Dr. T. A. ADEGBA

Prelude: Nigeria at the Crossroads

This is my personal opinion — plain, sharp and unvarnished — about the crisis that is consuming swathes of Nigeria and about what must be done. I write as an analyst who has watched patterns repeat across the Sahel and across our own country: criminal economies that feed violence; jihadi ideologues who exploit grievance; pastoral disputes that harden into predation; and a state that too often hesitates where decisive action is required.

I do not speak for any institution. I offer judgment, critique, and a set of non-negotiable principles to guide action.

Northern Nigeria today is a theatre of both tragedy and endurance. The endless bloodletting in Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Taraba, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, and Nasarawa States represents not just human loss but the slow erosion of state legitimacy. The insurgents, bandits, and killer-herdsmen terrorising these regions are not ordinary criminals — they are networks with Islamic ideological roots, financial sponsors, and cross-border linkages that mimic a state within a state.

It is not enough to describe them as bandits or insurgents; we must name them for what they are — terrorists with religious, ethnic, and economic agendas.

Their targets are deliberate: minority Christian farmers, vulnerable women, children, and community leaders whose annihilation paves the way for territorial and economic control. These are not random acts of savagery — they are calculated assaults on the soul of Nigeria.

If the U.S. Strikes — The Immediate Shockwave

If President Donald Trump — or any U.S. administration — decides to act militarily against these enclaves, the immediate impact will be seismic.

Operationally, the United States would likely employ precision drone strikes and special-operations raids rather than full-scale invasion. Washington prefers quick, surgical operations to signal power and restore deterrence. Key targets would include leadership hubs, communication lines, and arms depots in forested regions across the North and Middle Belt.

In the short term, this would degrade terrorist logistics and communications. But politically, it would internationalise Nigeria’s internal security crisis, forcing Abuja to make a delicate choice between cooperation and resistance. A U.S. strike will test Nigeria’s sovereignty — and its preparedness.

If Nigeria appears passive or complicit, it risks being portrayed as a failed state that cannot protect its own citizens. If it resists cooperation, it may appear to shield criminals. The consequences either way would reverberate far beyond the battlefield.

The Human Cost — Who Bears the Brunt

The communities that will bear the heaviest burden are those already on the frontline — the Christian and minority farming populations of the Middle Belt and North Central. Villages in Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, Taraba, and Niger States have already been razed repeatedly, their crops burned, and their young abducted or massacred.

Foreign strikes risk adding collateral casualties to already devastated populations. Civilian deaths — even accidental — would deepen resentment, fuel extremist propaganda, and complicate humanitarian operations. The United States’ history in the Sahel and Afghanistan proves that civilian casualties turn tactical success into strategic failure.

Yet inaction is not mercy. If nothing is done, these same communities will continue to die quietly, abandoned by both the Nigerian state and international conscience. The challenge, therefore, is not whether to act, but how to act justly and effectively.

The Question of “Boots on the Ground”

The United States will not commit to a long-term ground campaign. It will deploy small elite units, intelligence cells, and air power — but no prolonged occupation. The political appetite for extended wars is dead in Washington.

At most, Nigeria would see temporary cooperation — aerial surveillance, special operations assistance, and intelligence sharing. The burden of security will still rest squarely on Nigeria’s military and leadership.

Which is why Mr. President’s recent meeting with the Service Chiefs, and the Chief of Air Staff’s directive to his commanders to take decisive action, could not have come at a more critical time. These are early signs of awakening — indicators that Nigeria is beginning to rise from hesitation to determination.

The world, including America, watches to see if these orders translate into results. Action is the only language Donald Trump will understand. If Nigeria demonstrates seriousness, Washington might rethink unilateral strikes and instead support a joint operational framework led by Nigerians themselves.

The Resilience of Terror Networks

Even if U.S. or Nigerian forces succeed in killing top commanders, the threat will not disappear. Boko Haram, ISWAP, and the newer bandit cells are not monolithic; they are franchised ecosystems sustained by illegal mining, kidnapping, and cross-border smuggling.

Kinetic success without governance follow-up will simply splinter them into smaller, harder-to-detect factions. Unless financing networks, recruitment pipelines, and ideological roots are destroyed, Nigeria will face a resurgence — perhaps more violent than before.

This is why every military operation must be paired with economic justice, intelligence reform, and institutional strength.

The Danger of Religious Polarization

If U.S. or Nigerian operations are perceived — or portrayed — as anti-Islamic, the result could be catastrophic.

Extremist clerics and political opportunists will twist the narrative into a “war against Islam,” inflaming emotions across the North and dividing communities even further. The President must therefore take charge of the narrative.

He must make it unequivocally clear: Nigeria is not fighting Islam; it is fighting terrorists who defile Islam.

Simultaneously, he must warn religious leaders — Christian or Muslim — that inflammatory sermons and hate-filled rhetoric will no longer be tolerated. The law must apply equally. Freedom of speech cannot extend to freedom to incite bloodshed.

If Nigeria loses the information war, every military victory will be hollow.

Why Sponsors Remain Untouched — The Mining Connection

The shielding of sponsors, abetters, and financiers of terror is Nigeria’s most shameful failure. Some of these actors hide behind politics, ethnicity, or business; others profit directly from illegal mining operations in Zamfara, Niger, and Kebbi States.

These mines provide gold and minerals that are smuggled through porous borders to finance weapons and recruit mercenaries. The government’s failure to regulate these activities has turned large portions of the northwest into a criminal economy — a state within a state.

President Tinubu must now order full forensic financial audits, asset seizures, and transparent prosecutions. No political godfather, ethnic chief, or religious benefactor should be beyond the reach of justice. The day sponsors of terror begin to fall, terrorism will begin to die.

Nigeria’s Contingency Plan — Sovereign Action

If the United States shelves its plans to strike, then the Nigerian Armed Forces must carry the torch.

Mr. President should issue clear, written marching orders to the Service Chiefs: secure, neutralize, and stabilize. No rhetoric, no ambiguity.

The chain of command must be unbroken, and compromise within the military ranks must be treated as treason.

The following phased plan is essential

Phase 1: Assert Nigerian sovereignty through unified national messaging.

Phase 2: Create a central intelligence fusion hub for real-time coordination.

Phase 3: Target illicit economies (especially mining and ransom networks).

Phase 4: Protect civilians and farmers through rapid response rural units.

Phase 5: Deliver justice transparently — including special courts for terror crimes.

National Unity at Stake

The future of Christian–Muslim and North–South relations hinges on how this crisis is handled. If the government acts fairly — prosecuting all culprits regardless of faith or ethnicity — it can rebuild trust and national unity. But if bias or selective justice persists, Nigeria risks sliding into sectarian fragmentation.

The President must act as a statesman, not a sectional leader. The nation must be seen to be fighting for justice, not vengeance.

Strong Institutions: The Only True Shield

Every nation’s survival rests not on the charisma of its leaders but on the durability of its institutions.

Nigeria’s tragedy is that institutions bend to personalities instead of the law. When leaders change, policies collapse; when governors rotate, progress dies.

The President must now build institutions that outlive him — independent, transparent, and fearless.

Intelligence agencies must integrate and coordinate.

The judiciary must deliver swift justice through special anti-terrorism tribunals.

Police and civil defence must evolve into community-focused protection units.

The military must embrace zero tolerance for compromise and corruption.

Strong institutions, not strongmen, will ultimately defeat insurgency.

Healing the Wounds of Faith and Region

Nigeria must confront its deepest wound — the distrust between the North and South, between Christians and Muslims. The President should convene a National Faith and Reconciliation Commission, bringing together sincere clerics and traditional rulers to foster dialogue and rebuild trust.

The message must be clear: terrorists do not represent Islam or any tribe. They represent the failure of governance and the corruption of conscience.

"Unity is not a luxury; it is national survival."

Sovereignty and the American Factor

If Nigeria acts decisively and demonstrates progress, the U.S. will have no justification to strike.

But if Abuja continues to equivocate while massacres persist, foreign powers will intervene under the pretext of restoring order.

America acts not from charity but from interest. A Trump administration will not negotiate endlessly — it will act unilaterally.

Thus, sovereignty is not preserved by slogans. It is earned through competence.

The Tinubu Doctrine

Nigeria must articulate a clear Tinubu Doctrine of National Security, anchored on these six imperatives:

1. Action over Rhetoric.

2. Accountability over Sentiment.

3. Justice over Appeasement.

4. Faith over Fear.

5. Institutional Strength over Personality Cults.

6. Unity over Division.

Let the Eagle Hunt Again

Nigeria stands today on the edge of its destiny. From Zamfara to Plateau, from Kaduna to Benue, the blood of farmers and children cries out for justice.

The time has come for the Nigerian eagle to hunt again — not the American one.

President Tinubu has taken the first right step by demanding action from his Service Chiefs and receiving immediate response from the Air Force. But now the nation must see results. Every bomb dropped, every village rescued, and every terrorist captured must reinforce one message: Nigeria has awakened.

The world respects power, not pity. America will respect Nigeria when Nigeria begins to defend itself. If Mr. President acts with courage and consistency, he will be remembered not just as a president — but as the leader who restored Nigeria’s dignity.

If he hesitates, history will record that while the eagle waited, the vultures feasted.

“When the Eagle Hunts: A Point-by-Point Dissection of the Security, Political and Social Consequences if the U.S. Strikes Terrorist/Bandit Enclaves in Northern Nigeria.”

• Dr. T. A. Adegba can be reached via adegba.tanko@gmail.com