In a move reshaping Nigeria’s political landscape, several governors elected under the main opposition the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are defecting to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the country heads towards the 2027 general elections.

Although defections are nothing new in Nigerian politics, observers say the movement is unprecedented due to its timing, pace, and symbolism.

Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom State governor, and Sheriff Oborevwori, Delta State Governor, moved from the PDP to the APC earlier in the year. Douye Diri, Bayelsa State governor, and Peter Mba, Enugu State governor, former PDP members have moved to the APC.

The development has strengthened APC’s foothold in Nigeria, particularly in the South-East, weakening the PDP in its otherwise strongholds ahead of the 2027 general election.

There are rumours that Agbu Kefas, Taraba State governor, is also planning to defect to the ruling party.

There are five possible reasons for the defections, according to interviews with several politicians and politically-active Nigerians.

Power consolidation

The gale of defections to the ruling party, particularly from the South, signals President Bola Tinubu’s strategy to consolidate his influence across southern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections, pundits told BusinessDay.

This comes amid discontent over his administration’s policies and reforms in the North, where his influence and popularity have waned significantly since assuming office in 2023.

Several key politicians who worked for his victory in 2023, especially those from the defunct Congress for Progressive (CPC) bloc and ally of late former President Muhammadu Buhari, have moved to the Action Democratic Congress (ADC).

Similarly, attempts to lure Rabiu Kwankwaso, the leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), whose party controls Kano State, have not been successful. Kano with over one million votes is seen as strategic. The ruling party lost the state to the NNPP in 2027 and has been making moves to recapture it.

Consequently, the administration fears that it would lose a large chunk of the votes in the northern Nigeria in 2027 and is making desperate moves to consolidate its strength in the South.

With Mbah’s defection on Tuesday, the APC controls three of the five South East states, consolidating its position as the biggest party in the region.

PDP’s internal crisis fuelling exodus

The PDP has been struggling with internal discord since its defeat in the 2023 presidential election. Factions remain loyal to different power blocs, particularly between the G5 Governors and the national leadership.

The lack of a clear direction, leadership disputes, and allegations of marginalisation are pushing some governors to seek more stable ground.

“There’s no longer a sense of unity or purpose in the PDP,” said one top party official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “People are looking out for their interests.”

Currently, despite moves by PDP leaders, including Seyi Makinde, Oyo State governor, there are growing fears the planned convention may not hold due to litigations and serious moves to stop the convention by aggrieved members.

Many state chapters are in crisis, and there is no sign that issues would be settled before the 2027 polls.

Days ago, the forum of PDP chairmen suspended the Abia and Imo states’ chairmen for allegedly working for the ruling party.

The leadership crisis in PDP, which has pitted Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister and former Rivers State governor, against prominent individuals within the party, does not seem to be ending soon – although some of these politicians have moved to the ADC.

Pundits say many of some of the governors are moving to the APC because they fear for their chances in the 2027 general election, especially if the PDP doesn’t agree on who are the authentic chairman and general secretary of the PDP.

Many think it is an issue that could come back to haunt the party.

There are fears among the governors over who would sign their nomination forms, with many thinking their opponents can capitalize on that to unseat them in court.

Lure to be close to central government

Pundits say one of the most important incentives for governors’ defection is access to federal power. In Nigeria’s highly centralized system, the federal government controls significant resources from allocations and infrastructure projects to security apparatus.

So, by joining the ruling party, which currently rules the country under President Bola Tinubu, pundits say perhaps the governors believe they can secure more favourable treatment for their states. Perhaps, the very least is to avoid being politically sidelined by the administration.

“Governors don’t want to be in opposition when crucial funding and development projects are being shared. It’s political survival,” said Chika Ibe, a public policy expert at the University of Abuja.

On Tuesday when Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu defected to APC, he framed the decision as one of development, not politics, citing the need to move to the ruling party to work more closely with President Tinubu.

Sam Amadi, a policy strategist and expert in law and governance, pinned the gale of defections on what he described as “the need for self-preservation.”

Amadi, who is the director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, noted that many of the governors defecting do not do so because of political ideology.

According to him, the need for security remains a major factor.

“They have no confidence in the electoral process,” he said.

Coercion, fear of prosecution for corruption

There are reports that several opposition politicians, especially incumbent opposition governors, are being pressured to join the APC ahead of the 2027 general election.

Sources say many of the governors have their investments or businesses in Lagos and the FCT and don’t want to lose out.

Others fear for their political future, and as such, have decided to give in to pressure.

Some days ago, the Forum of State Chairmen of the PDP, in its resolutions, condemned what it called the “APC’s undemocratic and desperate efforts to intimidate PDP leaders, including governors, senators, and lawmakers, into defecting.”

It warned that such actions posed a serious threat to Nigeria’s democracy and risked creating a one-party state.

Similarly, pundits say many defecting politicians and governors to the APC are doing that to secure their future, avoid investigation, or preserve influence as the PDP struggles with internal crises.

“Some are calculating and want to avoid being tried after office, so joining the ruling party seems the safest thing to do,” said Hassan Saliu, national president of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA).

“The PDP is facing the implications of its loss of power and doesn’t appear ready to give the APC a run for its money, so anything can happen.

“In the Third World, parties are only strong when they are in power. The PDP has been out of power for over 10 years now, and politics here is cash and carry.”

Okechukwu Osuoha, PDP deputy national legal adviser, sees the gale of defections as results of intimidation, but wondered why the governors are falling prey easily.

Strategic positioning ahead of 2027

Pundits say the defections of PDP governors to the APC are not just political headlines; they are part of a larger realignment ahead of the 2027 elections.

Driven by power calculations, access to resources, and internal party frustrations, perhaps these moves reflect the dynamics of a political system where ideology often takes a back seat.

With the next general elections less than two years away, many politicians are thinking beyond their current positions.

Amadi, earlier quoted, said the governors see their membership of APC as nothing but security for their businesses and assets, especially for post-governorship security.

“They have no confidence in the electoral system, based on assessment of risks.

“If the governor of Rivers State can be removed without any consequence, why do you think they will not work to secure their future while still in the office?” he asked.

“They think that this government is so powerful and can do anything.” (BusinessDay)