Concerns are deepening that Nigeria may be drifting towards a one-party state as the once-dominant Peoples Democratic Party struggles to retain its few remaining strongholds following a wave of defections by its governors to the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Four PDP governors in the North are considering switching to the APC ahead of the 2027 elections.

The development has sparked fresh anxiety in the opposition party, further weakening the opposition’s structure across the North and raising questions about its future.

The PDP, which held the presidency for 16 straight years after the return to democracy in 1999, now governs just eight of Nigeria’s 36 states — Bauchi, Oyo, Adamawa, Osun, Plateau, Taraba, Zamfara and Rivers — its weakest position in the Fourth Republic.

With recent defections by some of its key governors, including Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta State), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom State) and Peter Mbah (Enugu State), attention has turned to states such as Plateau, Taraba, Zamfara, and Adamawa, where speculations are mounting that their governors may soon cross over to the APC.

The steady loss of territory — fuelled by defections and political realignments — has emboldened the APC, which continues to attract high-profile converts ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In the past months, defections by governors and key party figures have reduced the PDP’s national presence, leaving the opposition battling internal divisions and leadership fatigue.

With the PDP now clinging to just eight states, political watchers warn that Nigeria’s democracy risks losing the balance of multiparty competition that has defined its Fourth Republic.

Analysts say the recent wave of defections — often driven by access to federal power rather than ideology — undermines opposition accountability and weakens institutional checks.

“The ruling APC’s growing dominance is not just about numbers,” said one political analyst. “It’s about perception — that opposition politics no longer pays in Nigeria.”

As the 2027 elections draw closer, the PDP faces the toughest test of its existence: whether it can hold its few remaining strongholds or watch them collapse, one by one, under the weight of political expediency.

‘Govs will defect’

The ruling APC hinted at imminent high-profile defections from the PDP and the Labour Party, with at least four governors reportedly in talks to join the party.

The APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, disclosed this in an exclusive interview with The PUNCH.

Arodiogbu stated that the governors of Plateau, Taraba, Rivers, and Abia (LP) states were among those being courted by the APC and could defect before the end of the year.

“It is a possibility that the Plateau governor will join us likewise his Taraba counterpart. We are also looking forward to receiving Rivers governor, (Siminalayi) Fubara, and Governor (Alex) Otti of Abia State in our midst.

“These are all high possibilities. We expect that to happen in the coming weeks before our congresses. Most of these defections are expected to happen before the end of this year. Once they happen, it will further confirm that the APC remains the dominant and most organised political platform in Nigeria,” Arodiogbu stated.

The APC chieftain explained that the party’s open-door policy and reform agenda had made it increasingly attractive to key political figures across the country.

“The truth is that the APC has become a home for all progressives,” he said.

“We are not just expanding in numbers but in quality leadership. Governors and other political leaders are beginning to see that this is the platform that offers stability and direction for Nigeria’s democracy.”

Arodiogbu said the leadership of the party had created an inclusive atmosphere that encouraged political participation and dialogue.

“The national chairman has made it clear that the APC is not closing its doors to anyone. We are reaching out to people of goodwill who believe in President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda,” he said.

He further stressed that the anticipated defections would strengthen the APC ahead of the 2025 congresses and 2027 elections.

Kefas move ‘imminent’

In Taraba, strong indications emerged on Monday that Governor Agbu Kefas may soon abandon the PDP for the APC — a move that could end the PDP’s 26-year uninterrupted rule in the state.

Multiple sources within both parties with knowledge of the matter confirmed that talks were already at an advanced stage, with Kefas’ close allies reportedly reaching out to key APC powerbrokers in Abuja.

“It’s no longer speculation. Consultations are ongoing, and the governor is weighing the timing carefully,” a senior aide to the governor told The PUNCH.

If the move materializes, analysts say it would mark one of the biggest political realignments in Taraba since 1999, giving the governor easier access to federal support for ongoing infrastructure and security projects.

An APC insider in Jalingo described the development as “a homecoming long overdue,” saying the governor’s leadership style and grassroots appeal would strengthen the ruling party’s base ahead of 2027.

“Kefas is a performer. His coming will only make our structure stronger,” the source said.

But within the PDP, unease is spreading. Party loyalists describe the rumoured defection as “a betrayal of mandate” that could decimate the opposition’s hold in the North-East.

“If Kefas moves, PDP will be finished in Taraba. He is the only one still holding the structure together,” a senior party member admitted.

Although the governor has yet to make a public statement, his close allies say his recent political body language — including increased visits to APC-controlled states and meetings with federal officials — has heightened speculation.

For now, Taraba waits, as its 26-year history of PDP dominance stands on the brink of collapse.

Fintiri in talks?

Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa State has built a political reputation for thriving as an opposition figure. In 2007, he won his first major election under the now-defunct Action Congress, defeating a sitting member of the state House of Assembly from the then-ruling PDP.

Fintiri has since sustained that record, winning the governorship in 2019 and 2023 when the APC controlled the Federal Government under former President Muhammadu Buhari.

However, four months ago, the APC spokesperson in Adamawa, Mohammed Abdullahi, told The PUNCH that discussions were ongoing between the party and the governor.

“It is true there are fruitful discussions still ongoing with our great governor, Ahmadu Fintiri, over his return to his former house (APC),” Abdullahi said.

“I’m optimistic that the Adamawa State governor is coming back to the APC. Our discussions so far have been positive.”

But a PDP chieftain in the state dismissed the claim as “speculative and unrealistic.”

According to him, Fintiri remains the “compass of the PDP” and cannot contemplate abandoning the party “when the world is looking at him as one of the remaining hopes of democracy in Nigeria.”

“You know APC can build bridges where there are no rivers,” he added, “so I’m not surprised by their empty and claims.”

In May, speculations about a possible defection gained traction after Fintiri held a closed-door meeting with the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, at the Government House, Yola.

Sources told The PUNCH that the meeting, which lasted over four hours, focused on persuading the governor to join the APC along with his cabinet members.

“The governor was offered the opportunity to produce his successor, nominate candidates for National Assembly seats, and choose between a ministerial or senatorial position in 2027,” an aide of Fintiri with knowledge of the matter, said.

Despite these overtures, Fintiri appears firmly rooted in the PDP — a position his aides insist will not change soon.

Mutfwang under pressure

In Plateau State, speculation that Governor Caleb Mutfwang might defect to the APC dominated headlines despite outright denial from both his aides and the state’s political observers.

However, on Saturday, Mutfwang admitted that he was under pressure to join the ruling party, declaring that he had no intention of leaving the party.

Party insiders asserted that top APC officials have been holding talks with the governor in a move to get him to move to the ruling party.

Speaking at an event in Jos, the governor, who is seeking re-election in 2027, said only God and the people who elected him had the authority to decide his political future.

“It’s true that there has been pressure on me,” Mutfwang said. “But I told them only two entities can authorize me to change my party — the God of heaven and you, the people.”

Turning to the audience, he asked, “Have you asked me to go anywhere?” The crowd responded with a thunderous “No.”

Plateau has long been regarded as the heartland of the PDP, having produced all but two governors from the party since 1999. For many residents, the PDP’s return to power in 2023, after eight years of “accidental” APC rule, was seen as a restoration of the state’s political identity.

“Plateau has PDP as its political inheritance. The governor is not moving anywhere,” said Grace Bulus, a resident of Jos.

While some analysts speculate that Mutfwang might seek alignment with President Bola Tinubu’s administration ahead of 2027, others argued that his political base and emotional ties to PDP figures like former governor Jonah Jang make a defection unlikely.

On October 17, Plateau APC leaders publicly rejected any suggestion that the governor could be admitted into their fold.

At a stakeholders’ meeting attended by APC National Chairman Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, former governors Simon Lalong and Joshua Dariye, and other chieftains, the party resolved to “strengthen internal cohesion” and dismissed talk of Mutfwang’s entry as “unfounded.”

They unanimously adopted a motion moved by former Deputy National Secretary, Festus Fuanter, opposing Mutfwang’s possible entry into the APC.

Fuanter stated, “I move the motion against accepting Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang into the APC.”

In response, Mutfwang’s media aide, Gyang Bere, reaffirmed that the governor remained committed to the PDP, saying he had the capacity to win re-election “without switching parties.”

Following the party’s recently concluded state congress that produced new executives under Chief Raymond Dabo — chieftains say the development has consolidated the party base and internal stability.

“We are united and focused,” former governor Jang said after the congress, describing the outcome as “proof that the PDP remains strong in Plateau.”

Mutfwang splits APC

But in dramatic fashion, the North Central APC Forum rejected the resolution passed by leaders of the party in Plateau against accepting Governor Mutfwang to the party.

The forum, comprising stakeholders from APC chapters across the North Central states, said those resisting Mutfwang’s possible defection were acting out of selfish interest rather than for the good of the party.

In a statement on Tuesday, the forum’s chairman and a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council in the 2023 elections, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, reaffirmed their call on Mutfwang to leave the PDP.

Zazzaga said, “It is not just about gathering to reject Governor Caleb Mutfwang. The real issue is who can win the governorship seat for the party. Among those so-called stakeholders that gathered to reject him, only a few are genuine, capable members.

“For instance, in the previous election, the APC governorship running mate lost his polling unit and ward to the PDP. He got 2,800 votes in his ward, while the PDP got 10,600. Yet, he is among those opposing Mutfwang joining the party.

“Are these people that relevant or trustworthy? They did not vote for Tinubu — they voted for Peter Obi — but are now rushing to Abuja for appointments. It was only the APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, who won his local government for President Tinubu,” the statement read.

The forum maintained that it was advocating for members who could add value to the party rather than those driven by personal gain.

“We are still calling on Governor Mutfwang to join the APC because of the crisis in the PDP. Those rejecting him cannot even win their polling units. We want to join hands to win Plateau State for Tinubu. It is not about personal interest now; only when you win elections can you talk about interests,” it added.

“Those rushing to Abuja for federal appointments should first present their polling unit results. We promise President Bola Tinubu that after the next election, we will publish the results from each polling unit so he will know who is who,” the statement said.

The Plateau APC had slammed Mutfwang after the governor said he was under pressure to join the APC but the North Central APC Forum maintained that his claim was true, saying some influential figures in the Presidential Villa were backing their calls for him to join the party.

“It is true that Governor Mutfwang has been under pressure to join the APC. We can confirm this because some influential figures in the Presidential Villa are behind our calls for him to do so. We will not relent until we convince him to take this step in the best interest of Plateau State and himself,” the forum stated.

Also, Arodiogbu downplayed any concerns about potential friction with the party’s hierarchy or the immediate past governor.

“The national chairman of the party is from Plateau State. And by all measures, he is the leader of the party nationwide,” he stated.

“So, we will be pleased to have Governor Mutfwang in the APC, and we believe he will bring a lot of good fortune. I really don’t foresee any problem coming from his defection.”

He added, “As I said the APC national chairman is a very democratic person and quite exposed politically. So, I believe it is a situation that we will be able to manage. I don’t think there is going to be any problem.”

PDP members defect

In Zamfara, while the spokesperson to Governor Dauda Lawal on Media and Communications, Mustafa Kaura, dismissed reports suggesting his principal’s possible defection to the APC, recent political developments in the state have continued to fuel speculation that it may only be a matter of time before the governor joins the ruling party.

In the past week, 15 key officials of the PDP in the state, including close allies and supporters of the governor defected to the APC, a move seen by many as a sign of deeper cracks within the opposition party.

Those who left the PDP include former Youth Leader Sahad Dabo, former Treasurer Nasiru Anka, former Organising Secretaries Janaidu Kiyawa and Musa Halilu, former Zonal Organising Secretary Lawali Aliyu, Hajiya Rabi Bakura, Hajiya Amina Duniya, Bashar Kade, a former PDP aspirant for the Kaura Namoda South constituency, and Rilwanu Bello, an ex-councillorship aspirant, among others.

While handing over his PDP membership card, Dabo said he decided to leave because “the party favoured only the rich,” adding, “I am inspired by Senator Yari and (Bello) Matawalle’s leadership to join the winning party.”

Also speaking, Amina Duniya, who said she had spent 25 years in the PDP, urged APC leaders to uphold fairness and justice, pledging to mobilise more supporters for the ruling party.

The defectors were formally presented to the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, by APC state chairman Tukur Danfulani, Senator Tijjani Yahaya, and Lawal Liman during a ceremony in Abuja last Thursday.

Addressing the gathering, Matawalle said, “The APC will continue to be more united and strong with the current strategy mapped out and its welfare packages being delivered to the people of the state.”

In his remarks, Danfulani welcomed the defectors, assuring them of full integration into the party’s structure. He maintained that the APC “remains open and fair to all those committed to its progress,” and dismissed reports of internal divisions.

“With our recent victory in the state by-election and the calibre of people joining us,” he said, “it is clear that the APC will reclaim Zamfara in 2027.”

However, Kaura insisted Governor Lawal would not dump the PDP.

“The Governor has said it times without number that he would not betray the electorate who voted him to power as Governor under the platform of the PDP. Some people have been spreading rumours that Governor Dauda is planning to dump his party the PDP and join the APC.

“There is no iota of truth in this; as such I want the PDP supporters to disregard this. Governor Dauda Lawal will remain in the PDP and has no intention of joining any other party. He is a true believer who believes in God and whatever God has destined to happen, must happen no matter the party he belongs to.”

Meanwhile, the Government House Gusau has issued a radio jingle in all the radio stations in the state informing residents that the governor would not join APC as widely speculated.

APC reaction

In its reaction, the Zamfara chapter of the APC denied reports that it was planning to receive Governor Lawal into the party.

The state APC Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Yusuf Idris, said the party would not accept Lawal even if he planned to join the ruling party.

He said, “The Zamfara State chapter of the APC has never approached the PDP or its governor in any way to join the APC.

“APC as a party in Zamfara has never been impressed by the dismal and decimating performance of Governor Dauda Lawal in the state.

“This disappointing position is certainly the stand of the electorate and many other politicians in the state, which was demonstrated at the August 16, 2025 Kaura Namoda South State House of Assembly bye-election where the APC overwhelmingly defeated the ruling PDP.

“This was quickly followed by the defection of the PDP candidate, along with his supporters to the APC.”

Idris stressed that the APC did not need Lawal’s patronage to win future elections, adding that, “The PDP is already dead in Zamfara.” (The PUNCH)