By FESTUS TOKUNBO

As President Tinubu marks his 2 years of administration, Mr. Tinubu and his cabinet may be living in deception, claiming the economy has improved and that the president would easily be re-elected by Nigerians in 2027. But my social-economic models predict a massive loss for President Tinubu if the presidential election is to be conducted today, based on the macroeconomic realities in Nigeria.

Since 2023, President Tinubu has promoted policies that suit the interests of the United States-led neoliberal institutions such as the World Bank and IMF while worsening the social variables of income, purchasing power and unemployment. The Nigerian interest rate was 18.5% in 2023, but now at 27.5%, it is the third highest in Africa. President Tinubu is surrounded by cabinet members with fewer practicalities on how to address the Nigerian structural problems of corruption, high inflation, internal insecurity, weak currency, poverty, food insecurity and unemployment.

The Nigerian currency failure was the highest in the world since 2023. When I was going for master's studies in the UK in 2023, my tuition fees were £18,000, which was ?13,500,000.00 at the black market rate of ?750 to 1 pound. Today, £18,000 is equivalent to ?38,700,000.00 at ?2,150 to 1 pound. The aspirations of thousands Nigerian youths to study abroad have been shattered due to the rapid failures of the naira caused by the weakening monetary policy regime of the Tinubu’s administration. President Tinubu’s economic reforms have driven millions of Nigerians into monetary poverty, while the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) recently said that 7.2 million medium and small businesses have collapsed due to Tinubu’s reform.

The APC might have adopted Mr. Tinubu as its sole candidate in 2027. President Tinubu might be offering concessions to lure the bigwigs of other political parties to the APC, weakening the opposition parties, thereby turning Nigeria to a one party system to boast his re-election in 2027. The fact remains that the Nigerian voters would determine the 2027 presidential elections, and not the state governors, parliamentary members or the party’s bigwigs. The Nigerian electorates are becoming smarter and more informed than ever in history. President Tinubu may likely be voted out of office in 2027 based on the current socio-economic realities in Nigeria.

The president must improve the social and economic conditions in Nigeria before the 3rd anniversary of his administration if he’s to stand a chance of being re-elected in 2027. The political parties would always be involved in ballot trading, as was the case in the recent governorship elections in Nigeria, but ballot trading would not determine the presidential election in 2027. The Nigerian voters would be voting based on their social-economic realities.

The main failures of Tinubu’s administration are the currency failures. The president has implemented some brilliant policies, such as the decentralisation of the electricity policy, the removal of the oil subsidy, and the unification of the exchange rate, but the elimination of the oil subsidy should have been implemented with a regulated monetary policy regime. The President would need to radically reduce the cost of governance and also diversify the international borrowing regime. President Tinubu's persistent borrowing from the IMF and World Bank in the past 2 years, majorly for financing recurrent expenditure, has worsened the socio-economic index in Nigeria due to the loan’s conditionality of market fundamentalism. The main factor that has kept millions of Nigerians in poverty despite the country’s huge mineral, environmental and ecological resources is systemic corruption. The immediate government of president Buhari was characterised by massive systemic corruption. Yet, President Tinubu’s administration has not sentenced nor jailed any cabinet official of the past administration to set a stern warning for its own cabinet of intolerance to systemic corruption. As a matter of fact, a cabinet member of Tinubu’s administration accused of embezzling a social safety fund was left off the hook without being punished or sentenced. President Tinubu must urgently implement the state policing bill to address the internal insecurity in the country.

The leading cause of poverty in Nigeria is currency poverty. It’s the value of the naira against the other basket of currencies that determines the monetary poverty index and drives more Nigerians into poverty. President Tinubu may need to radically reverse its monetary policy regime and peg the naira to N800 to a dollar to stabilise the social economic variables and improve his chances of being re-elected in 2027.

• Festus Tokunbo, Global Affairs Analyst, United Kingdom, can be reached via tokunbofestus7@gmail.com