Political heavyweights from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC), and Labour Party recently came together to form a coalition aimed at unseating the ruling APC, but they face significant headwinds. In this piece, PHILIP IBITOYE examines the threats to the coalition’s ambitions.

AS Nigeria’s political landscape begins to heat up ahead of the 2027 general elections, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)-led coalition has emerged as one of the most vocal challengers to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Riding on a wave of public disenchantment with the APC’s performance on issues such as inflation, insecurity, and youth unemployment, the ADC coalition has positioned itself as an alternative voice for “true change.”

But beyond rhetoric and declarations of intent, the coalition—which consists of former presidential candidates/aspirants Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi, all with presidential ambitions—faces a complex web of issues and internal contradictions that could derail its plans before the first ballot is cast. From a lack of elected heavyweights to questions about funding, internal cohesion, and public credibility, the ADC’s bid to unseat a deeply entrenched ruling party faces an uphill battle.

Lack of sitting governors may present a severe challenge to ADC’s chances

One of the most glaring deficiencies in the ADC-led coalition is the absence of sitting governors, senators, or even influential federal lawmakers among its ranks, according to political analysts. In Nigerian politics, where power is often leveraged through incumbency, access to state resources, and patronage networks, this deficit is far more than symbolic; it is existential.

When the APC was formed in 2013 as a merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), it immediately commanded political legitimacy. At the time of its formation, the APC boasted a robust bench of governors, including those from Kano, Lagos, Rivers, and Nasarawa states. These governors controlled not just votes, but vast patronage networks that helped mobilise supporters, bankroll campaigns, and shape public opinion.

The ADC coalition, in contrast, lacks this critical asset. So far, no sitting governor has crossed over to their side, and there is little indication that any will. Without the gravitational pull of influential officeholders, the ADC coalition struggles to present itself as a serious contender. This is not merely an optics problem, it’s a structural handicap. In Nigeria’s state-by-state electoral contest, governors remain key power brokers capable of delivering entire regions or sabotaging them, Dr Oluwashina Adebiyi, a Political Science lecturer at the University of Ilorin (UNILORIN), told Sunday Tribune.

“They [coalition] don’t have governors in their party. They have a committee of aggrieved people that left their old parties.” For him, governors “control the finance, they control everything,” making them indispensable to any serious political offensive.

This view is echoed by Mubarak Jamiu of the Department of Politics and Governance, Kwara State University (KWASU), who said the lack of organisational strength makes it harder for the ADC to build momentum or attract credible defectors ahead of 2027.

“The coalition lacks the political structure and grassroots presence at the state and local levels that are necessary to challenge an Incumbent president,” Jamiu said.

Moreover, the weakness of the ADC in the legislative arm further compounds its challenges. Although the senator representing the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ireti Kingibe, recently defected from the Labour Party to the ADC, the party has weak representation in the Senate and House of Representatives, which limits its ability to influence national discourse, frame legislative debates, or gain consistent media attention. Legislators are not only lawmakers, they are political actors who help shape narratives and attract funding. Their absence within the ADC coalition reinforces the perception that the party is politically marginal.

Besides, in the zero-sum game of Nigerian politics, where strategic alliances often hinge on influence within the National Assembly, the ADC’s lack of parliamentary presence makes it less attractive to would-be defectors from the major parties. For context, when the APC formed its merger in 2013, it had dozens of lawmakers in both chambers of the National Assembly and later added then-Speaker of the House, Aminu Tambuwal, to its fold, bolstering its offensive substantially.

However, Dr Wasiu Olayimika Kewulere of the Department of History and Diplomatic Studies, KWASU, believes the coalition can still be successful. Tracing the history of coalitions back to the days of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) pre-independence, Kewulere said the ADC has the key ingredients to succeed, especially if it hones a credible message to dissatisfied voters.

“The presence of sitting governors and legislators is essential but not mandatory. It’s very germane for ADC to attract defections — that adds value. But the experience of the Labour Party in the 2023 presidential election shows a party can be popular without such defections, if its message resonates with citizens,” he said.

Familiar faces, old problems

Another problem plaguing the ADC coalition is the perceived ideological inconsistency of its members. Many of the coalition’s most prominent figures were, until recently, members of the APC or PDP, the same establishment they now claim to oppose. This includes former ministers like Rauf Aregbesola, now the National Secretary of the ADC, lawmakers, and state officials who, while now criticising the APC, were integral to the policies and politics that shaped its tenure. This raises an unavoidable question in the minds of voters: is this truly a new alternative, or just the same old wine in a new bottle?

For a coalition to succeed on a reformist agenda, it must inspire trust. That trust comes from integrity, consistency, and the demonstration of a clean break from the past. But Dr Bola Bakare of the Department of Political Science, UNILORIN, believes the current ADC lacks these qualities.

“It is going to be extremely difficult for them to build credibility because they are people that we know. We know their past. We knew what they did when they were in power. So if they are now coming as saints, that is the mistake they are making,” Bakare told Sunday Tribune.

Adebiyi agrees, calling the ADC coalition “a committee of aggrieved political party members” and noting that the lack of ideological clarity raises questions about the coalition’s motives and cohesion. Political analysts noted that, unless the ADC attracts fresh, untainted voices, including youth leaders, civil society champions, and policy experts, it may struggle to win over a sceptical electorate already fatigued by political recycling.

ADC may struggle with funds

Politics in Nigeria is an expensive endeavour. From statewide mobilisations to media blitzes, campaign rallies, polling agents, and party operatives across 176,846 polling units nationwide, it takes billions of naira to compete effectively. Here again, the ADC coalition faces a monumental challenge. Analysts are unanimous in saying that without strong financial backers, the coalition may not survive the campaign season.

Mubarak noted that funding in Nigerian elections often comes from officeholders or wealthy patrons who either support the candidate’s vision or expect personal benefits. “Without these backers, it is difficult to sustain a serious national campaign,” he said.

Bakare agreed, recalling former President Muhammadu Buhari’s multiple failed presidential runs until 2015.

“Buhari tried three times with his perceived integrity and sainthood. He couldn’t become president of Nigeria until people like President Bola Tinubu, Amaechi, Saraki, and co. came together to fund his election before he became president,” he said. “That’s to tell you how huge the money needed to win Nigerian elections is. So the ADC will have a problem funding the presidential election at the centre.”

With very few elected officials currently in its ranks, the ADC faces an uphill task to raise funds and wage a credible campaign in all parts of the country. Even if the party overcomes its funding challenge and manages to win public trust, it still faces the hard reality of weak national structures. Unlike the APC and PDP, both of which have deep organisational roots across the 36 states and the FCT, the ADC is barely functional in many localities.

Elections in Nigeria are not won solely in the cities or on social media, they are won in the rural areas, among market women, and community chiefs. The ADC coalition’s current lack of political operatives in these constituencies puts it at a significant disadvantage.

Internal fractures may derail ADC ambitions

No coalition or political party can survive without a coherent leadership structure. At present, the ADC alliance seems to function more as a loose confederation of homeless politicians than a’disciplined political movement. There are already murmurs of power struggles and ideological inconsistencies. Who will be the presidential candidate? How will the coalition resolve disputes over zoning and candidate selection? What happens when founding members feel sidelined or betrayed by pre-election calculations? These are questions the coalition has yet to answer.

Bakare warned that a political movement based solely on “hatred for the sitting president” is bound to be fragile and internally contradictory.

“They are birds of different feathers who only wrapped themselves because of their hatred for the sitting president. They don’t have a common ideological position,” he said. His view supports concerns that the coalition may unravel once a candidate is selected with many supporters of Obi already warning that the ADC will not have their support if their preferred candidate is not nominated.

Jamiu noted that the absence of compromise within the party may prove its downfall. “Many of its leading members are strong-willed individuals who may find it difficult to compromise or submit to a unified leadership,” he said.

With figures like Atiku, Obi, and Amaechi potentially vying for the presidency under one banner, their inability to harmonise ambitions could trigger a collapse. In contrast, the APC merger succeeded because all members, including Atiku at the time, coalesced behind the party’s nominee in 2014 and went into the 2015 general election united.

While some political observers see the ADC-led coalition as a commendable effort to reshape Nigeria’s political map, they argue that noble intentions alone do not win elections. Without governors, senators, adequate funding, or a credible and unifying figure to lead the charge, the coalition remains politically fragile.

To have a fighting chance in 2027, the coalition will have to urgently address its structural deficits, attract fresh and credible faces, build local-level party organs, and craft a resonant, people-centred agenda. Anything less, and it risks becoming just another footnote in Nigeria’s long history of failed political alliances. (Sunday Tribune)