It has been two years since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the oath of office as Nigeria’s 16th president, promising to chart a bold new course for Africa’s most populous nation.

After Tinubu’s victory at the presidential poll, unveiling his agenda, expectations were high among Nigerians that he would change the narrative and reposition the country after the eight years of the Muhammadu Buhari administration.

It was an era where many agreed that the country retarded.

However, half way through Tinubu’s administration, that ray of hope, that many Nigerians had seemed to have given way for despair.

Truth must be told, upon assumption of office in 2023, President Tinubu inherited a troubled economy with a ballooning debt profile, a volatile naira, and unsustainable fuel subsidy spending.

True to his technocratic roots, he wasted no time in wielding the reform axe, yanking off the fuel subsidy on his first day in office and soon after, collapsing multiple exchange rates into a single market-determined rate.

Tinubu, a former Lagos State governor came to power on the “Renewed Hope” mantra which was the rallying cry of his campaign.

But as the first half of his tenure closes, that hope hangs by a thread for millions grappling with the economic, security, and social turbulence unleashed by his administration’s reforms.

The economic shockwave

The results were immediate and severe. Petrol prices skyrocketed from about N200 to over ?1,000 per litre. The naira, once at N450 (official rate) to the dollar, plunged, trading at an average of N1, 600, at a point it was almost N2, 000.

Inflation soared to a two-decade high, peaking at 34.80% in December 2024. Though recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show a cooling, headline inflation fell to 23.71% in April 2025, after a change in methodology in January.

However, a joint report by the World Bank and the NBS estimated that more than 129 million Nigerians, over half of the country’s population, now live below the national poverty line, a steep rise from 104 million in 2023. The World Bank also predicted that more Nigerians would fall into poverty in the next few years despite Tinubu’s reforms in the economy.

Experts link this surge to the combined pressures of subsidy removal, soaring inflation, and stagnation in the job market.

Power woes and tariff hikes

As Nigerians adjusted to fuel and forex shocks, they were jolted again in April 2024, when the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved a tariff increase for Band A electricity consumers, from N68/kWh to N225/kWh. The decision, meant to reflect the true cost of power, drew fierce public backlash.

Though the tariff was later revised to N206.8 and then N209.5/kWh, the damage was done. Businesses scaled back or shut down. Students studying under dim lanterns found no relief. Even government offices in some states reportedly defaulted on payments.

Security in crisis

While the administration touts progress on infrastructure and investment, insecurity has worsened in large swaths of the country.

In the North East, a resurgence of Boko Haram violence claimed over 300 lives within five weeks, according to a report by Nextier SPD titled “Re-thinking Nigeria’s Counterinsurgency Strategy.”

The story is equally grim in the North Central. In Benue, Nigeria’s food basket, relentless attacks by armed groups have pushed food inflation to 51.76% year-on-year because farmers are afraid to go to their fields.

Plateau State remains a hotbed of ethno-religious violence. In April alone, over 100 civilians were killed in coordinated attacks. Meanwhile, in the North West, notorious bandit leaders like Turji Bello continue to operate with impunity, abducting villagers and taxing farmers.

Even the southern states are not spared. In Ondo, the brutal murder of APC Ward Chairman Nelson Adepoyigi days after his abduction, despite a N5 million ransom, sparked outrage.

As the Tinubu’s administration matches on, citizens are questioning what the second half of the four years rule will bring.

Many people want the President to reassess his campaign promises and work towards fulfilling them.

Experts believe that due to the method of implementation, right now the Tinubu’s administration policies are not being felt at the grassroots by ordinary Nigerians.

Economists say finding a solution to the rise in prices of essential commodities; especially food which has resulted in untold hardship to the citizenry should be government priority now.

There is deep worry on the streets across Nigeria about the high cost of living, with many people complaining that they spend a large chunk of their salaries on transportation and food.

“Reforms have been made, but for me nothing much seems to have changed in the last eight years, maybe we are paying for everything, including tax, but it is more like rhetoric with ordinary people not filling any impact of policies,” Samson Umoh, a financial expert, said.

The financial expert advised the President to make sure the prices of food are stable in the next two years, while fighting inflation, noting that most Nigerians are only interested in feeding themselves, rather than politicking.

“People just want to eat, to be able to afford food, basic items and not these defections or 2027 they are bothering themselves about,” he added.

Many others want President Tinubu to tackle the security challenge facing the country, which has led to needless and rampant killing of citizens by insurgent and terrorists especially in the middle belt.

They say the President is not doing enough to make security agencies account for not doing enough to stop the killings.

“We need governance, not politics,” said Olaoye Abdulrahman, a small business owner in Lagos. “We should be seeing the results of the reforms now if the president truly wants a second term.”

Yet, with the president eligible to seek a second term, many fear the remainder of his tenure could be consumed by campaign calculations rather than concrete governance.

We are already seeing that in the last few weeks, with the polity dominated by defections of politicians to the ruling party, while opposition parties are engulfed in crisis and coalition talks ahead of 2027.

But many believe President Tinubu still has the time to correct the errors of the last two years.

“The President can actually use the second half to correct his wrongs and make Nigerians happy again,” Sanya Adekunle, a Lagos-based student, said. “But I’m afraid that he might not have time for that. 2027 now dominates national discourse.”

Despite the harsh realities, some Nigerians still hold out hope that the turbulence of reform will yield long-term stability.

“Change is never easy,” said a banker who spoke anonymously. “But we need consistent follow-through. No more half-measures. The next two years must be about results, not rhetoric.”

However, the President has consistently called for patients from Nigerians for his economic reforms, which he said was necessary to save the economy and the country from insolvency.

Speaking at an occasion to mark the second year of his administration, the President said the latest indices showed that his administration’s reforms are yielding results.

“I proudly affirm that our economic reforms are working. We are on course to building a greater, more economically stable nation,” Tinubu said.

“While implementing the reforms necessary to strengthen our economy and deliver shared prosperity, we have remained honest by acknowledging some of the difficulties experienced by our compatriots and families. We do not take your patience for granted,” Tinubu said. (BusinessDay)