The often complex and fluid nature of politics in Nigeria makes the game and its outcome largely unpredictable. In the 2023 presidential election, many wrote off the Labour Party (LP) candidate and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, as wasting his time and resources; but he would later shake and shock the Nigerian political landscape with an electrifying electoral performance never before witnessed in Nigeria’s recent history.

Riding on the crest of the “Obi effect” as his electoral success was later termed, even Okada riders, security guards, and artisans among others got elected into political offices, using the LP platform.

As the country approaches the next presidential election in 2027, the major parties and gladiators are currently keeping their trump cards to their chests while engaging in what observers termed “a game of wits” to outdo one another.

As it is now, what is perhaps predictable, except God and nature decide otherwise before the 2027 elections, is that President Bola Tinubu will seek re-election and will be on the ballot as the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Daily Sun recalls that leading opposition figures in the country, including former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, immediate past Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former Osun State Governor and the immediate past Minister for Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, former Cross River State Governor, Senator Liyel Imoke, former President of the Senate, Senator David Mark, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation(SGF), Babachir Lawal, former Rivers State Governor and immediate past Minister for Transport, Chibuike Amaechi, former National Chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie- Oyegun among others, recently adopted the ADC, hitherto one of Nigeria’s fringe parties, as a coalition political platform to sack President Tinubu and his party, the APC from power come 2027.

The emergence of the ADC as a coalition platform appears to have heightened political discourse and activity in the country. While pro- APC politicians and President Tinubu’s loyalists have variously dismissed it as inconsequential as far as the 2027 presidential election is concerned, a broad spectrum of Nigerians appear to have welcomed it and expressed the optimism that it would bring about change in 2027.

The coalition has also been attracting defectors from the APC and the PDP across the country, signifying what looks like a major political reconfiguration. Observers aver that with Atiku’s PDP faction emptying into the ADC and the remnants led by the Minister for FCT, Nyesom Wike, effectively allied with the APC, the coalition has now seamlessly replaced the PDP as the country’s main opposition party.

Given the debilitating internal crisis the PDP has suffered and the haemorrhage that hit it before and after the unveiling of the coalition- the defection of its governors, federal lawmakers and chieftains to the APC- the Wike faction of the party (PDP) and the ruling party, analysts agree, have succeeded in causing the evisceration of what the party was before 2015 when it was ousted from power by the APC.

However, a very reliable party source revealed that the PDP may not field a presidential candidate in 2027 or if does, such a candidate will be one who will not pose a serious challenge to President Tinubu’s re-election. The source told Daily Sun that some PDP elements are mulling reaching out to Obi and convincing him to run on the party’s ticket.

“Some top members of the Wike PDP faction are planning to persuade Obi to return to the party and contest the 2027 presidential election on its platform. They want to use Obi to shore up the faction’s credibility and that of the presidential election itself. The depleted PDP and its affiliate, the APC, are working on the theory that Obi winning the South-East, and one other state in South -South, will help divide the ADC votes there while giving President Tinubu and the APC the unassailable advantage of bloc votes in the rest of Southern Nigeria, “ a source told Daily Sun.

Last week, speculations about Obi returning to the PDP gained currency when the party’s former national chairman and now APC chieftain, Ali Modu Sheriff alleged that the former Anambra Governor was on his way back to the PDP. Strangely, Obi has so far not refuted the allegation. Rather, what his media office did was to disown a viral press statement purportedly issued by the 2023 Labour party presidential candidate pledging allegiance to the ADC and distancing himself from the PDP.

Corroborating the alleged moves by some PDP leaders to lure Obi back to the party, a party chieftain from Bayelsa who craved anonymity “because my soul and body have left my party and are now with the ADC even though I’m still a card carrying member of the PDP and staunch supporter of our dear governor, Diri, the remaining governors and stalwarts of our badly battered party who are actively collaborating with the APC and who may defect to the ruling party before the 2027 elections, having openly and tacitly endorsed President Tinubu’s re-election as the case may be, want to use Obi to bring a semblance of seriousness, relevance and validity to a party that has now practically become a support group within the APC.

“They intend to achieve this by giving him the presidential ticket but even the blind can see that what remains of the PDP cannot take him to Aso Rock because its presidential ticket is worthless. It will be unfortunate if Obi falls for this bait,” the source said.

Within the coalition itself, the gladiators appear to be keeping their trump cards close to their chests. In the camps of the main coalition eggheads, especially those of them with presidential ambitions – Obi, Atiku and Amaechi – the euphoria that greeted the adoption of, and metamorphosis of the ADC into a mega political platform, Daily Sun learnt, has thawed and replaced by caution, muted brinkmanship, intrigues and the struggle for spheres of influence and dominance, as well as clandestine arrangement for a fall back option or Plan B, should the coalition suffer ship wreck midstream.

Though the ADC is not yet decided on a standard bearer for the 2027 presidential election, Obi and Amaechi have informally made their presidential ambitions known. Atiku on the other hand, amidst calls for him to bury his ambition on the ground of age and in deference to the informal principle of North- South rotational presidency, has largely been making allusions to a 2027 presidential interest. However, political analysts and ADC insiders hold the view that the idea of the coalition is built around Obi and Atiku’s presidential ambitions, though many say they prefer an Obi-El Rufai ticket while others insist Atiku- Obi ticket is the winning formula. The Amaechi mix is believed to represent a strategic positioning for a reasonable chunk of the pie. His appearance on the ADC/ coalition fray after a somewhat hiatus from the political scene reinforces the view in certain quarters that the former Rivers State Governor may have joined the race to act as a buffer between the duo of Obi and Atiku with eyes on the former VP’s presidential ambition and a long-term sight on a joint presidential ticket with him.

“We are confident of President Tinubu’s re-election but in politics you don’t leave anything to chance. Given Nigeria’s ethno- religious and regional realities in terms of politics and voting pattern as can be gleaned from the results of last presidential election, an Obi- El-Rufai ticket or Atiku- Obi ticket is bad news but an Atiku- Amaechi ticket fits into our projection, it’s a less dangerous ticket,” a source within the APC volunteered.

The crisis in the Labour party notwithstanding, both factions in the party, Daily Sun’s findings revealed, are prepared to coalesce to adopt Obi as a presidential candidate, should the coalition fail.

“Don’t forget he is still our member, he hasn’t resigned from the party,” a member of the Julius Abure faction quipped when asked if Obi could run on the party’s ticket.

But there is yet, the PDP window for the former Anambra governor. Apart from Sheriff, former Minister for Information and founding member of the PDP, Professor Jerry Gana is also hinting on the former Anambra governor’s likely return. In a recent interview, Gana said “I’m a researcher, and I research opinions. In the northern states, Peter Obi under the PDP will defeat any candidate, because our people are very fair-minded.”

It would be recalled that Obi and his supporters pulled out of the PDP in 2022, just days before that party’s presidential primary, on the grounds that the process had been designed to emasculate him.

In the ruling APC, outward optimism about the president’s re- election, expressed daily by many party chiefs notwithstanding, there also appears to be apprehension about the growing popularity of the ADC and the alleged secret romance of the opposition party by seven sitting APC governors in the North. The seven governors who Daily Sun gathered want power to return to the North in 2027, have allegedly perfected plans to defect to the ADC to work for the emergence of Atiku as the party’s presidential flag bearer. Observers say their eventual defection could signify a major political shift and erosion of Tinubu’s support base in that part of the country.

However, a master political strategist in the game of politics himself, there are feelers that President Tinubu may have already activated a high impact political manoeuvres to torpedo or counter any plan to harm him politically in the North or temper with his share of votes there.

Recently, he hosted in the presidential villa, former Kano State Governor and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential election, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and some analysts were quick to link the meeting to the rumoured defection of the former governor to the APC.

However, Daily Sun has been informed that the former Kano governor and the president may have reached a deal that has nothing to do with defection to the APC or his emergence as a running mate.

“I can tell you for free that Kwankwaso may have been contracted by the president to roughen things and pollute the water for Atiku in the North. Forget that a day after the visit, Kwankwaso mounted an attack on Tinubu, and then went ahead to receive APC defectors in Kano into the NNPP is all part of the game. His job may be to divide Atiku’s bloc Northern votes by running for the presidency again on the platform of the NNPP or any other fringe party,” Dr. Amos Ntu, a social affairs commentator said.

Muhammed Alkali, a political analyst shares a similar sentiment. “Both PBAT (President Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and RMK (Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso) are from the same school of politics. They love to dominate their environment and they believe in the master – servant relationship with their followers.

“As VP, I don’t think RMK will be malleable. The best deal is to pay off RMK so that he can repudiate the coalition and run on a different platform. The aim is to split Atiku’s Northern votes. Unless, of course, if the coalition is ready to give the ticket to RMK with Obi as his running mate.”

Weighing on Tinubu’s chances in the North, Dr. Aminu Abdullahi, a former House of Representatives aspirant on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), said both Atiku and Tinubu are eyeing the late president’s traditional 12 million votes in the North. “But the situation is dicey. Buhari won’t be on the ballot and is not alive to give directives to his supporters as to voting pattern, so, those 12 million voters will likely be making voting decisions independently. None of the gladiators will inherit the entire 12 million votes en bloc, however majority of Northerners are angry about the situation of things currently- poverty, insecurity, hardship, hunger, and malnutrition. The anger in the North will certainly dictate the voting pattern,” Dr. Abdullahi said. (The Guardian)