The imminent announcement by Africa’s richest man of a likely disruption of the current structure of Nigeria’s downstream oil sector has set off alarm bells in the sector as players and investors ponder what this will mean for them and their businesses, according to a BusinessDay investigation.

Although Aliko Dangote, chairman of Dangote group, has remained tight-lipped on specific details, his hints at an impending “total overhaul” of the downstream structure have been enough to trigger widespread speculation and unease.

A total overhaul in works

During the high-profile presidential visit, Dangote told reporters that the refinery’s next phase would mark “one of the major shakeups in the entire country,” clarifying that it would not merely be a reduction in fuel prices but a much deeper restructuring of how the sector operates.

“I told the President that he had not seen anything yet. We are going on a massive trajectory, much more than what you have seen here,” Dangote said, adding that Nigerians would hear from the company “soon.”

Those remarks have ignited speculation that the Dangote Group is preparing to launch a vertically integrated retail.

Trucking strategy signals market realignment

Industry sources told BusinessDay that a key part of this transformation may involve the deployment of a dedicated logistics arm.

One source noted that Dangote is believed to be acquiring as many as 4,000 fuel trucks, which could fundamentally alter the way petroleum products are transported and distributed across Nigeria.

“If it’s true that Dangote is moving toward direct delivery from the refinery to petrol stations, depot owners will have to rethink their role in the value chain,” said a senior industry executive who requested anonymity. “We’re potentially looking at a scenario where petrol and diesel are delivered directly to stations at refinery gate prices, which could displace a whole segment of the market.”

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This would effectively consolidate the entire downstream process from refining to logistics to retail under one roof, significantly increasing efficiency but also raising competitive pressures for existing players.

Retail Expansion on the Horizon?

Beyond logistics, there is increasing chatter that the Dangote Group may soon enter the retail fuel market in a big way. Speculations include the acquisition of existing petrol station chains or the development of new branded outlets across Nigeria.

Such a move would give the Dangote Refinery direct access to end consumers, allowing it to control pricing, distribution, and retail operations, while reducing dependence on third-party marketers.

If successful, this could replicate the vertically integrated model seen in advanced markets and oil-producing countries with strong national champions.

Analysts said while this will benefit the refinery greatly, it could also create a fresh challenge around credit management in the near term.

Disruptions could also come with plans for a further expansion of refining capacity to mirror what mega refineries around the world are doing to take advantage of economies of scale.

Dangote refinery, which many regard as a big game changer, is now producing at levels capable of meeting domestic demand and could also now be in direct competition with smaller refineries in Senegal, Ivory Coast and Angola. (BusinessDay, but headline rejigged)