The APC

Although the APC has suspended discussions on zoning until after the supplementary elections which held on April 15, some of its key stakeholders have been providing insight into what may likely be the final decision. One of such personalities is the National Vice Chairman (North West) of APC, Comrade Salihu Lukman, who in his latest advisory stressed that the configuration of the leadership that would be assuming office on May 29, 2023, should be the same as that of 1999.

He submitted that given the challenge of neutralszing religious tension in the country, it would appear advantageous to adopt the 1999 formula but with some variations considering some current realities in the country’s political space. Lukman said, “For instance, if the Senate President is to come from the South- East, he would certainly be a Christian. The only problem is the experience of 1999 – 2003, which highlighted problems of instability with the South-East holding the position of Senate President. Also, as at 1999, the South- East strongly voted for the PDP to emerge as the ruling party. The same could not be said today.

“Perhaps, to avoid that, and to compensate the South- South, which gave more votes to the APC, including winning the Governorship election in Cross River and majority members of the Edo State House of Assembly, consideration can be given for the South-South to produce the Senate President.”

He had shortly after the presidential and National Assembly polls suggested that the composition of the leadership of the party be tinkered with to reflect religious and regional balance. According to him, the National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, being a Muslim should step down to pave the way for a Christian from the North Central to take over since both the president-elect and his deputy are all Muslims.

Also, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Senator Ajibola Basiru, a few days ago disclosed that in zoning the positions, Tinubu and the party NWC and the lawmakers would act like a statesman taking intoconsideration, the diversity and heterogeneity of the Nigerian society.

He said, “The leadership of the party as well as the members of the 10th Assembly will have to look at so many variables. For instance, arguments may be canvassed like the religious argument that the President is a Muslim, the Vice-President is a Muslim, and will it not be reasonable to have a Christian as the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives? According to him, some of the parameters to be considered for the emergence of the next Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives include ranking, competence, capacity, and religion.

“You cannot wish away such an argument particularly when you see the divisive nature that politics has taken in recent time in Nigeria”.

He said, “It will be in the best interest of our party to zone the offices so that we can narrow the number of contestants because when you have eight persons from a single political party contesting, it creates a problem for us to have a cohesive force going into the election.”

Geopolitical performance:

One other issue for consideration would be the performance of the ruling APC in each of the zones jostling for one office or the other. It is on record that the North West brought 2,653,235 votes followed by the South West with 2,279,407 and North East 1,185,458 votes. Conversely, the North Central came fourth with 1,670,091, South South 799,957 and South East with paltry 127, 605 votes. Again, if one considers the North/South dichotomy, the APC scored 5,507,787 in the three geopolitical zones of the North and 3,206, 959 votes in the Southern geopolitical zones.

If the APC is to go by the performance of the six geopolitical zones in the presidential elections, it will consider the North West for the Senate presidency because the party got the highest votes there, while the speaker will be for the South West and North East should settle for deputy senate president with the Speaker going to North Central and deputy speaker South South and South East Senate leader.

Zoning:

But as explained by the Senate’s spokesperson, other variables apart from vote’s contribution would have to be considered. Issues such as religion, national unity, equity and justice and others. Based on this, one of the following zoning arrangements will suffice when the party takes the final decision on the matter.

In the first scenario, the North Central will be allocated the position of party chairman and speaker of the House of Representatives; the North East will have Vice President and House Majority Leader and North West, Secretary to the Government of the Federal Government and Deputy Senate President. While the South West will have the President and Senate Majority Chief Whip, the South East will be given Senate Majority Leader and South South, Senate President and House Minority Chief Whip.

The second possibility is that the North Central will produce party chairman, Deputy President and House Chief Whip with North East going with Vice President and Senate Leader. The North West may go with Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Speaker House of Representatives and Deputy Senate Whip.

The South West will be left with the President and Senate Deputy Leader; South East will be given President of the Senate and Deputy House Chief Whip while South South will be allocated Senate Chief Whip and Deputy Speaker House of Representatives. With all factors considered, it will be fair to zone depthe position of Senate President to either South East or South South depending on the party’s disposition.

The South South has given the APC one governor and seven senators while the South East has two governors and six senators. In the House, the South South has done better for the party. So, considering the religious factor and regional balance, the party can adopt any of these zones for the position of Senate President. Similarly, the position of speaker of the House can be given to either North West or North Central. Although the North West gave the highest number of votes to the party, the North Central also performed well for the APC and deserves a presiding position.

Hence the party can allocate the position to either of the two and give the deputy Senate President to the zone that lost out on the speaker position. In all these, the unity of the country is paramount and provision of an enabling environment for the president-elect and his team to hit the ground running after inauguration is crucial.

If the APC gets it right with the zoning arrangement in the National Assembly, it would have set in motion a positive roadmap toward tackling the myriad problems bedeviling the nation. In about two weeks, a decision may be taken.(New Telegraph)