The 42-month-old Russia-Ukraine war remains central to global diplomacy, with US President Donald Trump’s separate meetings with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky raising hopes for peace. While the talks drew international attention, former Nigerian External Affairs Minister Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, in an exclusive interview with Channels Television, explained that the outcomes of the meetings have wider implications beyond Europe. He stressed that the conflict could reshape Nigeria’s economy, particularly in the areas of energy sustainability and trade.

Enjoy the excerpts!

Did you ever see Mr. Vladimir Putin going on American soil, especially in the case of Ukraine?

On a military base, for that matter. These are interesting times diplomatically. There are losers, and there are winners. Now, let’s first talk about the losers at the Alaska summit. The first is the International community, because there is an outstanding International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for the arrest of Putin. And yet the United States allowed him on American soil.

Yes, indeed, the United States is not a member of the International Criminal Court. So, to that extent, the US could claim that it is not legally binding for it to have arrested Putin. But as the most powerful country in the world, its behavior undermined the legitimacy of the ICC. So, the international community is a loser. That’s number one.

The second loser Is Europe. This war is being fought on the soil of Europe, and yet Europe was sidelined; it was not invited to Alaska. The third loser is Ukraine, with Volodymyr Zelensky as the president. He is the other protagonist in this war, and he wasn’t invited to Alaska.

The fourth loser Is the United States itself. I have never, since I’ve been studying diplomacy, heard of a situation where a president will go to a major summit like that and not be prepared. There’s no doubt that Trump acts by impulse, and you don’t act by impulse on a major issue like that.

The main winner Is Putin because Putin, who had been marginalised and sidelined internationally for how many years now, was released from, I would say, the cell of isolation where he was put because he was dodging the ICC warrant. Here, he was being received by the most powerful man in the country, red carpet and everything.

With your many years of experience studying global diplomacy, does this move the needle towards peace in any way?

Of course not, it doesn’t. And there is one last evidence I want to draw your attention to. When the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, turned up in Alaska, he was wearing a T-shirt. And what was written on that T-shirt? Soviet Union. Not Russia, Soviet Union.

In other words, Putin aims to reconstitute the Soviet Union that was dissolved when it fell apart. And he was telling you that the first nation he was going to grab was Ukraine.

So, he didn’t move towards peace at all because Ukraine had let him know, and Europe had let him know, that they were not going to allow Russia to swallow Ukraine. Because if they allowed Russia to swallow Ukraine, they know that other nations like Georgia and the Baltic countries that were part of the Soviet Union were going to be the next targets.

That Alaska summit did not move the world, did not move Europe, and did not move even the United States towards peace, a peaceful resolution of the war.

The war has affected the global economy, food, energy, transport, and inflation. Even Nigeria’s economy and some parts of the world felt it, and even stock markets. How much of an impact would this Alaska meeting have on the world economy?

Well, already as far as the Alaska summit is concerned, the main summit itself, we all know how G3 is made in most of the world. You mentioned Nigeria just in passing, but I will say, don’t do so because of this war, Trump had put a tariff, a body of 50%, on India that was buying Russian oil as an alternative.

What do you think would be a fair arrangement to ensure lasting peace without Russia appearing to bully Ukraine in the negotiations?

Well, I think that there have been leaks from the decision arrived at in Alaska. And part of the leak is that the United States agreed with Russia that Russia could keep the area conquered, plus the rest of the provinces that have not been conquered. But in exchange, there will be this security guarantee for Ukraine.

And the language that is being used is that even though Ukraine is not going to be allowed to join NATO, the guarantee that it will be given will be like an Article 5 guarantee, that an attack on one member of NATO will be like an attack on all members. Therefore, the kind of guarantee that will be offered to Ukraine is that an attack on Ukraine will be treated as an attack on all NATO members.

Now, if that is true, it would be difficult for Ukraine to reject that kind of guarantee. And the reason why almost all leaders of Europe are following Zelensky to Washington is to ensure that he’s not bullied. We seem to think that the war between Russia and Ukraine is localised. It isn’t. Russia, since the time of the Soviet Union, has always been regarded as a danger to the whole of Europe. That’s why NATO was formed.

So, in a way, European leaders’ following Zelensky to Washington is a message to Trump that what affects Ukraine affects the whole of Europe. And to that extent, they are showing support for Europe and for Ukraine. But I must say that the reason NATO was formed was that, without the United States, Europe could not stand up to Russia. And that has never changed.

If Trump decides to do to Europe, to European countries, buying oil from Russia what he has done to India, then Nigerian oil will be at a premium as an alternative to people who don’t want tariffs as a punishment for buying Russian oil.

So, Nigeria could find itself affected by what has been going on in Europe. We have to watch very closely what’s going to happen. It’s a foreign policy issue, but it can also become a domestic economic issue for a country like Nigeria.

What do you think would be a major lesson that you think that the whole world and Nigeria could learn or take away from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

It is a big lesson for countries in the Global South: don’t get yourself caught in a conflict between the big boys. In a way, Putin is right that he had an understanding with the United States that when there would be disintegration of the Soviet Union, there was an agreement that NATO would not move East to share a frontier with Russia. It was the United States that broke that agreement, and Ukraine found itself caught in the middle.

The US, especially under Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, pushed a section of the elite of the Ukrainian Republic into a confrontation with Russia. I remember it was the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) that encouraged a coup in Ukraine that overthrew a president who was supposed to have been. He had to be lifted by helicopter out of the presidential grounds. And there’s a recording of Hillary Clinton saying, “No, this is our candidate. This is the person we want. We will make money available for the election.”

So, Putin is right that there was a coup in Ukraine before Zelensky then won the so-called election. The direct answer to your question is this: Nations in the Global South must avoid becoming pawns in the conflicts of the Global North. Let us define our national interests very narrowly so that it does not become part of the national interests of any of the global powers, whether it is Russia, whether it is the United States, or whether it is China; we should all be careful.

Especially in a country like Nigeria, we call ourselves the biggest Black power in the world. We should pay very close attention to the implications of what we call ourselves; the Black population of the world looks up to us. And to that extent, we should take ourselves seriously, and we shouldn’t get caught on the side of any of the global powers. We are a medium power, and we should be serious about that. (Channels TV)