Nearly two decades after reforms were introduced to liberalise the market and boost generation capacity, Nigeria’s electricity industry has failed to deliver meaningful progress, the Nigerian Society of Engineers has said.

This assessment was delivered by a former president of the Nigerian Society of Engineers, Tasiu Gidari-Wudil, at the 29th edition of the NSE October Lecture Series on Friday in Abuja.

The former president, in his keynote lecture, said the reforms, which were designed to unlock private investment, improve generation and expand access to electricity, have not achieved their intended targets. Installed capacity, he noted, still hovers around 13,000 megawatts, while average generation remains stuck below 50 per cent of that figure.

He said the ambitious reforms starting with the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 have yet to translate into meaningful improvements for Nigerians.

“The sector has failed to deliver the promised transformation nearly two decades after liberalisation,” the former president declared at the gathering, which brought together policymakers, industry experts, and engineers to discuss solutions to the country’s electricity crisis.

“If you ask whether there has been significant progress since 2005, the short answer is no. By now, we should have exceeded 30,000 megawatts, but due to political interference, regulatory lapses, and weak implementation, progress has been far below expectations.

“Eighteen years after the legislation was passed to liberalise the market and boost capacity, the electricity industry is still far from achieving its goals,” Gidari-Wudil lamented.

He stressed that the sector has been plagued by chronic outages, infrastructural decay and economic sabotage, remains a monumental barrier to national development.

According to him, persistent gas supply constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and commercial inefficiencies have rendered the reforms ineffective and the resultant problem cuts across the entire electricity value chain.

“The major problems are everywhere, from generation, transmission, to distribution. The distribution companies, in particular, must look inwards to curb rampant commercial and collection losses, which remain the bane of electricity supply in Nigeria.”

He added that while private sector participation has introduced some accountability, mismanagement and consumer indiscipline continue to undermine progress.

“Mismanagement thrives when utilities are under government, but even private operators have failed to instil accountability. Consumers also play a part. Everyone wants free electricity, but no one dares to drive away from a petrol station without paying. Until we confront this culture, reforms will not work,” he said.

The lecture, themed “Evaluating Nigeria’s Power Sector Reforms: 2005–2023: A Quantitative Analysis of Technical Performance and Regulatory Impact”, provided a critical review of reforms that broke the National Electric Power Authority into successor companies, created the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, and later paved the way for private ownership of generation and distribution firms.

He added that despite investments of more than $10bn since privatisation, Nigerians continue to face daily blackouts, frequent grid collapses, and unreliable service. Transmission losses average between 8 and 12 per cent, while distribution efficiency varies significantly across the 11 electricity distribution companies, with collection rates sometimes as low as 30 per cent.

The former National Electric Power Authority staff further pointed to policy inconsistencies and political interference as key obstacles.

Yet, Gidari-Wudil offered glimmers of hope, praising the 2023 Electricity Act for enabling state regulators in 11 states and paving the way for an independent system operator armed with IoT technology to monitor units in real-time.

“We are moving towards a US-style model where every state has its public utilities commission, and even villages can form cooperatives for self-generation,” he said, drawing from his US regulatory training.

He advocated for cost-reflective tariffs, transparent subsidies and robust stakeholder engagement, warning that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission must improve service monitoring beyond feeder levels to individual customers via smart meters.

He stressed that regulators must be allowed to operate independently if the sector is to recover.

“The reforms were ambitious and well-designed, but poor execution and lack of political will have slowed them down. The Electricity Act of 2023 provides opportunities, but it must be implemented faithfully. The sector also continues to grapple with weak infrastructure, non-cost-reflective tariffs, and poor service monitoring. For instance, regulators currently monitor service quality only at feeder levels, rather than at individual customers’ meters, making it difficult to track whether consumers are actually receiving the electricity they pay for,” he said.

He also highlighted the growing trend of state-level electricity regulators, with 11 states having already set up agencies.

“This is a step in the right direction, but these state commissions must learn from the federal regulator’s 20 years of experience to avoid repeating past mistakes.

“The solution is near, and we have the technical know-how in this country,” Gidari-Wudil said. “Unfortunately, we don’t have the ears of government. Until the political leadership begins to take technical advice seriously, the power sector will continue to struggle.”

In her opening address, the NSE President Margaret Aina Oguntala, noted that the lecture served as a platform for the NSE to articulate its stance on national issues, drawing together policymakers, industry experts and engineers for candid discourse.

She echoed the call for action, said the institution would escalate recommendations from the lecture to the government and continue engaging with policymakers to ensure reforms are properly implemented.

“We expect the government to take ownership of the recommendations and governments at all levels to engage Nigerian engineers for practical, homegrown solutions to begin immediate implementation. If that happens, like our guest of honour said, there will be light,” she said, emphasising the society’s six-decade commitment to engineering excellence amid Nigeria’s poverty, food insecurity and energy crises.

On his part, the special guest of honour and the Managing Director of Sahara Group Kola Adeshina, called for more responsibility from all stakeholders.

The MD represented by the Head of Generation, Godwin Emanuel, urged for collective reflection. “The solution is right here,” he said, stressing engineers’ role in power generation, transmission and distribution reforms. “We must ask ourselves what contributions we have made to address the power challenges. The solution is not far away; it lies in our collective commitment,” he said.

The NSE’s October Lecture, instituted to showcase past presidents’ insight on critical economic issues, underscored that reforms demand long-term commitment beyond political cycles. (The PUNCH)