The recent endorsement rally organized by the Kogi State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo has once again exposed divisions within the ruling party.

What was intended to be a show of unity and renewed loyalty to both leaders ahead of the 2027 general election, has instead laid bare the enduring rivalry between two major blocs in Kogi APC: the Ododo/Yahaya Bello group and the Faleke/Audu political family.

Held on October 18 at the Muhammadu Buhari Civic Centre in Lokoja, the rally attracted large crowds from across the 21 local government areas, including political appointees, lawmakers, and party executives. Among the notable figures in attendance were former Governor Yahaya Bello and Senator Smart Adeyemi. However, the absence of key figures from the Faleke/Audu bloc, particularly Hon. James Faleke, a federal lawmaker and close ally of President Tinubu, and Prince Shuaibu Abubakar Audu, the late Abubakar Audu’s son and current Minister of Steel Development, spoke louder than the speeches and cheers that filled the hall.

The event, which the organizers described as an “organic show of support,” quickly became the flashpoint of a renewed debate about inclusion, fairness, and political succession in Kogi APC.

A house divided

According to multiple party sources, the latest rift reflects a long-running struggle for control of the APC structure in Kogi, a conflict that dates back to the aftermath of the 2015 governorship election. The death of Prince Abubakar Audu, then APC candidate, a few hours before his likely victory, set off a political realignment that saw Yahaya Bello, who came second in the party primaries, emerge as governor.

Faleke, Audu’s running mate, was denied the chance to inherit the joint ticket, a move many in the Tinubu camp saw as a slight against their leader, who had invested heavily in the campaign. The fallout from that episode still shapes the political dynamics of the state today.

Political observers say the endorsement rally was therefore less about Tinubu and more about consolidating the Ododo/Bello structure amid growing speculation that Faleke may be positioned for the 2027 APC ticket.

Underlying resentments

Beyond the political optics, deep-seated ethnic and factional sentiments also played out. For years, Kogi West, home to the Okun-Yoruba, has demanded a turn at the governorship. The zone, which has never produced a governor since the state’s creation, sees the current tension as a continuation of its political marginalization.

Professor Ponle Adeniyi, an Okun elder, said the rally reawakened old frustrations.

He said, “The root of this disillusionment often traces back to a fundamental act of betrayal.

“In 2019, while soliciting support for his second term, the then-Governor Yahaya Bello pledged before prominent Okun elders that his successor would be one of their own. Because the Okun people are virtuous and perhaps politically naïve, our elders believed him and galvanized crucial support, securing his victory.

“When the time came to honour that pledge, it was breached with utter impunity.”

Structure and survival

For analysts, the crisis in Kogi APC is also about the control of the party’s machinery.

A Lokoja-based political commentator, Jamiu Abubakar, said the current APC structure is the product of Yahaya Bello’s political architecture, which replaced the original Audu-Faleke foundation that won the state for the APC in 2015.

“The present leadership of the party in Kogi is a continuation of the Bello order. Those who built the initial structure were displaced or sidelined.

He added that the new political order at the national level appears to favour the Audu-Faleke group, a development that has sent jitters through the Yahaya Bello/Ododo camp, which fears that a political payback may be imminent.

He said the endorsement rally was a clear sign that reconciliation efforts within the party have yet to yield positive fruits.

Fallout from Karimi’s criticism

Senator Sunday Karimi, representing Kogi West, amplified the discord when he described the rally as “unnecessary, insensitive and self-serving”. According to him, President Tinubu’s performance will speak for him when the time comes.

“There’s no need to march people out like schoolchildren for endorsements,” he added.

His comments drew swift reactions from loyalists of Governor Ododo. Seven council chairmen from Kogi West issued a joint statement condemning Karimi’s remarks as “unfortunate and ungrateful”, insisting that the massive turnout at the civic centre was genuine.

“The crowd came out willingly to show love and loyalty to President Tinubu and Governor Ododo. The voice vote was not stage-managed,” the statement, read by Kabba/Bunu council chairman Zacchaeus Dare Michael, said.

The chairmen urged members to disregard Karimi’s “outburst” and focus on ensuring APC’s victory in 2027.

However, a faction within the party dismissed the council chairmen’s defence as hollow. A group calling itself Concerned APC Members described the rally as “a self-serving exercise”, accusing the organizers of trying to curry favour with the state leadership.

“The local government chairmen from the West district lack the moral standing to speak for our people,” said the group’s spokesperson, Muhammad Suleiman.

“They should focus on governance and leave flattery alone. Everyone knows Tinubu’s popularity doesn’t need a choreographed show.”

Another pressure group, Movement for the Emancipation of Kogi State, which has been promoting a red cap insignia as an emblem of uprising, said the rally was not about loyalty but fear of losing control.

“Kogi APC stands at a crossroads. Behind the smiles and slogans lies mistrust and resentment among stakeholders who feel alienated. What was meant to show unity has instead widened the cracks,” the group said in a statement.

The Amupitan factor

The internal tension in the Kogi APC has also been stoked by the recent appointment of Professor Joash Amupitan (SAN) as chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The new INEC chairman hails from the same Kogi West axis as Faleke, who is regarded as one of President Tinubu’s closest allies and is believed in some quarters to have had a hand in his emergence.

Party insiders say Amupitan’s appointment has unsettled the Ododo/Bello camp, which suspects that the move could tilt future political advantages towards Faleke. There is growing speculation that Faleke, who played a key role in Tinubu’s 2023 presidential campaign, may be groomed to succeed Ododo in 2027.

“The endorsement rally was not just about Tinubu’s second term,” a top APC source told Daily Trust. “It was a pre-emptive move by the Bello camp to reassert Ododo’s legitimacy and send a message to Abuja that Kogi is still under their control.”

According to the source, the Bello bloc sees Faleke’s rising influence at the national level and fears that the combination of his relationship with President Tinubu and the new INEC chairman could reshape the state’s political dynamics.

Analysts say the calculations are not misplaced. The Tinubu camp has never hidden its displeasure over the events of 2015, seeing Yahaya Bello’s emergence as “an act of political spite” against Tinubu by the powers that be at the time.

Now, with Tinubu in the presidency and Amupitan overseeing INEC, observers believe Faleke may finally have the platform to claim what was once within his grasp. “If Faleke is ever to become governor, his best opportunity will be under Tinubu. Having an INEC chairman from his zone only strengthens that possibility,” said a political observer in Lokoja.

Following his appointment, several influential political figures across the three senatorial districts were said to have been making frantic efforts to gain his attention, signalling his growing significance in the unfolding political landscape.

However, in certain quarters within the state’s power blocs, some political gladiators are said to be uneasy over the new INEC chairman’s reputation for being principled and uncompromising. There are fears that his insistence on due process and transparency could frustrate some entrenched interests ahead of the 2027 elections.

“The fear of the new INEC chairman sticking to the rules of the game has gripped many of the political actors,” said Godwin Amanabo, a political pundit and retired director in the Federal Civil Service.

Shifting alliances and future battles

The growing speculation about Faleke’s future has intensified political realignments across Kogi’s three senatorial districts. While the Ododo/Bello group consolidates its hold on the state structure, several key politicians from Kogi West and even parts of the East are reportedly re-establishing contact with Abuja-based power brokers ahead of the next election cycle.

Some appointees believed to have fallen out with the current administration, are said to be quietly aligning with the Faleke camp, anticipating that national influence may soon outweigh state machinery. At the same time, former allies of Bello who have been politically sidelined see in Faleke’s resurgence a chance to return to relevance.

As the dust from the rally settles, one fact remains clear: the Kogi APC is far from united. The old wounds of 2015, deepened by questions of power rotation and internal exclusion, have resurfaced with renewed force.

For the Bello/Ododo camp, the priority is to consolidate control of the party and ensure Ododo’s continuity beyond 2027. For the Faleke/Audu family, the focus is on reclaiming what they believe was unjustly taken, this time with the advantage of presidential goodwill.

A senior APC member summed it up bluntly: “Kogi APC is not one house. It’s two houses under one roof. One belongs to Yahaya Bello; the other to Faleke. The endorsement rally was just a reminder that the roof is already leaking.” (Daily Trust)