When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced sweeping changes in Nigeria’s military hierarchy on Friday evening, the news generated mixed reactions across the country. For some, it was a strategic move to restore confidence in a military stretched thin by persistent security challenges. For others, the timing, barely a week after rumours of a coup plot, was too coincidental to ignore.

Sunday Dare, the president’s spokesman, made the announcement in a statement that read like a script for urgency.

“The new Chief of Army Staff is Major-General W. Shuaibu; Air Vice Marshal S.K. Aneke is Chief of Air Staff; while Rear Admiral I. Abbas is the new Chief of Naval Staff. Chief of Defence Intelligence, Major-General E.A.P. Undiendeye, retains his position,” Dare said, adding that the appointments took immediate effect.

General Olufemi Oluyede, former army chief, also replaced General Christopher Musa as the new Chief of Defence Staff, marking one of the most significant overhauls of the Nigerian Armed Forces in recent years.

Shadows of a coup that wasn’t

Barely a week earlier, online newspaper Sahara Reporters had alleged that a group of military officers were plotting to overthrow President Tinubu’s government. The report, which quickly gained traction on social media, linked the detention of 16 officers to the supposed plan.

The Defence Headquarters, however, was swift to dismiss the allegations. Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, director of Defence Information, described the report as “false and intended to cause unnecessary tension and distrust among the populace.” He added that the detained officers were being investigated for “issues of indiscipline,” and that the cancellation of the Independence Day military parade was “purely administrative.”

Yet, despite the denial, the rumour had already done its damage. In a country with a long and painful history of military coups, Nigerians are quick to sense political tremors in the barracks.

“If it is indeed true that there was a rumoured coup, I think he (Tinubu) acted sensibly by doing exactly what he has done,” Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) said in an interview on Friday.

Rising insecurity and the quest for fresh thinking

Beyond the political undertone, there are practical reasons why Tinubu may have opted for a reset in the military command. Insecurity remains Nigeria’s most stubborn crisis, an octopus with many arms: terrorism in the North-East, banditry and kidnapping in the North-West, farmer-herder clashes and ethno-religious crises in the North-Central, separatist violence in the South-East, and oil theft in the South-South.

Even Abuja, once considered a fortress, has seen a rise in isolated attacks and kidnappings on its outskirts. The spread of insecurity into previously stable regions, including parts of Kogi, Kwara, and Niger states, has deepened public anxiety.

Politically, Tinubu’s government has battled perception issues, including growing public frustration over hardship and allegations of elite detachment. Against this backdrop, decisive military appointments send a message of control, both to the public and within the ranks.

A familiar cycle or a turning point?

Tinubu’s charge to the new service chiefs was clear: justify the confidence reposed in them by enhancing professionalism, vigilance, and comradeship. But Nigerians have heard similar promises before, each reshuffle often met with initial optimism, only to fade into familiar patterns of underperformance and mistrust.

Balancing reform and loyalty

Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has sought to consolidate power across key institutions, including the military and intelligence services. By reshuffling the top brass, the President may be signaling two things: a demand for results in the fight against insecurity, and a warning to potential dissidents within the ranks.

Observers say with Nigeria’s long history of military coups, even the faintest suggestion of mutiny is politically explosive.

Although the presidency has repeatedly dismissed talk of a coup, sources insist that recent internal investigations and detentions point to deeper unease within the forces.

Opposition parties react

Opposition parties, particularly African Democratic Congress (ADC), have questioned the opaque nature of the shake-up.

In a statement by Bola Abdullahi the ADC National Publicity Secretary, the ADC described the move as “abrupt and worrisome,” urging the government to clarify whether it was prompted by a real threat or political paranoia.

“We acknowledge that the President reserves the power to make such changes as he may deem fit. However, we are somewhat concerned that this change is coming in the wake of widespread rumours of an attempted coup,” the ADC said.

The oppositeion party criticised the federal government for what it described as a confusing and evasive response to the rumours, saying Nigerians deserved clarity, not mixed signals.

“The reactions of government to the dangerous rumour have veered between deliberate obfuscation and outright confusion in a matter that required crystal clarity,” Abdullahi said.

The ADC also pointed out that many of the service chiefs removed had been appointed only about 28 months ago, while the current Chief of Defence Staff had only been In his previous post as Chief of Army Staff for a year.

It argued that such a major change in the military hierarchy could not have been made without serious underlying reasons.

“This kind of decision has serious and far-reaching implications for stability within the ranks and therefore could not have been taken without strong reasons,” the party noted.

The ADC said Nigerians deserve a categorical explanation from the government, stressing that its concern was for the country’s peace and the health of its democracy.

“As an opposition political party, our interest remains the stability of our country and our democracy. In light of developments in our neighbourhood, particularly in Chad and across the Sahel, we are gravely concerned,” it said.

Observers note that the Tinubu administration has been battling declining public trust amid economic hardship and rising inflation.

Political analysts say a coup scare, real or perceived, could have further eroded confidence in the President’s leadership, making a swift and dramatic response inevitable.

Tinubu must fight poverty

Experts say the challenge for Tinubu now lies in implementation of policies that would fight poverty which is on the rise in Nigeria since he began the reform policies.

Nsikan Effiong, political analyst, said unless the root causes of insecurity poverty, unemployment, and poor intelligence coordination are addressed, the latest reshuffle may end up as another routine political response rather than a genuine reform.

Other experts also stated that the President must ensure that the new service chiefs deliver where their predecessors faltered.

“There must be clear improvement in coordination, rebuilding morale, and restoring public confidence”, Effiong said.

Historical parallels

Nigeria has witnessed several instances where service chiefs were dismissed amid similar uncertainty from President Obasanjo’s 2001 reshuffle following military indiscipline, to Buhari’s 2021 overhaul prompted by the Boko Haram crisis.

In each case, insecurity and loyalty were intertwined, highlighting the fragile civil-military balance in Africa’s largest democracy. (BusinessDay, excluding headline)