It is crunch time as the three frontline presidential candidates, former Vice- President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP) and Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) are in a battle to garner the votes of the Ijaw nation.

The Ijaw nation spread in many states including Ondo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers and Akwa- Ibom states is regarded as the fourth largest ethnic group in Nigeria. Its votes are very important for any presidential candidate that hopes to win in February 2023.

As the election fever gradually grips the nation, the foot soldiers of the three frontline candidates have begun intense lobbying for votes in Ijaw nation. However, certain factors are likely to sway the votes of the people for the presidential candidate of their choice.These factors in no small measure would shape the contest for votes in Ijaw land. Invariably, the influence of Ijaw political leaders, Ijaw pressure groups namely Ijaw National Congress (INC) and Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) and ex-militant leaders in the Ijaw nation will play a critical role in making or marring the chances of the three frontline presidential candidates.

Ijaw political leaders

Leading the pack is the Chief Edwin Clark led Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) which has endorsed Obi for the Presidency. Chief Clark, well respected in Ijaw nation and by extension the Niger Delta region for his frank views has been vehement in his opposition to a Northerner succeeding President Muhammadu Buhari after eight years.

Clark who stated that Obi is the “best hope of a new Nigeria” implored Nigerians regardless of ethnic and party affiliations to vote for Obi.

“Taking all these factors into consideration and putting His Excellency Peter Obi side by side with all other candidates being presented by other political parties, I am convinced beyond doubt, that our country Nigeria has a great opportunity to elect a phenomenal team, the candidate of the Labour Party, and his deputy, Senator Datti- Baba Ahmed, as president and vice- president respectively.

“I also call on all well meaning Nigerians irrespective of ethnic, religious and even political backgrounds to vote for H.E Peter Obi without hesitation, as he is our best hope of a new Nigeria of peace, stability and progress.”

Former President Goodluck Jonathan, who though did not openly endorse Obi, commended him for being peaceful and not divisive, noting that his approach to politics would help to build and unite the country. This is being seen as a positive development which is likely to boost the political mileage of Obi especially among theconservative Ijaws.

Bayelsa Governor, Senator Douye Diri, regarded as the Governor- General of the Ijaw nation is however backing Atiku.A dyed –in- the-wool Ijaw nationalist having served as the organising secretary of INC at a young age, Diri has not minced words in his support for Atiku.

Speaking when Atiku campaigned in Bayelsa,Diri said he,(Atiku) remains the only Presidential candidate that has visited the Ijaw House to meet with Ijaw leaders to interface directly. Aside from that, he declared that it is only Atiku that has been candid about issues affecting the Ijaw nation.

“When we requested that the PDP presidential candidate visit the Ijaw House, he said, “why not? I am part of the Ijaw nation.

“Presidential candidates have come here to campaign and gone. They never thought there was the Ijaw nation headquarters here in Yenagoa.

“When we had the unprecedented flood of 2022, only three presidential candidates visited us, one of which was Atiku Abubakar. Not only did he visit, he also donated N50 million to the flood victims.”

“I believe that working with the PDP and Atiku, who already has restructuring, devolution of powers and resource control in his manifesto, is the way that will bring the Ijaw nation to realize the dreams of Isaac Adaka Boro and all our heroes past.

“Let it be known that the Ijaw nation can no longer be used as a militancy point to satisfy the ego of some politicians from within or without.”

For the two other former occupants of the office of Bayelsa governor,Timipre Sylva and Senator Henry Dickson, their stand is clear in the forthcoming election.

While Dickson being a PDP chieftain is backing Atiku and working assiduously to deliver Bayelsa West to the PDP, Sylva who is the Minister of State, Petroleum is on the side of Tinubu and the APC. Using his network and position as a member of the Federal Executive Council, Sylva has been able to positively impact the Ijaw nation which may count for his party in the presidential elections. His role in facilitating the Oil pipeline Surveillance Contract awarded to some people in the Niger Delta region and the appointment of a substantive Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission, (NDDC) are positive developments that could swing votes for the APC.

INC/IYC

The Ijaw National Congress (INC) and the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) are two political pressure groups that wield considerable influence over important segments in the Ijaw nation. With a very active old population and very enlightened young population, the INC and the IYC have critical roles to play in the outcome of the presidential election.

While it seems INC was tilting towards Atiku with its President, Prof Benjamin Okaba’s declaration that the Ijaws would only vote for the candidate that factors their hopes and aspirations into his agenda as President, seems a subtle endorsement of Atiku, the recent visit by Obi to the Ijaw House could have changed the permutation.After the interaction with the Ijaw leaders at the Ijaw House, political observers believe Obi has convinced his audience that he is the right man for the job.

On his part, the IYC seems to have taken a stand to mobilize for Atiku with the utterances of its national spokesman, Ebilade Erekefe. According to him, the APC led government has only brought woes upon the people.

“We believe that equity will provide the region its fair share of the Nation’s wealth. No right thinking Niger Delta will support any political party that has brought hardship to the region. Our major challenge is the exploitation of our oil wealth without reparation to host communities who bear the brunt of the oil exploitation.”

Sadly to say, when Bayelsa was faced with ravaged flooding, the APC led Federal Government did not show the desired empathy to our state. Atiku Abubakar showed the needed support with donations and scholarships to victims of the flood disaster. Who values us at the time of our needs, we will value in return.

“While the IYC and the INC will remain apolitical, we will not remain silent to negotiate a better deal in the interest of our region. Historical facts showed that the region fared better under the PDP. It is a fact that the NDDC, the Presidential Amnesty Programme, the Niger Delta Affairs Ministry and the NDCMB were conceived under the PDP. Even the position of Vice President and President of the Nation were provided for the region under the PDP.

“Under the APC, all we got were tales of woes and empty promises, particularly the empty Presidential directive ordering the IOCs to relocate to the Niger Delta region.

Ex-militant leaders

Since the 2008 Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP), ex-militant leaders have emerged as the mouth-piece of the Ijaw people because they understand the language of marginalisation and they are ready to defend the people at the cost of their lives.

After the granting of amnesty, the ex-militant leaders mostly from the Ijaw nation were supportive of the PDP principally because of Jonathan who was then President. They supported PDP in 2015 and even in 2019. However, ahead of the 2023 presidential elections, things have changed as most of the ex-militant leaders are rooting for Tinubu and the APC. Top on the list is Government Ekpemupolo (aka Tompolo), Biobepre Ajube (aka Shoot at Sight), Victor Ben Ebikabowei (aka Boyloaf) and Joshua Maciver.

Many believe the oil pipeline surveillance contract and a reported deal between Tinubu and Tompolo have played a huge role in swinging the support of the ex-militant leaders to the side of Tinubu. With a contract worth billions of naira every month, Tompolo who has Ajube as his main man in Ondo covering Ese-Odo and Ilaje axis,Maciver in Bayelsa and other foot soldiers in Rivers, ex-militants may be tempted to join the Tinubu trail.

Findings indicated that Tompolo’s deal with Tinubu included the continuation of the amnesty programme and a review of charges against former amnesty boss, Kingsley Kuku to ensure he returns to the country. According to impeccable sources, the deal proves to be what convinced Tompolo of Tinubu’s sincerity towards the Ijaw nation.

A presidential source, who is in the know about the deal, said the APC would gain maximum advantage with the support from ex- militant leaders led by Tompolo.

“First on the list of the issues agreed upon were that the incoming government under Tinubu should continue with the Presidential Amnesty Programme as well as the pipeline surveillance contract that was awarded to Tompolo by the Federal Government in August last year.

“Tompolo also pleaded with Tinubu to have a review of the charges against former president adviser, Kingsley Kuku because according to him, they are political.

“We think with the new understanding and support that Tompolo has given to our presidential candidate, the equation in the Niger Delta has greatly changed and we expect to derive maximum advantage,” the source said.

Also on the side of the APC and Tinubu is the Niger Delta freedom fighter, Alhaji Mujadid Asari- Dokubo, who has been very vocal in canvassing votes for the ruling party. Recently, he convened a meeting in Harry’s Town, Akuku- Toru Local Government Area of Rivers State, where Kalabari chiefs endorsed Tinubu and vowed to vote for him.

The remaining ex-militant leaders, Eris Paul aka Ogunboss and Africanus Ukparasia aka General Africa ( Bayelsa)and Farah Dagogo ( Rivers State) are the remaining major ex-militant leaders rooting for Atiku.

Old wounds

Many people in Ijaw nation and the Niger Delta region have not forgotten the role Atiku and Tinubu played in ousting their son- Jonathan from Aso- Rock. Some conservative Ijaws have not forgiven the duo of Atiku and Tinubu and are not ready to have anything to do with them. As the election inches closer, these groups of people would remind the people of the ‘sins ‘ of Atiku and Tinubu, and serve them back in their own coin.

Bandwagon effect

A substantial percentage of the youth population in the Ijaw nation has also caught the fever of the growing number of supporters for the Labour Party candidate. Known as ‘Obidients’, the movement is growing like wildfire among youths. All over the country, youths are attracted to the ObiDatti presidential ticket which they believe is a breath of fresh air.(Daily Sun)