There are ominous signs over the survival of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the South-South geo-political zone.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, the South-South geo-political zone has proven to be the stronghold of the PDP.

Aside from clearing votes in previous presidential elections, it also installed its governors in Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, and Cross-Rivers. Edo, which it lost to the Action Congress (AC) and later the All Progressive Congress (APC) between 2008 and 2020, was reclaimed in 2020, following the defection of Godwin Obaseki from APC to PDP.

Bayelsa State, which it lost through the ballot in 2019 to the APC, was recovered miraculously through the judiciary in 2020.

However, the decline of PDP’s electoral fortune in the South-South began in 2023. First was the defection of the then Cross-Rivers State Governor, Ben Ayade, to the APC. This was followed by an unimpressive performance in the 2023 presidential elections. While the party was able to retain the governorship seats in Delta, Rivers, and Akwa-Ibom, its abysmal performance in the presidential elections was a red flag.

For a zone that has been returning huge votes since 1999, the PDP could not win 50percent of the votes cast in Bayelsa and Akwa-Ibom states, and it lost Edo, Delta, Cross-River, and Rivers states to the Labour Party and the APC, respectively. Worse still, the gulf between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and former governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, and his successor, Siminalayi Fubara, widened and threw Rivers State into political turmoil. PDP’s woes were compounded when the Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, his predecessor and PDP running mate in the 2023 presidential election, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, and their supporters in the state defected to the ruling APC in April 2025.

The sombre mood at Creek Haven (Bayelsa State Government House) on Wednesday, April 23, when news of Oborevwori’s defection filtered in, provides an insight into the prevailing political uncertainty in the South-South geopolitical zone. In Bayelsa, the defection of Delta State PDP leaders was seen as a betrayal because they were blindsided, leaving them in the wilderness to chart their political future.

Understandably, the defection of Oborevwori and the loss of the huge financial war chest that Delta State brings to the table during political campaigns, has grave implications for the stability of the PDP in the South-South geo-political zone. His defection means Delta joins Edo and Cross River, which are APC states. More so, Akwa-Ibom Governor, Umo Eno, has made it clear that he would be supporting the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu and also hinted that he is on the way out of the PDP. On the other hand, no bet can be placed on Rivers State with the ongoing political turmoil in the state, which, even when finally resolved, may leave Fubara as a lame duck governor just to run out his tenure. This leaves Bayelsa State as the only rallying point for the PDP in the South-South region, Daily Sun gathered.

The question then is, can Bayelsa Governor, Senator Douye Diri, withstand the APC pressure and save the PDP from total annihilation in the South-South zone? Put differently, can Diri muster the required political stamina to re-energise the PDP in the South-South? Can he serve as the rallying governor and political figure to lead the PDP out of the quagmire it has found itself in the South-South geo-political zone?

Generally considered a peaceful politician, Diri, to those who know him, insists he is not bereft of a political strategy to navigate murky waters. Since he became governor, he has handled national assignments on behalf of the party to the satisfaction of party leaders. His chairmanship of the PDP Osun governorship campaigns, which saw to the victory of the party in 2022, boosted his political credentials as a loyal party man who could be entrusted with higher responsibilities.

On March 13, 2025, during the inauguration of the South-South zonal caretaker committee in Abuja, Diri spoke on the crisis ravaging the party and steps needed to halt the drift, declaring that ‘’no single individual is bigger than the party.’’

He further said “in our zone, which is the only area in the country where you have four governors of the party, we have all resolved and are together on this. You can see the deputy-governor of Delta, who represented the governor. I have also received messages from the governors of Akwa-Ibom and Rivers. It shows that we are together and what we need to do is to show leadership and work with the zonal committee so that our zone will again become safe and strong for the PDP’’ he said.

Diri’s optimism about a virile PDP in the South-South has since given way to anxiety about the future of the party. Between March 13, when he spoke, and now, the tide has turned against the PDP in the zone. Delta is now APC, Akwa-Ibom is ready to work for APC, and Rivers is technically for APC. What this means is that Bayelsa is left to carry the burden of the party in the South-South.

Already, there are divided opinions among the inner circle of the governor, the political leadership in the state, and public opinion on the political direction the state should take. Some believe Diri should also immediately defect to the APC, while some believe they should study the situation before moving, and yet there are those that want the state to remain in PDP.

Among the first group is Wisdom Ikuli, the Technical Adviser to the governor on Media and Publicity, who in a piece titled: ‘Political Placenta of Bayelsa was not buried in Wadata Plaza’, argued that Bayelsa and by extension the Ijaw nation cannot afford to be in the opposition. Drawing inspirations from previous political alliances struck with ruling parties by foremost Ijaw leaders such as Harold Dappa Biriye and Melford Okilo, Ikuli stated that since PDP lost power in 2015 the “Ijaws have been far from the centre and seat of power’’.

Listing several reasons, including the deliberate plot to destroy the PDP, the deceptive nature of PDP leaders, the survival of the Ijaw nation, and the need for Diri to produce his successor, he likened the PDP to a faulty vehicle that could no longer serve the interests of the Ijaw people.

‘‘Bayelsa State is not an ordinary state. It is above political creation. It is the home and headquarters of Ijaw people all over the world; thus, it should never be treated as a political orphan that can be undermined, rubbished, and humiliated by anybody because of their grip, possession, and control of Federal Power.

“There are six (6) geopolitical zones in the country. The Ijaws are majority in the geographic Niger Delta (South-South). Sadly, the Ijaws are losing their power and strength in the South-South due to their non-alignment with the power at the centre (federal) that presently dictates the pace of things. The only way to regain their diminishing power and glory is to realign with the centre. The above should not be about ego or pride. It should be a must,’’ he added.

Interestingly, Ikuli’s argument resonated with the submissions of Udengs Eradiri, who has also implored Diri and his predecessor, Senator Seriake Dickson, to lead the Ijaw nation into the APC.

Eradiri, a former Labour Party governorship candidate who has also defected to the APC, said Diri and Dickson should jettison personal interest and join the APC.

“The time for political realignment for the Ijaw Nation is now. The current political equation in Nigeria presently will alienate the Ijaw race if we don’t re-strategise immediately and take a decision to join the ruling party. I am calling on Senator Seriake Dickson and Governor Douye Diri to join the APC now to guarantee the Ijaw Nation a place in decision-making at the centre. This is no longer the time for bravado. There is nothing or no point to prove being in opposition to President Tinubu’s government, as it will only alienate Ijaws politically,’’ he said.

The counter argument against Bayelsa joining the defection train asserts that Bayelsa can cooperate with the APC-led Federal Government without Diri leading the state into the APC. One of the antagonists against defection, a member representing Ogbia Federal Constituency, Hon Mietama Obordor, said the Delta State scenario is not a blueprint for Bayelsa to copy. According to him, Bayelsa has never been a state that follows political trends blindly, but one that has carved its own identity.

Obordor averred that Diri has been cooperating with the Federal Government to attract development to Bayelsa without compromising his PDP credentials. He noted that the Ijaw nation must negotiate power and not surrender it.

Obordor dismissed as “baseless and dangerous” arguments that without defecting, Bayelsa will become a political orphan.

“The idea that the Ijaw nation must stoop to conquer is not only defeatist but inconsistent with the legacy of Dappa-Biriye, Melford Okilo, and the pioneers of Niger Delta political consciousness. These leaders sought strategic alliances, not blind allegiance. The Ijaw struggle has always been anchored on equity, not subservience.

“Today, Ijaw leaders must build platforms, not dismantle them. PDP remains a formidable platform. Rather than jumping ship, what is required is internal reform, repositioning, and revitalization — all of which are already underway,” Obordor said.

His grounds for opposing defection talks have, however, not been able to downplay talks of Diri also jumping ship. Multiple sources said Diri is weighing his options on defection. A former deputy publicity secretary of the APC, from Bayelsa State, Yekini Nabena, hinted recently that Diri’s defection plans have not worked out because of his political antecedents.

“It is obvious that my governor has been knocking on the door, but it seems the door has remained closed against him because he is a pathological betrayer. He betrayed the APC, betrayed Nyesom Wike, and betrayed his predecessors, including Seriake Dickson,” one of the sources said.

Also, a top leader of the party and a serving member of the House of Representatives alluded to the fact that Diri is not averse to joining APC, but explained that the governor will not rush to joining the ruling party. Another chieftain of the party, who is serving in the State Working Committee, also said Diri would move at the right time, stressing that the present situation of the PDP is discouraging.

Notwithstanding talks of defection, close observers of politics in the South-South geo-political zone believe Diri lacks the political clout to mount any formidable defence against APC inroads in the zone. They argued that his influence outside Bayelsa, where there are more established political gladiators like Wike, Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, and Adams Oshiomhole, is minimal. Even in Bayelsa, where he is the political leader of the PDP, political analysts are of the firm conviction that Diri has gone too far into bed with the APC leadership to pose any challenge to the party’s onslaught.

“In the build-up to the 2023 governorship election, Diri entered into a sort of political alliance with APC leaders in the state, opposed to the party’s governorship candidate, Timipre Sylva. He also practically courted the friendship of the Presidency in the bid to neutralise whatever ace Sylva had in his sleeve. Though government officials are being economical with the truth by arguing that there was no special thing the Presidency did other than providing a level playing field for the candidates, the reality, which cannot be denied, was that the Presidency did more than that by the unofficial adoption of Diri as its candidate.

“The Presidency and the party leadership at the national level abandoned their candidate. All electoral logistics were deployed in favour of Diri. It was as if Diri were the candidate of the ruling party. It was therefore not surprising that Diri, in appreciation of the yeoman job of APC leaders in the state, rewarded them with cabinet positions, several appointments, and even juicy contracts. The help APC gave to Diri implied that the governor has a political IOU with the ruling party,” sources told Daily Sun.

One of the sources further said that “President Bola Tinubu has also built a strategic relationship with the state government by taking over some projects like the Nembe–Brass Road and showing interest in the Agee Deep Sea-Port project. This invariably means Diri presently does not have the political stamina to lead the PDP in the South-South geo-political zone into battle against the APC.” (Daily Sun)