Analysts have assessed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s technology development and digital economy agenda for the country as his administration recently crossed the midterm line and gave a verdict of average performance.

They said drop in internet users due to increased data subscription tariffs, over regulation, and inadequate support to tech entrepreneurs have all combined to dog Tinubu’s tech programmes in the past two years.

Over one million internet users drop out

Speaking with Daily Trust on Tinubu’s tech programmes, Mr Gbenga Sesan, the Executive Director of Paradigm Initiative (PIN), said though access had been growing consistently for a while after a hiccup triggered by the previous government’s policy inconsistency and mismanagement of NIN-SIM linkage processes, the recent drop of about one million internet users due to affordability issue should worry the Tinubu’s government.

Sesan said not only has affordability reduced due to the 50% hike in tariffs by telecommunications operators; the general economic downturn in the country has also added to the reduction In internet users in the country.

“Internet access had been growing consistently for a while, after a hiccup that was triggered by the previous government’s policy inconsistency and mismanagement of the NIN-SIM linkage process, but the recent drop in user numbers, accounting for more than 1 million users, is due to the affordability challenge. Not only has affordability reduced due to the 50% hike by telecommunications operators, the general economic downturn in the country has also added to the challenge,” the Paradigm Initiative boss said.

With SIM-NIN linkage kidnapping, other crimes still persist under Tinubu

With more than half of the country’s population now having their data and identities captured in the NIMC and having their SIM cards linked to their NIN, the cases of insecurity have yet to reduce, forcing many Nigerians to question the rationale behind NIN-SIM linkage.

The rising spate of kidnapping and killings in the country is casting doubt on whether the NIN-SIM policy is being utilised under the present government for the purpose for which it was introduced.

Media reports have indicated that between January and May, more than 150 persons were kidnapped across states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT.)

Prior to 2025, 3, 63 persons were abducted in 2023 and about 2, 206 in 2024.

Within the period under review, bandits and kidnappers killed about 4,736 persons across the country, 2,586 in 2023 and 1,110 in 2024 and about 40 this year, according to media reports.

These are aside from the reported killings of 443 persons by Boko Haram insurgents in the North East within the period, 268 in 2023, 120 in 2024 and 55 this year.

This is despite the fact that all the mobile lines and active SIM cards have been linked to their owners’ NINs. The total number of active mobile lines in Nigeria stands at 155m.

We provide necessary information to security agents – Telcos

Telecom operators in the country said the security agents rather than the operators should be asked why many kidnappers and bandits using registered SIM cards to commit crimes have not been apprehended.

The chairman of Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Engr Gbenga Adebayo, said the telcos had always been providing needed and necessary information to security agents when they ask.

“The security agents should be asked what they do with the information we provide for them whenever they ask. We provide geo-location information and other necessary information when they demand it,” he said.

Adebayo was responding to an accusation against the operators and NCC of not doing enough on using SiM/NIN registration to stop kidnapping.

This same statement by telcos had earlier been made by former Minister of Communication and Digital Economy, Isa Ibrahim Pantami, last year. The former minister said the failure by the security agencies to utilise the generated data from the SIM-NIN synchronisation had encouraged kidnapping, banditry and other criminalities.

“The NIN-SIM policy has been working. However, the relevant institutions fighting criminality are to be requested to ensure they utilise it effectively when crime is committed,” Pantami said.

He said the policy was not the problem but the non-utilisation from the relevant agencies.

On support to tech startups in the country, analysts who spoke with our correspondent said tech startups have never really received government support beyond lip service.

They said the Startup Act was a good move that should have translated into potential support but that also appears to have stalled.

However, the founder of Majadtek Pro Technology Ltd, Engr AbdulMuiz Oyewole, said the situation with internet access and affordability under the current administration is mixed.

Oyewole, who is an AI and Cloud researcher, said while the continued deployment of 5G technology offers significant future potential for the country’s digital economy, the devaluation of the naira has substantially eroded affordability.

Telcos, facing higher operational costs, have increased data prices—some analyses show average 1GB costs rising over 65%—directly impacting consumers and businesses, he explained.

The Majadtek founder said this economic pressure has led to a noticeable stratification in service quality; premium, reliable internet now commands a much higher price, at the disadvantage of many users and SMEs.

He said: “From a combined technology, entrepreneurial, and business governance perspective, the situation with internet access and affordability under the current administration is mixed. While the continued deployment of 5G technology offers significant future potential for our digital economy, the severe devaluation of the Naira has substantially eroded affordability. Telcos, facing higher operational costs, have increased data prices—some analyses show average 1GB costs rising over 65%—directly impacting consumers and businesses.”

Consequently, he said despite growth in mobile internet users, overall internet subscriptions saw a dip in 2024, and broadband penetration (around 45% in early 2025) is struggling to meet the ambitious National Broadband Plan targets.

FG should encourage investment in infrastructure

Oyewole also said the Tinubu administration needs to strategically foster an environment that encourages infrastructure investment through incentives and stable policies, ensuring that the digital backbone of the economy is strengthened, not strained by these economic challenges.

He said the government’s regulation presents a dual aspect for digital businesses in Nigeria. On one hand, he said policies like those driving digital payments (CBN’s initiatives) and data protection (the Nigeria Data Protection Act) have been enabling, fostering growth and consumer trust.

He added: “We’ve seen positive steps in consumer protection and the formalisation of aspects of the digital economy.

“On the other hand, concerns about potential over-regulation, policy inconsistency, and the cost of compliance persist, sometimes stifling innovation.

“The recent developments with the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON), whose broad authority over all digital advertising was affirmed by courts in early 2025, illustrate this challenge. While aiming for ethical standards, its implementation will determine if it becomes an enabler or an impediment.

“From a governance and business perspective, the path forward requires a delicate balance: regulations must be developed through wide consultation, be evidence-based, and remain adaptive to the fast-paced digital landscape to encourage investment and allow innovation to flourish responsibly.”

Analysts also said one of the albatrosses of Tinubu’s tech agenda is the “controversial” 5% excise tax on telecom services embedded in the recently passed Nigeria Tax Bill 2024.

The proposed law which was passed in the Senate on May 8, 2025, reintroduces the 5% excise tax on telecom services first introduced in the Finance Act of 2020 under former President Muhammadu Buhari. It was suspended by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in July 2023, on the valid argument that it has potential to worsen inflation and impede access to digital services.

Subscribers will pay more for data, voice calls

One of the telecom operators’ concerns about the proposed tax law is that it would force them to further increase their tariffs and telecom subscribers in Nigeria would be paying 5% more for data and voice services if the Tax Bill is signed into law. This they said would ultimately burden consumers and affect Nigeria’s drive for broader digital inclusion.

ALTON’s Adebayo said the 5% tax on telecom services would further erode the operators’ profits and prevent them from investing more on their networks.

Adebayo who is the official spokesman for all the telcos said the industry wouldn’t accept the bill.

Telcos pay 54 different taxes under Tinubu

As of August 2024, telecom operators reportedly paid 54 different taxes, according to ALTON. They said with the sector just rebounding from currency devaluation and rising operational costs, the reintroduction of the excise duty would choke recovery efforts and slow digital inclusion. (Daily Trust)