The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is undergoing a political collapse in the South-south, a region that was once its strongest base. The All Progressives Congress (APC), through strategic alliances, federal influence and Tinubu’s charisma, is reshaping the region’s political map.

At the formative stage of the APC found it extremely difficult to make an inroad into the South-south. The zone treated the party like a leper and avoided any close relationship with it. It was blackmailed into submission, with most people describing it as a Hausa-Fulani or a Boko Haram party. Those who mustered the courage to join the party and to become its foot soldiers in the region were dismissed as betrayers and conspirators.

Such a negative reaction towards the APC was understandable, given that the then-President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, is from Bayelsa State, in the South-South, and was seeking re-election on the platform of the PDP. So, the region seemed united to deliver Jonathan.

Besides, the zone had been the stronghold of the PDP since the return to civil rule in 1999. The party easily secured the support of the people in presidential, governorship and all elections in the South-south states of Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross Rivers.

However, Edo broke its covenant with the PDP in 2008 when Comrade Adams Oshiomhole disrupted the political unity in the zone and bulldozed his way into power on the platform of the Action Congress (AC). He repeated the same feat when he secured his re-election four years later.

Nevertheless, Edo State returned to the PDP fold in 2020, following the defection of the then-incumbent Godwin Obaseki, after he fell out with Oshiomhole. With the defections of Obaseki and his subsequent victory in that year’s off-cycle governorship in the South-south state, the zone was once again unified under the umbrella party.

From Edo, the battleground in the political contest between the PDP and the APC shifted to Bayelsa State. In the 2019 governorship election in Bayelsa, there was an electoral revolution against the then Governor Seriake Dickson and his anointed candidate in the PDP, Douye Diri. The APC, which fielded Chief David Lyon in the election, resoundingly defeated the PDP.

However, the APC victory was short-lived, as PDP bounced back, following a Supreme Court judgment on the eve of the inauguration of Lyon as governor. The judgment, which took everyone by surprise, restored the PDP as the dominant party in Bayelsa and the South-south zone in general.

It took the defection of the then Cross River State governor, Prof. Ben Ayade, for the APC to gain a foothold in the South-south region in 2021. Ayade hinged his decision to join the party on the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s attributes. Others say it was hinged on the governor’s realisation that Cross River, having lost its oil wells, needed to embrace the government at the centre.

With the emergence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu two years ago, the APC has become more dominant in the southern parts of the country, including states that used to be the stronghold of the PDP. For instance, the APC dealt a heavy blow to the PDP’s bid to retain Edo State in last year’s off-cycle governorship election, with the victory of Monday Okpebholo of the APC over Asue Ighodalo of the PDP.

Following the victory in Edo State, the APC took control of two out of the five states in the zone, leaving PDP with Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta states.

Tinubu’s politics of inclusivity and stakeholders’ engagement recently ignited a massive political realignment in the South-south zone. The zone is gradually but swiftly moving towards political conformity under the broom party. Delta State led the upset in April 2025 following the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori to the APC.

Delta’s case was revolutionary. Oborevwori moved alongside his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, members of his executive council, members of the House of Assembly, the local government chairmen and the state executive committee of the PDP. The tsunami uprooted the PDP structures in Delta and nailed the party’s coffin in the state.

The injury it inflicted dealt a devastating blow to the PDP. PDP leaders outside the zone were visibly shaken and wondered how they could lose a state that acted as its major cash cow and produced its vice presidential candidate in the last general election. It came as a shock to many that Okowa, who was the running mate to the party’s presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was in a hurry to go.

Oborevwori told the gathering during the reception organised to welcome him to the broom family that he was overwhelmed by the love of President Tinubu and that the movement to the APC was meant to support his re-election in 2027.

His words: “What you have seen here today is a movement, not a defection. We have consulted stakeholders at all levels. Mr. President has shown us love. We cannot face him in 2027 to work against him. The love is organic.”

Okowa also said: “This bold decision is in the best interest of our people. It was not about me or the governor, but the fact that there is a need for us to connect to Abuja. This is a bold, patriotic and well-intentioned move.”

While PDP was still battling to decode the Delta State reality, Akwa Ibom, another of its traditional strongholds, collapsed helplessly into the APC. The Akwa Ibom Governor, Umo Eno, led his deputy, the majority of the state executive council, members of the state House of Assembly, federal lawmakers and local government chairmen to the APC on June 7, 2025.

Giving reasons why he moved the entire state governance structure to the APC, Eno said the move was motivated by “enlightened state interest predicated on the need to align our state with the centre to attract more federal presence.”

The governor said Tinubu’s track record of achievements inspired him to join the broom party. He described his defection as a gift to Tinubu, adding that he had been an admirer of the President since his days as the Lagos State governor.

He said: “President Tinubu has possible in recent history of the Nation faced the most daunting economic challenges of any leader. With boldness and deep convictions, he has faced these challenging moments head-on and come up with solutions that, though in the immediate aftermath are tough for Nigerians, are beginning to have long-lasting and sustainable effects.

“It is a known fact that I have never hidden my admiration for the President and his patriotic devotion to national renewal, which he is engendering today. This movement falling on a day that we mark Sallah is our gift to our President, and it has a divine connotation.”

With Delta and Akwa Ibom formerly moving to the APC, all eyes are on Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State to toe a similar path. Diri is reportedly under pressure to join the progressives. If he failed to move Bayelsa to the APC, the only homogeneous Ijaw state would perhaps become a political orphan in the zone, with the responsibility of shouldering the needs of a sinking party.

The governor is said to be in a dilemma, following signals that some critical PDP stakeholders, especially his predecessor and Senator Henry Seriake Dickson, are not interested in joining him in the APC. Dickson has been openly criticising President Tinubu, predicating his angst on the emergency rule in Rivers State and indirectly telling Diri that he would have nothing to do with the APC. Apart from Dickson, other federal lawmakers and PDP leaders loyal to Dickson are reportedly not disposed to defecting to the APC.

Those who want the movement, however, are telling Diri to take Bayelsa to the centre either with or without Dickson, using Akwa Ibom as a case study where the governor opted for defection without his predecessor, Emmanuel Udom, and other PDP leaders.

Undoubtedly, Diri has been an admirer of Tinubu and his leadership style. He recently described the president as the grandmaster of collaboration. He praised the President for initiating the construction of a coastal road designed to link Lagos to coastal states.

Besides, Bayelsa is receiving unusual attention from the Federal Government under Tinubu; a similar partnership that Dickson could not galvanise when he was a governor, despite having Dr Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa, as the president.

There are insinuations that Diri has entered into a political covenant with the centre to support Tinubu by moving to the APC in exchange for his re-election. It was gathered that the second term deal he brokered with notable leaders of the APC was the reason the party threw Chief Timipre Sylva, its governorship candidate, under the bus. Therefore, all eyes are on him to fulfil his side of the bargain.

Apart from political agreement, some stakeholders maintain that the survival of Bayelsa and its development depend on moving the state to the party at the centre. As part of the political unification, the Delta State governor and his predecessor recently led a high-powered delegation to Diri in Bayelsa and held discussions behind closed doors. They were said to have gone to the state to woo Diri, their brother, to the APC.

A former President of the Ijaw Youths Council (IYC) Worldwide, Udengs Eradiri, shares the same sentiment. He called on Diri and Dickson to move Bayelsa to the APC. Eradiri, a Commissioner for Youths and later Environment, told the two political leaders that there is no better time than now to move the Ijaw nation into the APC.

He insisted that the Ijaw would gain nothing by being in opposition to the administration of President Tinubu, but would only be left to wallow in the political wilderness. He appealed to Diri and Dickson to forego personal interest and see the bigger picture, insisting that their joining the APC would be for the overall interest of the Ijaw nation.

Eradiri said, “The time for political realignment for the Ijaw Nation is now. The current political equation in Nigeria presently will alienate the Ijaw race if we don’t re-strategise immediately and take a decision to join the ruling party. I am calling on Senator Seriake Dickson and Governor Douye Diri to join the APC now to guarantee the Ijaw nation a place in decision-making at the centre.”

Apart from Bayelsa, Rivers State has been partially moved to the APC and poses no threat to Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. The entire PDP structure is controlled by Nyesom Wike, the immediate past governor, who is currently serving as a minister in Tinubu’s administration.

As part of the deal to resolve the political crisis that led to the ongoing emergency rule in the state, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, who is currently suspended, is weighing the options of joining the APC. Stakeholders believe that even with the current political situation in Rivers, the state is already in the APC’s bag. (The Nation)