Busola Oworu, in this piece, examines the uncertainties pervading the operations of the Oyo State Chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the nation marches towards the 2027 election.

With Governor Seyi Makinde’s decision to adopt a consensus option in selecting the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2027 elections, focus has shifted to the individual aspirants, with attention being directed at their experience, grassroots reach, and ability to sustain the developmental gains of the current administration.

By this time tomorrow, April 8, the timeline set by Oyo State Governor, Engr. Seyi Makinde, for the nomination of candidates to fill the 51 elective positions to be vied for in the 2027 election, would have lapsed.

The governor had set April 8 as the date the consensus candidates would be unveiled, and those would be the party’s candidates who would fly its flag in the next election.

Two weeks ago, a stakeholders’ meeting was held at the secretariat in Ibadan, where the decision to reconvene on April 8 was reached. That development has placed critical stakeholders and aspirants across the 33 local government areas of the state on edge.

Advisory bodies saddled with the responsibility of guiding the process have also been under pressure to weigh competence, loyalty, and political viability in recommending individuals deemed fit to occupy strategic offices.

At the centre of public discourse, however, is the far more consequential question: who succeeds Governor Makinde in 2027? Because that is the number one position in the state, answers to that question remain germane.

No fewer than thirteen aspirants have signified interest in the governorship seat. They are Olufemi Ajadi, Fatai Ajani Owoseni (Rtd.), Adedeji Olajide (Odidiomo), Beulah Adeoye, Shaheed Fijabi, Bimbo Adekanmbi, Oluseye Opatoki, Segun Ogunwuyi, Debo Akande, Adebo Ogundoyin, Dahud Sangodoyin, Nureni Adeniran and Aare Abiola Olagunju.

Meanwhile, observers believe that beyond the number of aspirants, the real contest in a politically complex state like Oyo is determined by a set of critical factors that usually shape the choice of a viable candidate. Chief among these is the ability to command a strong grassroots presence across the 33 local governments, backed by sufficient financial capacity and the political dexterity to sustain the coalition that brought the current administration to power.

Zoning considerations and regional balancing, cutting across Ibadan, Ibarapa, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, and Oyo zones, also remain an indispensable variable in the unfolding equation. Equally important is electoral strength in the face of a resurgent opposition, coupled with a clean public image and alignment with the administration’s “Omituntun” governance philosophy.

Consistent with his public pronouncements, Governor Makinde has maintained that competence and loyalty to the state, not personal allegiance, will be the overriding criteria in determining his successor.

In essence, the decision is less about closeness to the centre of power and more about identifying a candidate capable of winning the election, preserving party cohesion, and sustaining governance momentum.

Within this evolving matrix, the conversation among members of the ruling party has gradually shifted from speculation to strategic evaluation. At the heart of this recalibration is the need to strike a balance between competence, political structure, coalition management, and acceptability amongst the electorates. This benchmark has come to define the Makinde era.

While the state is awaiting the details of the report of the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), which screened the aspirants, it is enough to state that a combination of some of the aforementioned factors would come into play in determining the last man standing. Investigations, however, revealed that the Advisory Council rated the aspirants on the level of experience, governmental exposure, policy initiatives, geopolitical balancing, and religious adherence. While there are reports that some of the aspirants have been rated in accordance with their performance, only the governor can confirm the veracity of that claim. However, we look at the staying power of each of the mentioned aspirants subsequently.

Dr. Debo Akande

He is a technocrat, whose name popped up early in the race, even while he appeared uninterested. In recent weeks, he has upped the game of his visibility and was recently seen in a video clip speaking unadulterated Yoruba. Akande is currently the brains behind the administration’s agribusiness policies, occupying the position of Executive Adviser on Agribusiness and Director General, Oyo State Agribusiness Development Agency (OYSADA). He is a Christian who hails from Ibadan.

Bimbo Adekanmbi

Another technocrat is Bimbo Adekanmbi, a former deputy chief of staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, who later served as Commissioner for Finance in that administration. Though he has not been given a formal appointment, the fact that he serves as the coordinator of the remodelling project of the Ladoke Akintola Airport, Alakia, Ibadan, to international standards makes him an insider in the administration, so to speak. Adekanmbi, like Akande, is also a Christian who hails from Ibadan.

CP Fatai Owoseni (Rtd)

Here is another technocrat in government. He rose to the position of Commissioner of Police in Lagos and Benue States, a position he retired from after 35 years. He currently serves as Special Adviser to the governor and Executive Secretary of the Oyo State Security Trust Fund. Though he is relatively new to partisan politics, his strong background in the security circles puts him in good standing. He has also been credited with successfully curtailing inter-agency clashes among the security agencies serving in the state. A Muslim, Owoseni also hails from Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

Hon. Adedeji Dhikrullahi Stanley Olajide

He is a two-term member of the House of Representatives, who represents Ibadan South-West/North-West federal constituency. He also hails from Akuru compound in Ibadan. The representative is the chairman of the House Committee on Digital, Information Communication Technology, and Cybersecurity, a strategic portfolio at the heart of Nigeria’s evolving digital economy and governance framework. He is believed to enjoy some support within Ibadan, regarded as the state’s most decisive voting bloc, but across the state, he may have to rely on the structure of Omituntun 2.0. However, having won election back-to-back in his constituency makes him a known face in the state.

Hon. Segun Ogunwuyi

A prominent member of the Omituntun 1.0 and 2.0, where he had served as Director General of the Oyo State Public and Private Partnership Agency (OYSIPPA) and now as the Chief of Staff to the governor. He was a member of the Oyo State House of Assembly before contesting the election into the House of Representatives, representing Ogbomoso North/Ogbomoso South and Oriire federal constituency. He is a Christian and the only aspirant from the Ogbomoso zone of the state. It was said that his role as the Chief of Staff to the governor places him at the nerve centre of government operations, even as his statewide electoral appeal remains to be fully tested.

Adebo Edward Ogundoyin

The current Speaker of the Oyo State House of Assembly is well versed in the politics of the state. He is a Christian from Eruwa, in the Ibarapa-East Local Government Area of Oyo State, who was used as the springboard for PDP’s revival ahead of 2019, when he defeated the APC candidate in his constituency in a rerun election to fill the vacant Ibarapa East State constituency seat. As Speaker since 2019, he has gained statewide visibility, which he could use to his advantage in the 2027 election battles.

Sources, however, said that the fact that he comes from Ibarapa, a minority area, might be an albatross that he has to manage deliberately if his chances are to get brighter.

Dr. Nureni Adeniran

Dr. Adeniran currently oversees the Oyo State Universal Basic Education Board. He is an educationist whose influence is spread across the sector. Besides, he is a Muslim who has been a councillor, local government chairman, commissioner, and currently chairman of the Oyo State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB). His involvement in grassroots politics and governance gives him.

Barrister Abiola Olagunju

The former chairman of the Oyo State Independent Electoral Commission (OYSIEC) came into the race somewhat as a late starter. It was, however, learnt that he was one of the aspirants interacted with by the Advisory Council. He can leverage his knowledge of the state as a former state’s chief electoral officer who conducted elections in the 33 local governments. Details of his aspiration are bound to emerge as the processes unfold.

Prof Dahud Sangodoyin

The professor of statistics is one of the most transferred commissioners in the last seven years. For instance, he has served as commissioner in the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, the Ministry of Establishment and Training, the Public Works and Infrastructure, as well as the Energy and Mineral Resources. At one stage, he was seen as the anointed successor to the governor, but his profile has taken a hit along the line as he was being redeployed into different ministries. He is one of those aspirants who would rely on the structure of Omituntun 2.0 to enhance their spread across the state.

Other aspirants

Other aspirants, including Saheed Fijabi, Olufemi Ajadi, Oluseye Opatoki, and Beulah Adeoye, have equally been pushing for relevance and a possible nod of the governor in the race. None of them currently serves in the state government except for Fijabi, who led the Oyo at 50 celebration committee. He is originally a member of the PC who recently ported to the PDP after his appointment as head of the Golden Jubilee celebration. Ajadi, Opatoki, and Beulah Adeoye have continued to broaden the political calculations and conversations within the PDP, though their current influence appears insufficient to significantly tilt the frontline dynamics.

While Saheed Fijabi was a one-time member of the House of Representatives, Olufemi Ajadi, who just moved his political base from Ogun State to Oyo State, was the gubernatorial candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in Ogun State during the 2023 general election. On his part, Seye Opatoki, little or nothing is known about him, except for a few of his billboards sparsely placed around the Ibadan metropolis. However, Amofin Beulah Adeoye has been pushing his name into the conversations through the releases he makes public about national development. He is another new entrant in the race, who hails from Otu in Itesiwaju Local Government Area of Oyo State. A trained lawyer, who is expected to bring legal expertise and a fresh perspective to the contest. However, his challenge will be building a statewide political structure and cultivating the grassroots networks necessary to compete effectively against more established aspirants. His entry adds a dimension of professional competence and diversity to the field, though. How he translates that into electoral success across Oyo’s multiple zones remains a key issue.

While details of the report being considered by the governor and his advisory council are still sketchy, it could be said that the race for Oyo Government House in 2027 will be propelled by multifaceted factors. It is not just about popularity, intellectual capacity, competence, and character, but a combination of all the above, further dosed with strategy, depth, and political arithmetic. It is almost certain that the governor would have his eyes on whoever would likely maintain party unity and consolidate the gains of the present government. (Nigerian Tribune)