By ZAGAZOLA MAKAMA

The fall of the strategic Malian military base in Mahou to jihadist insurgents marks a dangerous turning point in the security situation across West Africa, with mounting fears of militant expansion into neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire.

The camp in Mahou, located in the Sikasso region of southern Mali and a key buffer zone near the Ivorian border, was overrun at dawn on Thursday by fighters of the Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked coalition.

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) stationed at Mahou were swiftly overwhelmed, with many soldiers fleeing without significant resistance. Those who remained were reportedly killed on the spot.

In a propaganda video released shortly after the attack, JNIM fighters were seen parading through the camp, inspecting captured military vehicles, ammunition and other supplies – a bold signal that southern Mali is no longer immune to jihadist control.

The fall of Mahou is not an isolated event but part of a sustained campaign by JNIM to seize key territories and destabilise southern Mali. Similar attacks have been recorded in recent months in Dioura, Boulkessi, Tessit, Tombouctou, Koulikoro and Ansongo.

Until now, the south had remained relatively stable compared to the north and central regions of Mali, which have endured a decade of conflict. But the swift fall of Mahou shows that the jihadists are now turning their sights to the country’s agricultural heartland and, by extension, the southern border with Côte d’Ivoire.

With the base gone, a strategic corridor has effectively opened into northern Côte d’Ivoire – a region already targeted by militants in past attacks at Kafolo, Kong and Tengréla.

Mahou was not just another military outpost. It served as a critical defensive point for monitoring cross-border trafficking routes involving weapons, narcotics and illegal gold mining. It also protected key agricultural zones in Sikasso, the food basket of Mali. The loss of the base could compromise food security, humanitarian access, and the safety of other major towns such as Koutiala and even Bamako.

Mahou also functioned as a logistics hub for military operations, serving as a reorganisation point for troops deployed from central Mali. The large cache of weapons captured by JNIM from Mahou could now further empower its combat operations.

The rapid collapse of Mahou underlines persistent deficiencies within FAMa ranging from poor morale and inadequate training to logistical inefficiencies. The military’s inability to repel the attackers has exposed a deeper crisis within Mali’s defence apparatus.

A similar scenario played out in Boulkessi and Koulikoro, where soldiers fled their posts under intense firepower. In Mahou, witnesses say JNIM deliberately left an exit route open for troops to flee, a tactic meant to spread fear and psychological demoralisation among security forces.

The expansion of jihadist activity has reached the very gates of Bamako. On June 1, a deadly armed robbery attributed to JNIM targeted an armoured cash van in the capital’s outskirts, killing a convoy guard and leading to the theft of an estimated 3 billion FCFA. A day later, on June 4, a bomb exploded at a training facility in Mamaribougou, in the Bamako suburbs.

JNIM has also claimed responsibility for kidnapping a Turkish civilian working in a mining zone near the Guinean border. In a statement, the group accused Russia, Turkey and China of supporting the Malian junta and vowed to target their nationals and interests in the region.

On the same day as the Mahou attack, armed groups attacked the JB factory in Kirikrou Sibi, 50 kilometres southwest of Bamako. Witnesses said the militants destroyed trucks, offices and industrial machines. Several employees are missing, including a North African worker confirmed to be on site before the raid.

The factory’s Director-General, Abdoul Aziz Dia, confirmed the incident and expressed alarm at the growing threat of jihadist violence reaching deep into southern Mali’s industrial corridors.

Côte d’Ivoire, which has so far managed to contain jihadist incursions in its northern regions, is now under renewed threat. The collapse of the Mahou base removes a critical buffer on its border with Mali. Intelligence reports warn of increased trafficking of arms and fighters between Guinea, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire, the presence of sleeper cells in border forests, and direct threats to northern Ivorian towns.

Military sources say the Ivorian armed forces are reinforcing their northern outposts, particularly around Kafolo, Kong and Tengréla. However, with the fall of Mahou, the jihadist front is now closer and more mobile. The threat posed by JNIM now transcends Mali’s internal crisis. Its expansion into southern Mali poses a direct challenge to Côte d’Ivoire and other West African states. The collapse of Mahou signifies not only a military defeat, but also the breakdown of the illusion that southern Mali is safe.

JNIM’s media operations showcasing captured camps, seized millions and kidnapped foreign nationals are part of a broader strategy of psychological warfare. The group is now positioning itself as a sovereign actor, redrawing the security map of the Sahel and West Africa.

The urgent need for a regional response is complicated by political tensions. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdrew from ECOWAS earlier this year, limiting prospects for joint security efforts. ECOWAS should act now. (Zagazola)