As the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers head into the final stretch, Nigeria still has a glimmer of hope to advance to the CAF playoff round: even if South Africa wins their last game.

According to the latest playoff standings after deduction of points against lowest-ranked teams as adjusted by CAF, Gabon (16 pts) and Burkina Faso (15 pts and fixtures completed) appear to have sealed two of the four available playoff slots.

That leaves Niger (15 pts and fixtures completed), Cameroon (14 pts), DR Congo (13 pts), Uganda (12 pts), and Nigeria (12 pts) in a tight race for the remaining two tickets.

Nigeria, currently 10th in the ranking with 12 points and a +3 goal difference, can still qualify — but only under specific circumstances.

How Nigeria Can Qualify for 2026 World Cup playoff

If Nigeria defeats Benin Republic 1-0 (or by any two-goal margin), and South Africa also wins, the Super Eagles would move to 15 points and finish second in Group C, thus becoming eligible for inclusion in this inter-group playoff ranking.

However, qualification will then depend on how results elsewhere unfold.

Niger have completed their fixtures and can only wait for other outcomes.

Cameroon, who host Angola, are favorites to win — likely locking up one playoff spot.

DR Congo also play at home to Sudan and are strong contenders to claim the other.

Uganda, who face Algeria away, seem the least threatening given the tough fixture.

Two Qualification Scenarios

A. For Direct Qualification (as group winners):

Nigeria must beat Benin 1-0 or by any two-goal margin.

South Africa must lose or draw their final match.

B. For Playoff Qualification (if South Africa wins):

Nigeria must beat Benin by at least four goals to boost goal difference and leapfrog Burkina Faso in the playoff standings.

At least two of Cameroon, DR Congo, or Uganda must lose.

(A draw between DR Congo and Uganda would also favor Nigeria’s chances.)

The Bigger Picture

The Super Eagles’ fate now hangs not only on their performance in Abidjan but also on results in Yaoundé, Kinshasa, and Algiers.

With four playoff spots available, a big win could still push Nigeria into the last phase of qualification.

But anything short of that: and the three-time African champions might find themselves missing consecutive World Cups for the first time since 1994.