Considering the pace at which many Nigerians were leaving the country about three-four years ago, some concerned observers thought that by now the country would have been empty.

From families seeking ‘better life’, to medical and tech professionals looking for living wages, to students hoping to further their education and skills abroad and others, who just want to ‘check out’, the wave of the exodus, called ‘Japa’ in the local parlance, was obvious and unending then.

Then, the airlines struggled to fill their seats on the return leg to Nigeria because most of the supposedly passengers on the return leg were not ‘returning’.

Today, it is intriguing that the ‘Japa’ syndrome, which is fueled by the economic hardship, seems to be on decline despite the increasing hardship.

Even those who cited growing insecurity as top among the reasons to leave the country are still held back despite witnessing more violence and being in near-death situations lately.

Hardship/prohibitive cost of travel

According to BusinessDay’s investigations, the prohibitive cost of funding travels abroad now, no matter how near, is a major reason for the decline.

About three years ago, an intended traveler can budget from N1 to N2 million for all the travel expenses, from visa, return ticket, accommodation and upkeep, today, flight alone is almost N2 million.

Janice Elebuwa, a travel agent, blamed the high cost of airfare on the high and unstable foreign exchange rate, high cost of aviation fuel and sadly, the unnecessary high taxes charged by the government on fares and foreign airline operations in the country.

The agent, who also blamed the situation on the weak Naira and low purchasing power of many intending passengers, decried that the cheapest return ticket on the London route is from N1.4 million by North African carriers, especially Air Maroc and Egypt Air, which some dread for presumed ‘safety concerns’.

“UK and Europe flights are high, but American flights are much higher because they are long haul from N2 million now. I used to do Moscow ticket through Emirates Airlines, Air France or Lufthansa, but you need almost N3 million for return ticket on the route now because there is no direct flight and it is a long haul. How many can afford that, just ticket alone, in this harsh economy and that is why the decline may continue,” Elebuwa said.

Yohana Bisong, a lecturer at University of Jos, and many like him, who intend leaving the country due to both hardship and insecurity are shelving their plans due to the high cost of relocating abroad now.

“I have all the required documents for Canadian work visa, but the cost of processing the visa, flight and fund required for my upkeep over there and for my family down here, is prohibitive. How much does an average lecturer earn here?

“You cannot procure visa and wait for long to travel, it can expire, cancelled or work permit denied,” Bisong decried.

Abidemi Olalekan, an accountant, who is in Bisong’s shoes, noted that work permits and permanent visas are not cheap again, as the requirements have increased, fees tripled and stress unending.

“The cost of procuring any category of visa at any embassy has more than doubled since the Japa wave. Sadly, the embassies are taking advantage of the situation and their workers, who conducts visa interviews are specialists at frustrating people,” Olalekan, who has had two visa denials, decried.

For Onyewuchi Akagbule, a senior Economics lecturer, with the high inflation, intended travelers need to save more and that means more time to hustle out in the sun or borrow to fund the travels.

“Many are going for the borrowing option, with a promise to pay double the loan when they settle down in abroad. But 80 percent of them default as life abroad is harsh too,” Akagbule noted.

Growing rate of visa denials

While many complain of the high cost, some others who have the means to relocate and the required papers are still held back due to the growing rate of visa denials.

In 2023, the European Union cashed in €65 million from rejected visa applications from Africans, including Nigerians. The amount represented 43 percent of all expenses generated by rejected applications in that year.

Last year, the United Kingdom government reportedly denied approval for around 430,000 visa applications from Nigerians, while confirming issuance of about 255,000 visas.

The United States of America is even more open with its visa denials to Nigerians, citing several reasons, even when the applicants have all the required documents.

“I live in Lagos, but had to travel to Abuja for visa interview. I had all the documents, but was denied visa for no reason. The lady who interviewed me at the American embassy said she was worried why an accountant, who claimed to be successful, is living his job and country. That was the ground of her denial. I am not applying again because that will amount to another round of wasting money in these hard times,” Olalekan lamented.

Many who are facing the same situation are worried over the increasing decline in visa approvals despite the high visa fees.

“You cannot pay as much as from N200,000 to N400,000 for different categories of visas in some of these embassies and they deny you visa. The visa money should be refunded or paid when approval is sure,” Bisong said.

New visa/immigration policies

The decline in the Japa syndrome is also due to the new visa and immigration policies of most of the host countries, especially study visas.

A recent UK Home Office data showed a 38 percent decline in study visas issued to Nigerians from March 2023 to March 2024.

The decrease followed a January 2024 rule change limiting dependents for international students, except in research-focused postgraduate programmes.

Though, overall issuance peaked in June 2023, it slightly decreased since.

As expected, the number of visas for Nigerians fell from 50,000 to 45,000 amid a broader 6 percent drop in main applicant visas, according to the data.

Again, the plan of the UK government to bar foreign students from bringing their spouses and children on academic grounds in the country except on studying “high-value” degrees may have been implemented as the government keep expressing worries over the rising number of dependants in the country.

Sadly, many Nigerian students intending to further their education in the UK, do not go for the approved high-value courses such as science, mathematics, and engineering.

The above has denied many Nigerian international students the opportunities to study and most importantly, relocate to the UK with their families.

Visa overstay penalties and deportation fears

Recently, the United States of America warned Nigerians against overstaying their visas, insisting that violators could face permanent bans from re-entering the country.

The worst for many is the fact that the consular officers can access an individual’s full immigration history, making it nearly impossible to avoid penalties for past violations.

With the warning, visitors who overstay their visa for more than 180 days but less than a year may face a three-year re-entry ban, overstay of one year could attract a 10-year ban, while repeat offenders or those with serious violations risk a permanent lifetime ban.

“If you overstay your US visa, you could face a permanent ban on travelling to the United States. Consular officers have full access to your immigration history and will know about past violations. There is no such thing as an ‘honest mistake’ – it is your responsibility to use your visa correctly,” the US Mission stated.

Considering the above, Mark Oduma, an immigration lawyer, noted that many Nigerians have already violators because of the reference to past violations.

“It means you can be prosecuted or denied entry into the US based on your violation of visa overstay last year or even three to five years ago.

It is a simple was of discouraging Nigerians from visiting the US,” the lawyer noted.

In February 2025, the Nigeria government raised serious concerns about the deportation of its nationals from the United States, urging Washington to adhere to international conventions and ensure a dignified repatriation process.

But Washington, under the Donald Trump administration, seems to adhere only to what Mr. President wants as about 201 Nigerians are currently detained in US immigration centers, with around 85 cleared for deportation, according to Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. Her concern is that the deportations, especially for those with no violent criminal history, should not be sudden or traumatic.

“We are asking as a country whether they will be given ample time to handle their assets or will they just be bundled into planes and repatriated?” she questioned.

With the deportations, and continued warnings from foreign governments, it is normal for intending Nigerian visitors to be cautious with their exit dreams, Odum observed.

The Irony of realities abroad

As many presumed that the grass is only green or greener abroad, the reality outside the Nigerian shores are not as shiny as many paint them.

Many Nigerians in the diaspora are struggling harder to earn a living over there with even graduates taking up jobs they looked down on while in the country just to survive.

From taxi driving, factory work, hairdressing, barbering to car washing and others, some Nigerians are struggling it out in the name of greener pastures.

“I schooled in Canada and wanted to stay back, but my father forced me to return to run a family business. I am better of here, married and have visited Canada twice. But two of my schoolmates, who stayed back are working, but haven’t made the kind of money they have been desiring. It is not easy there, the huge taxes on everything, the freezing temperature and cold attitude of the people are things they will never tell others.

Living standard is high, but your freedom to many things is denied,” Fidelis Osemeka, a business executive, said.

Adeola Olajobi, a Nigerian trained architect, who retrained as a nurse in the UK, decried the growing number of Nigerians who are ‘jobless’ in the UK.

“I retrained as a nurse to get quick and better employment in the UK. But some who couldn’t change or retrain for better job opportunities are causing nuisance here. Many are in the prisons too.

Yes, life is better here, but it is also tougher here if you are lazy or criminal minded. There is no dodging of taxes, law or punishment here. You have to comply or leave the system,” she said.

Considering all of the above, some observers think that the decline in the Japa wave will continue as traveling abroad is now riskier and sadly, out of the reach of the many to want to escape hardship in the country. (BusinessDay)