The simmering discontent over Ibadan’s stranglehold on Oyo State politics may be reaching a boiling point. For a long time, the city’s population advantage has translated into an electoral juggernaut.

This has left politicians from four other zones of Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo and Ibarapa, with an uphill battle to win the governorship.

Also, the dominance of Ibadan indigenes in the state’s politics has become a rallying cry for those demanding a more inclusive and representative leadership structure.

One of the questions agitating the minds of non-Ibadan indigenes, as the debate rages on ahead of the 2027 governorship election is: Can Oyo State break free from Ibadan’s grip and forge a more equitable path forward?

Oyo’s five political zones

For the past 26 years of uninterrupted democracy in Nigeria, the political cycle in Oyo State has solely been dominated by Ibadan Zone, which has the highest voting strength.

The Ibadan zone has produced governors that have ruled for almost 22 years. When the incumbent governor, Seyi Makinde, completes his second term in office, Ibadan would have spent almost 24 years in office as governor out of the 28 uninterrupted years of democratic rule in the country, while Ogbomoso produced governor for four years.

There are five political zones in the state – Ibadan (11 local governments); Oke-Ogun (10 local governments); Ogbomoso, (five local governments); Oyo (four local governments) and Ibarapa (three local governments).

In the 32-member Oyo State House of Assembly, Ibadan zone has 16 legislators, Ibarapa has two legislators, Oyo- three legislators, Ogbomoso zone has four and Oke Ogun has seven legislators. In Ibadan zone, each of the five local government areas of Akinyele, Ibadan South West, Ibadan North, Ibadan South East, and Ibadan North East have been producing two legislators for the state parliament since 1999. The remaining six local governments in Ibadan have also been producing one lawmaker each.

Each of the Saki West, Oorelope, Iwajowa , and Kajola, produced one legislator, while the remaining three lawmakers were produced in three pairs – Iseyin/Itesiwaju, Irepo/Olorunsogo and Saki East/Atisbo.

In Ibarapa, the Ibarapa East with headquarters in Eruwa, produces one lawmaker, while the other two councils in the zone jointly produce one lawmaker.

In Oyo zone, each of Atiba and Afijio councils has one lawmaker, while Oyo East and Oyo West jointly elected one legislator.

In Ogbomoso zone, Ogo Oluwa amd Surulere councils jointly elected on lawmaker, while the remaining three councils produced one lawmaker each.

Oyo State is divided into 14 federal constituencies for the House of Representatives. Ibadan zone has 46.4 per cent, Oke-Ogun has 21.4 per cent, while Ogbomoso has 14.1 per cent. The Oyo and Ibarapa zones have 7.1 and 11 per cent respectively.

In Ibadan Zone, Ona-Ara/Egbeda, Ibadan North-East/South-East, Lagelu/Akinyele, Ibadan North West/South West, Ibadan North, and Oluyole completely produced six lawmakers among the 14. The 11th local government in Ibadan which is Ido, joined Ibarapa East, which is one of the three councils in Ibarapa zone to produce a member of House of Representatives. But producing representatives of the Ibarapa East/Ido federal constituency has been on rotational arrangement between the two councils.

Also, the remaining two councils of Ibarapa Central and Ibarapa North have one representative in the House of Representatives.

In Oke Ogun zone, the four local governments of Iseyin/Kajola/Iwajowa/Itesiwaju jointly have one representative in Abuja, while Olurunsogo/Orelope/Irepo. As well as Atisbo/Saki East/Saki West, have one each, making a total of three federal legislators from the zone.

The Ogbomoso zone has two House of Representatives members, with each representing Ogo-oluwa/Surulere, and Ogbomosho-North/South/Orire federal constituencies. The four local governments of Afijio,/Atiba/Oyo East/Oyo West, in Oyo zone jointly have one federal legislator.

In the three senatorial districts in the state, Ibadan has the lead in two among them, while Ogbomoso has the lead in the third district.

Oyo South:

The senatorial district comprises nine local governments, with six in Ibadan and three in Ibarapa. The councils in Ibadan are Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East, Ibadan South-West, and Ido, as well as Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, and Ibarapa North.

The two zones have produced senators for the district as follows: 1999 to 2003 – Ibarapa (Peter Adeyemo), 2003 to 2007 – Ibadan (Abiola Ajimobi), 2007 to 2011 – Ibadan (Kamarudeen Adedibu), 2011 to 2015 – Ibadan (Olufemi Lanlehin), 2015 to 2019 – Ibadan (Adesoji Akanbi), 2019 to 2023 – Ibadan (Kola Balogun), 2023 till date – Ibadan (Sharafadeen Alli).

Oyo Central:

The senatorial district consists of 11 local governments. The include all the four councils in Oyo zone – Afijio, Atiba, Oyo East, and Oyo West, as well as two local governments – Surulere and Ogo Oluwa in Ogbomoso zone, apart from five council of Akinyele, Lagelu, Egbeda, Oluyole, and Ona Ara from Ibadan zone.

Since 1999, Ibadan has produced senator for the district four times, while Oyo has produced two times, and Ogbomoso once. They are 1999 to 2003 – Ibadan (Lekan Balogun), 2003 to 2007 – Ibadan (Teslim Folarin), 2007 to 2011 – Ibadan (Teslim Folarin), 2011 to 2015- Ogbomoso (Ayoade Adeseun), 2015 to 2019 – Oyo (Monsurat Sunmonu), 2019 to 2023 – Ibadan (Teslim Folarin), and 2023 till date – Oyo (Yunus Akintunde).

Oyo North:

The district has 13 local governments, with all the 10 councils from Oke-Ogun Zone, and the remaining three of Ogbomosho North, Ogbomoso South ad Orire from Ogbomoso. The councils from Oke-Ogun in the district are Atisbo, Irepo, Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, Kajola, Olorunsogo, Orelope, Saki East, and Saki West.

Ogbomoso zone has produced senators for the district four times since 1999 till date while Oke-Ogun has done it three times.

Available information revealed that fom 1999 to 2003 , Ogbomoso-born Brimmo Yemi Yusuf, was the senator for Oyo North. Also, the sequence followed fhis pattern: 2003 to 2007 – Oke-Ogun (Robert Koleosho) 2007 to 2011 – Oke-Ogun, (Gbenga Babalola), 2011 to 2015 – Oke-Ogun (Ayoola Agboola), 2015 to 2019 – Ogbomoso (Abdulfatai Buhari(, 2019 to 2023 – Ogbomoso (Abdulfafai Buhari), and 2023 till date – Ogbomoso (Abdulfafai Buhari).

Deputy govs from 1999

Findings showed that for the past 26 years in the ongoing Fourth Republic. Oyo State has had eight deputy governors. Two among them came from Ibadan, one from Ogbomoso, and the remaining five came from Oke-Ogun Zone.

As gathered, from1999 to 2003, Oke-Ogun produced the deputy governor in person of Iyiola Oladokun. But between 2003 and 2007, the state had two deputy governors. The first was from Ogbomoso, Adebayo Alao-Akala, who served from May 2003 to January 2006. His principal, Senator Rashidi Ladoja was impeached and was out of office for 11 months.

Alao-Akala became the governor and chose an Ibadan person, Hazeem Gbolarumi, as deputy. In December 2006, the Supreme Court’s judgment re-installed Ladoja. Alao-Akala reverted to his deputy governorship position, while Gbolarumi was kicked out.

By May 2007, another Ibadan person, Taofeek Arapaja became deputy governor and served till 2011.

From 2011 to 2019, Otunba Moses Adeyemo from Oke-Ogun was deputy governor. Also, Rauf Olaniyan served as deputy governor from 2019 to 2022, when he was impeached. Another Oke-Ogun man, Adebayo Lawal became the deputy governor and is serving in the capacity till date.

Ibadan has produced deputy governors for four years and 11 months, Ogbomoso for three years and one month, while Oke-Ogun has also produced deputy governors for 18 years. By 2027, Oke-Ogun would have produced deputy governors for 20 years in the state.

Governorship position

Records showed the trajectory of governors that Oyo State has produced from 1999 till date. From May 29, 1999 to May 28, 2003, Ibadan produced Lam Adesina, and Rashidi Ladoja. From May 29, 2003 to January 7, 2006. From January 12, 2006, to December 7, 2006, Ogbomoso produced Adebayo Alao-Akala, when Ladoja was impeached. Ladoja then returned and served as governor from December 8, 2006 till May 28, 2007. On May 29, 2007 to May 28, 2011, Ogbomoso produced Adebayo Alao-Akala. Thereafter, the governorship returned to Ibadan. From May 2011 to May 2019, Ibadan produced Abiola Ajimobi. Ibadan also produced Seyi Makinde from 2019 till date. By 2027, Ibadan would have produced governor for 23 years and one month in the state.

Akala advocates rotational governorship

A former governor of the state, the late Adebayo Alao-Akala, in his autobiography – Amazing Grace, released to commemorate his 70th birthday, spotlighted on the persistent inequality that has marginalised non-Ibadan indigenes. He appealed for inclusivity, rooted in the principles of democracy.

“This is not an attempt to take a swipe at Ibadan; rather, it is about impressing upon her the realities of a state that belongs to all of us.” He argued that while Nigeria’s rotational presidency aims to foster unity, Oyo State’s political structure remains stagnant, favouring a single zone. Alao-Akala called for a consensus approach to governance that champions candidates from all senatorial districts, advocating a rotation system that could empower the often-overlooked regions of Oyo, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa.

Oke-Ogun leaders want governorship in 2027

Former Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu, in a recent press interview, revealed that the Oke-Ogun zone would not accept anything less than the governorship slot in the 2027 Oyo State governorship election.

He emphasised that leaders from Oke-Ogun, particularly those affiliated with the All Progressives Congress (APC), have commenced strategic meetings to ensure the zone produces the state’s next governor after Governor Seyi Makinde.

According to Shittu, political leaders in APC’s Oke-Ogun have resolved that other sections, particularly Ibadan, should concede the governorship to another zone in the interest of fairness.

He argued that Ibadan has dominated leadership in Oyo State, producing four out of the five governors since the return to democracy in 1999.

“It’s time for Ibadan to concede to Oke-Ogun,” Shittu said, rejecting the argument that Ibadan’s population ensures its dominance in governorship elections.

“Ibadan making up over 50 per cent of Oyo State’s population is a flawed argument. Can anyone confidently say that over 50 per cent of residents in Ibadan are Ibadan indigenes?”

Shittu drew a parallel with national politics, noting that northern Nigeria, with a larger population, conceded the Presidency to a Yoruba candidate. He urged fairness and inclusivity in Oyo State politics.

“A situation where the deputy governorship is permanently zoned to Oke-Ogun is unacceptable and doesn’t serve the interests of our party or the state itself,” Shittu said.

Preference for Ibadan indigenes as guber candidates

The aggregate sampled opinions of non-Ibadan indigenes revealed that the efforts to break through the odds have remained stacked against them, especially the governorship position. They noted that the population distribution, which heavily favours Ibadan, has become a determining factor in the state’s electoral politics.

The reality has led major political parties to play it safe, often opting to field Ibadan indigenes as their gubernatorial candidates.

The pattern is evident in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), where Ibadan politicians have monopolised the tickets in recent years.

One of the prominent politicians in Oke-Ogun zone, who preferred anonymity, said: “The implications are clear: non-Ibadan indigenes are finding it increasingly difficult to break the mould.

“As the chances of our ascension to the governor’s seat grow slimmer, concerns are mounting.

“But some Ibadan indigenes have recognised the unfairness of this dominance. They have been joining their voices with non-Ibadan indigenes to call for a more inclusive leadership structure.”

‘Parties, not Ibadan indigenes, pick candidates’

President-General, Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII), Chief Ajeniyi Ajewole, a legal luminary, told Saturday Sun: “Governorship of a state is determined, firstly by political parties that sponsor candidates. Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala was not from Ibadan. He was from Ogbomoso. He became governor of Oyo State. So, it depends on political parties.

“As a matter of fact, some people visited me recently from Oke-Ogun. They are thinking of 2027 and they want cooperation from Ibadan. “Ibadan dominance can only be possible in politics if electorate know that the person that is being sponsored is good enough to rule Oyo State.

“When you talk of Ibadan, it is not Ibadan Indigenes alone that live in Ibadan. All over Oyo State and beyond, people came to settle in Ibadan. Ibadan is a very free place that accommodates everybody. So, anybody can become governor, one, if your political party sponsored you, and people see you as being fit and capable enough to rule the state. So, there is no magic about it.”

According to a recent report by the Nigerian Investments Promotion Commission (NIPC), the state’s population is about 8.3 million. It was further discovered that Ibadan has approximately 44.7 per cent, which is 3.7 million.

Sources within PDP and APC said the issue of Ibadan dominance is not an issue for discussion by political parties, as democracy is a game of numbers.

“Our aim is to win elections. Anyone that is capable of winning an election for our party is the one we shall present, irrespective of his political zone,” they insisted. (Saturday Sun)